Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest

Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35 degrees C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20-30 degrees C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32 degrees C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1-2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1 degrees C rise in thermal optimum (T(opt)), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r(max)) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.

Multi-body simulation of a canine hind limb: model development, experimental validation and calculation of ground reaction forces

Background: Among other causes the long-term result of hip prostheses in dogs is determined by aseptic loosening. A prevention of prosthesis complications can be achieved by an optimization of the tribological system which finally results in improved implant duration. In this context a computerized model for the calculation of hip joint loadings during different motions would be of benefit. In a first step in the development of such an inverse dynamic multi-body simulation (MBS-) model we here present the setup of a canine hind limb model applicable for the calculation of ground reaction forces. Methods: The anatomical geometries of the MBS-model have been established using computer tomography- (CT-) and magnetic resonance imaging- (MRI-) data. The CT-data were collected from the pelvis, femora, tibiae and pads of a mixed-breed adult dog. Geometric information about 22 muscles of the pelvic extremity of 4 mixed-breed adult dogs was determined using MRI. Kinematic and kinetic data obtained by motion analysis of a clinically healthy dog during a gait cycle (1 m/s) on an instrumented treadmill were used to drive the model in the multi-body simulation. Results and Discussion: As a result the vertical ground reaction forces (z-direction) calculated by the MBS-system show a maximum deviation of 1.75%BW for the left and 4.65%BW for the right hind limb from the treadmill measurements. The calculated peak ground reaction forces in z- and y-direction were found to be comparable to the treadmill measurements, whereas the curve characteristics of the forces in y-direction were not in complete alignment. Conclusion: In conclusion, it could be demonstrated that the developed MBS-model is suitable for simulating ground reaction forces of dogs during walking. In forthcoming investigations the model will be developed further for the calculation of forces and moments acting on the hip joint during different movements, which can be of help in context with the in silico development and testing of hip prostheses.