Towards a gravitational wave observatory designer: sensitivity limits of spaceborne detectors

The most promising concept for low frequency (millihertz to hertz) gravitational wave observatories are laser interferometric detectors in space. It is usually assumed that the noise floor for such a detector is dominated by optical shot noise in the signal readout. For this to be true, a careful balance of mission parameters is crucial to keep all other parasitic disturbances below shot noise. We developed a web application that uses over 30 input parameters and considers many important technical noise sources and noise suppression techniques to derive a realistic position noise budget. It optimizes free parameters automatically and generates a detailed report on all individual noise contributions. Thus one can easily explore the entire parameter space and design a realistic gravitational wave observatory. In this document we describe the different parameters, present all underlying calculations, and compare the final observatory's sensitivity with astrophysical sources of gravitational waves. We use as an example parameters currently assumed to be likely applied to a space mission proposed to be launched in 2034 by the European Space Agency. The web application itself is publicly available on the Internet at http://spacegravity.org/designer. Future versions of the web application will incorporate the frequency dependence of different noise sources and include a more detailed model of the observatory's residual acceleration noise.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.