Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological (= impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Rate of Belowground Carbon Allocation Differs with Successional Habit of Two Afromontane Trees

Background: Anthropogenic disturbance of old-growth tropical forests increases the abundance of early successional tree species at the cost of late successional ones. Quantifying differences in terms of carbon allocation and the proportion of recently fixed carbon in soil CO2 efflux is crucial for addressing the carbon footprint of creeping degradation. Methodology: We compared the carbon allocation pattern of the late successional gymnosperm Podocarpus falcatus (Thunb.) Mirb. and the early successional (gap filling) angiosperm Croton macrostachyus Hochst. es Del. in an Ethiopian Afromontane forest by whole tree (CO2)-C-13 pulse labeling. Over a one-year period we monitored the temporal resolution of the label in the foliage, the phloem sap, the arbuscular mycorrhiza, and in soil-derived CO2. Further, we quantified the overall losses of assimilated C-13 with soil CO2 efflux. Principal Findings: C-13 in leaves of C. macrostachyus declined more rapidly with a larger size of a fast pool (64% vs. 50% of the assimilated carbon), having a shorter mean residence time (14 h vs. 55 h) as in leaves of P. falcatus. Phloem sap velocity was about 4 times higher for C. macrostachyus. Likewise, the label appeared earlier in the arbuscular mycorrhiza of C. macrostachyus and in the soil CO2 efflux as in case of P. falcatus (24 h vs. 72 h). Within one year soil CO2 efflux amounted to a loss of 32% of assimilated carbon for the gap filling tree and to 15% for the late successional one. Conclusions: Our results showed clear differences in carbon allocation patterns between tree species, although we caution that this experiment was unreplicated. A shift in tree species composition of tropical montane forests (e. g., by degradation) accelerates carbon allocation belowground and increases respiratory carbon losses by the autotrophic community. If ongoing disturbance keeps early successional species in dominance, the larger allocation to fast cycling compartments may deplete soil organic carbon in the long run.