Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological (= impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Long distance coupling of a quantum mechanical oscillator to the internal states of an atomic ensemble

We propose and investigate a hybrid optomechanical system consisting of a micro-mechanical oscillator coupled to the internal states of a distant ensemble of atoms. The interaction between the systems is mediated by a light field which allows the coupling of the two systems in a modular way over long distances. Coupling to internal degrees of freedom of atoms opens up the possibility to employ high-frequency mechanical resonators in the MHz to GHz regime, such as optomechanical crystal structures, and to benefit from the rich toolbox of quantum control over internal atomic states. Previous schemes involving atomic motional states are rather limited in both of these aspects. We derive a full quantum model for the effective coupling including the main sources of decoherence. As an application we show that sympathetic ground-state cooling and strong coupling between the two systems is possible.