A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

AFLP-based genetic mapping of the " bud-flowering" trait in heather (Calluna vulgaris)

Background: Calluna vulgaris is one of the most important landscaping plants produced in Germany. Its enormous economic success is due to the prolonged flower attractiveness of mutants in flower morphology, the so-called bud-bloomers. In this study, we present the first genetic linkage map of C. vulgaris in which we mapped a locus of the economically highly desired trait " flower type" .Results: The map was constructed in JoinMap 4.1. using 535 AFLP markers from a single mapping population. A large fraction (40%) of markers showed distorted segregation. To test the effect of segregation distortion on linkage estimation, these markers were sorted regarding their segregation ratio and added in groups to the data set. The plausibility of group formation was evaluated by comparison of the " two-way pseudo-testcross" and the " integrated" mapping approach. Furthermore, regression mapping was compared to the multipoint-likelihood algorithm. The majority of maps constructed by different combinations of these methods consisted of eight linkage groups corresponding to the chromosome number of C. vulgaris.Conclusions: All maps confirmed the independent inheritance of the most important horticultural traits " flower type" , " flower colour" , and " leaf colour". An AFLP marker for the most important breeding target " flower type" was identified. The presented genetic map of C. vulgaris can now serve as a basis for further molecular marker selection and map-based cloning of the candidate gene encoding the unique flower architecture of C. vulgaris bud-bloomers. © 2013 Behrend et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.