Parameter Identification in a Tuberculosis Model for Cameroon

A deterministic model of tuberculosis in Cameroon is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes lack of access to treatment and weak diagnosis capacity as well as both frequency-and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and the most sensitive ones are identified by means of a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities are seen to have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. The model predicts that a gradual increase of these parameters could significantly reduce the disease burden on the population within the next 15 years.

Wind Farm Facilities in Germany Kill Noctule Bats from Near and Far

Over recent years, it became widely accepted that alternative, renewable energy may come at some risk for wildlife, for example, when wind turbines cause large numbers of bat fatalities. To better assess likely populations effects of wind turbine related wildlife fatalities, we studied the geographical origin of the most common bat species found dead below German wind turbines, the noctule bat (Nyctalus noctula). We measured stable isotope ratios of non-exchangeable hydrogen in fur keratin to separate migrants from local individuals, used a linear mixed-effects model to identify temporal, spatial and biological factors explaining the variance in measured stable isotope ratios and determined the geographical breeding provenance of killed migrants using isoscape origin models. We found that 72% of noctule bat casualties (n = 136) were of local origin, while 28% were long-distance migrants. These findings highlight that bat fatalities at German wind turbines may affect both local and distant populations. Our results indicated a sex and age-specific vulnerability of bats towards lethal accidents at turbines, i.e. a relatively high proportion of killed females were recorded among migratory individuals, whereas more juveniles than adults were recorded among killed bats of local origin. Migratory noctule bats were found to originate from distant populations in the Northeastern parts of Europe. The large catchment areas of German wind turbines and high vulnerability of female and juvenile noctule bats call for immediate action to reduce the negative cross-boundary effects of bat fatalities at wind turbines on local and distant populations. Further, our study highlights the importance of implementing effective mitigation measures and developing species and scale-specific conservation approaches on both national and international levels to protect source populations of bats. The efficacy of local compensatory measures appears doubtful, at least for migrant noctule bats, considering the large geographical catchment areas of German wind turbines for this species.

High temperature and vapor pressure deficit aggravate architectural effects but ameliorate non-architectural effects of salinity on dry mass production of tomato

Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is an important vegetable crop and often cultivated in regions exposed to salinity and high temperatures (HT) which change plant architecture, decrease canopy light interception and disturb physiological functions. However, the long-term effects of salinity and HT combination (S+HT) on plant growth are still unclear. A dynamic functional-structural plant model (FSPM) of tomato was parameterized and evaluated for different levels of S+HT combinations. The evaluated model was used to quantify the contributions of morphological changes (architectural effects) and physiological disturbances (non-architectural effects) on the reduction of shoot dry mass under S+HT. The model predicted architectural variables with high accuracy (>85%), which ensured the reliability of the model analyses. HT enhanced architectural effects but reduced non-architectural effects of salinity on dry mass production. The stronger architectural effects of salinity under HT could not be counterbalanced by the smaller non-architectural effects. Therefore, long-term influences of HT on shoot dry mass under salinity were negative at the whole plant level. Our model analysis highlights the importance of plant architecture at canopy level in studying the plant responses to the environments and shows the merits of dynamic FSPMs as heuristic tools.