Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological (= impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Effect of Geometric Uncertainties on the Aerodynamic Characteristic of Offshore Wind Turbine Blades

Offshore wind turbines operate in a complex unsteady flow environment which causes unsteady aerodynamic loads. The unsteady flow environment is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. In addition, geometry variations and material imperfections also cause uncertainties in the design process. Probabilistic design methods consider these uncertainties in order to reach acceptable reliability and safety levels for offshore wind turbines. Variations of the rotor blade geometry influence the aerodynamic loads which also affect the reliability of other wind turbine components. Therefore, the present paper is dealing with geometric uncertainties of the rotor blades. These can arise from manufacturing tolerances and operational wear of the blades. First, the effect of geometry variations of wind turbine airfoils on the lift and drag coefficients are investigated using a Latin hypercube sampling. Then, the resulting effects on the performance and the blade loads of an offshore wind turbine are analyzed. The variations of the airfoil geometry lead to a significant scatter of the lift and drag coefficients which also affects the damage-equivalent flapwise bending moments. In contrast to that, the effects on the power and the annual energy production are almost negligible with regard to the assumptions made.