Economic tradeoffs in mitigation, due to different atmospheric lifetimes of CO2 and black carbon

Tradeoffs are examined between mitigating black carbon (BC) and carbon dioxide (CO2) for limiting peak global mean warming, using the following set of methods. A two-box climate model is used to simulate temperatures of the atmosphere and ocean for different rates of mitigation. Mitigation rates for BC and CO2 are characterized by respective timescales for e-folding reduction in emissions intensity of gross global product. There are respective emissions models that force the box model. Lastly there is a simple economics model, with cost of mitigation varying inversely with emission intensity. Constant mitigation timescale corresponds to mitigation at a constant annual rate, for example an e-folding timescale of 40 years corresponds to 2.5% reduction each year. Discounted present cost depends only on respective mitigation timescale and respective mitigation cost at present levels of emission intensity. Least-cost mitigation is posed as choosing respective e-folding timescales, to minimize total mitigation cost under a temperature constraint (e.g. within 2 degrees C above preindustrial). Peak warming is more sensitive to mitigation timescale for CO2 than for BC. Therefore rapid mitigation of CO2 emission intensity is essential to limiting peak warming, but simultaneous mitigation of BC can reduce total mitigation expenditure. (c) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Massive black-hole binary inspirals: results from the LISA parameter estimation taskforce

The LISA Parameter Estimation Taskforce was formed in September 2007 to provide the LISA Project with vetted codes, source distribution models and results related to parameter estimation. The Taskforce's goal is to be able to quickly calculate the impact of any mission design changes on LISA's science capabilities, based on reasonable estimates of the distribution of astrophysical sources in the universe. This paper describes our Taskforce's work on massive black-hole binaries (MBHBs). Given present uncertainties in the formation history of MBHBs, we adopt four different population models, based on (i) whether the initial black-hole seeds are small or large and (ii) whether accretion is efficient or inefficient at spinning up the holes. We compare four largely independent codes for calculating LISA's parameter-estimation capabilities. All codes are based on the Fisher-matrix approximation, but in the past they used somewhat different signal models, source parametrizations and noise curves. We show that once these differences are removed, the four codes give results in extremely close agreement with each other. Using a code that includes both spin precession and higher harmonics in the gravitational-wave signal, we carry out Monte Carlo simulations and determine the number of events that can be detected and accurately localized in our four population models.

Estimation of cosmological parameters from neutral hydrogen observations of the post-reionization epoch

The emission from neutral hydrogen (HI) clouds in the post-reionization era (z <= 6), too faint to be individually detected, is present as a diffuse background in all low frequency radio observations below 1420MHz. The angular and frequency fluctuations of this radiation (similar to 1 mK) are an important future probe of the large-scale structures in the Universe. We show that such observations are a very effective probe of the background cosmological model and the perturbed Universe. In our study we focus on the possibility of determining the redshift-space distortion parameter beta, coordinate distance r(nu), and its derivative with redshift r(nu)('). Using reasonable estimates for the observational uncertainties and configurations representative of the ongoing and upcoming radio interferometers, we predict parameter estimation at a precision comparable with supernova Ia observations and galaxy redshift surveys, across a wide range in redshift that is only partially accessed by other probes. Future HI observations of the post-reionization era present a new technique, complementing several existing ones, to probe the expansion history and to elucidate the nature of the dark energy.

Accurate Parameter Estimation of Contaminant Transport Inverse Problem using Particle Swarm Optimization

Swarm Intelligence techniques such as particle swarm optimization (PSO) are shown to be incompetent for an accurate estimation of global solutions in several engineering applications. This problem is more severe in case of inverse optimization problems where fitness calculations are computationally expensive. In this work, a novel strategy is introduced to alleviate this problem. The proposed inverse model based on modified particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied for a contaminant transport inverse model. The inverse models based on standard-PSO and proposed-PSO are validated to estimate the accuracy of the models. The proposed model is shown to be out performing the standard one in terms of accuracy in parameter estimation. The preliminary results obtained using the proposed model is presented in this work.

Agents Based Algorithms for Design Parameter Estimation in Contaminant Transport Inverse Problems

A considerable amount of work has been dedicated on the development of analytical solutions for flow of chemical contaminants through soils. Most of the analytical solutions for complex transport problems are closed-form series solutions. The convergence of these solutions depends on the eigen values obtained from a corresponding transcendental equation. Thus, the difficulty in obtaining exact solutions from analytical models encourages the use of numerical solutions for the parameter estimation even though, the later models are computationally expensive. In this paper a combination of two swarm intelligence based algorithms are used for accurate estimation of design transport parameters from the closed-form analytical solutions. Estimation of eigen values from a transcendental equation is treated as a multimodal discontinuous function optimization problem. The eigen values are estimated using an algorithm derived based on glowworm swarm strategy. Parameter estimation of the inverse problem is handled using standard PSO algorithm. Integration of these two algorithms enables an accurate estimation of design parameters using closed-form analytical solutions. The present solver is applied to a real world inverse problem in environmental engineering. The inverse model based on swarm intelligence techniques is validated and the accuracy in parameter estimation is shown. The proposed solver quickly estimates the design parameters with a great precision.

Seismic damage estimation through measurable dynamic characteristics

Ductility based design of reinforced concrete structures implicitly assumes certain damage under the action of a design basis earthquake. The damage undergone by a structure needs to be quantified, so as to assess the post-seismic reparability and functionality of the structure. The paper presents an analytical method of quantification and location of seismic damage, through system identification methods. It may be noted that soft ground storied buildings are the major casualties in any earthquake and hence the example structure is a soft or weak first storied one, whose seismic response and temporal variation of damage are computed using a non-linear dynamic analysis program (IDARC) and compared with a normal structure. Time period based damage identification model is used and suitably calibrated with classic damage models. Regenerated stiffness of the three degrees of freedom model (for the three storied frame) is used to locate the damage, both on-line as well as after the seismic event. Multi resolution analysis using wavelets is also used for localized damage identification for soft storey columns.

Optimizing a piezometric network in the estimation of the groundwater budget: a case study from a crystalline-rock watershed in southern India

An estimate of the groundwater budget at the catchment scale is extremely important for the sustainable management of available water resources. Water resources are generally subjected to over-exploitation for agricultural and domestic purposes in agrarian economies like India. The double water-table fluctuation method is a reliable method for calculating the water budget in semi-arid crystalline rock areas. Extensive measurements of water levels from a dense network before and after the monsoon rainfall were made in a 53 km(2)atershed in southern India and various components of the water balance were then calculated. Later, water level data underwent geostatistical analyses to determine the priority and/or redundancy of each measurement point using a cross-validation method. An optimal network evolved from these analyses. The network was then used in re-calculation of the water-balance components. It was established that such an optimized network provides far fewer measurement points without considerably changing the conclusions regarding groundwater budget. This exercise is helpful in reducing the time and expenditure involved in exhaustive piezometric surveys and also in determining the water budget for large watersheds (watersheds greater than 50 km(2)).

Semi-empirical procedures for estimation of residual velocity and ballistic limit for impact on mild steel plates by projectiles

This paper deals with the development of simplified semi-empirical relations for the prediction of residual velocities of small calibre projectiles impacting on mild steel target plates, normally or at an angle, and the ballistic limits for such plates. It has been shown, for several impact cases for which test results on perforation of mild steel plates are available, that most of the existing semi-empirical relations which are applicable only to normal projectile impact do not yield satisfactory estimations of residual velocity. Furthermore, it is difficult to quantify some of the empirical parameters present in these relations for a given problem. With an eye towards simplicity and ease of use, two new regression-based relations employing standard material parameters have been discussed here for predicting residual velocity and ballistic limit for both normal and oblique impact. The latter expressions differ in terms of usage of quasi-static or strain rate-dependent average plate material strength. Residual velocities yielded by the present semi-empirical models compare well with the experimental results. Additionally, ballistic limits from these relations show close correlation with the corresponding finite element-based predictions.

Jodimetric estimation of water-soluble dithiocarbamates

Iodimetric estimation of dialkyl dithiocarbamate in alcoholic solution is not accurate. The method has not met with success for the water-soluble dithiocarbamates before. A simple and accurate iodimetric method has been developed for the estimation of water-soluble dithiocarbamates. The success of the method is due to the removal of the oxidation product which interferes during the titration with iodine.

Robust Semi-Blind Estimation for Beamforming Based MIMO Wireless Communication

In this paper, we present robust semi-blind (SB) algorithms for the estimation of beamforming vectors for multiple-input multiple-output wireless communication. The transmitted symbol block is assumed to comprise of a known sequence of training (pilot) symbols followed by information bearing blind (unknown) data symbols. Analytical expressions are derived for the robust SB estimators of the MIMO receive and transmit beamforming vectors. These robust SB estimators employ a preliminary estimate obtained from the pilot symbol sequence and leverage the second-order statistical information from the blind data symbols. We employ the theory of Lagrangian duality to derive the robust estimate of the receive beamforming vector by maximizing an inner product, while constraining the channel estimate to lie in a confidence sphere centered at the initial pilot estimate. Two different schemes are then proposed for computing the robust estimate of the MIMO transmit beamforming vector. Simulation results presented in the end illustrate the superior performance of the robust SB estimators.

Direction of arrival estimation in the presence of distributed noise sources: Cumulant based approach

In the past few years there have been attempts to develop subspace methods for DoA (direction of arrival) estimation using a fourth?order cumulant which is known to de?emphasize Gaussian background noise. To gauge the relative performance of the cumulant MUSIC (MUltiple SIgnal Classification) (c?MUSIC) and the standard MUSIC, based on the covariance function, an extensive numerical study has been carried out, where a narrow?band signal source has been considered and Gaussian noise sources, which produce a spatially correlated background noise, have been distributed. These simulations indicate that, even though the cumulant approach is capable of de?emphasizing the Gaussian noise, both bias and variance of the DoA estimates are higher than those for MUSIC. To achieve comparable results the cumulant approach requires much larger data, three to ten times that for MUSIC, depending upon the number of sources and how close they are. This is attributed to the fact that in the estimation of the cumulant, an average of a product of four random variables is needed to make an evaluation. Therefore, compared to those in the evaluation of the covariance function, there are more cross terms which do not go to zero unless the data length is very large. It is felt that these cross terms contribute to the large bias and variance observed in c?MUSIC. However, the ability to de?emphasize Gaussian noise, white or colored, is of great significance since the standard MUSIC fails when there is colored background noise. Through simulation it is shown that c?MUSIC does yield good results, but only at the cost of more data.

Novel subspace methods for blind estimation of multiple CFOs in MIMO-OFDM systems

The problem of estimating multiple Carrier Frequency Offsets (CFOs) in the uplink of MIMO-OFDM systems with Co-Channel (CC) and OFDMA based carrier allocation is considered. The tri-linear data model for generalized, multiuser OFDM system is formulated. Novel blind subspace based estimation of multiple CFOs in the case of arbitrary carrier allocation scheme in OFDMA systems and CC users in OFDM systems based on the Khatri-Rao product is proposed. The method works where the conventional subspace method fails. The performance of the proposed methods is compared with pilot based Least-Squares method.

Application of an evolutionary fuzzy system for the estimation of workforce deployment and cross-training in an assembly environment

Owing to the increased customer demands for make-to-order products and smaller product life-cycles, today assembly lines are designed to ensure a quick switch-over from one product model to another for companies' survival in market place. The complexity associated with the decisions pertaining to the type of training and number of workers and their exposition to the different tasks especially in the current era of customized production is a serious problem that the managers and the HRD gurus are facing in industry. This paper aims to determine the amount of cross-training and dynamic deployment policy caused by workforce flexibility for a make-to-order assembly. The aforementioned issues have been dealt with by adopting the concept of evolutionary fuzzy system because of the linguistic nature of the attributes associated with product variety and task complexity. A fuzzy system-based methodology is proposed to determine the amount of cross-training and dynamic deployment policy. The proposed methodology is tested on 10 sample products of varying complexities and the results obtained are in line with the conclusions drawn by previous researchers.

A touch of history and a peep into the future of the lipid-quinone known as coenzyme Q and ubiquinone

Coenzyme Q (ubiquinone), a fully substituted benzoquinone with polyprenyl side chain, participates in many cellular redox activities. Paradoxically it was discovered only in 1957, albeit being ubiquitous. It required a person, F. L. Crane, a place, Enzyme Institute, Madison, USA, and a time when D. E. Green was directing vigorous research on mitochondria. Located at the transition of 2-electron flavoproteins and 1-electron cytochrome carriers, it facilitates electron transfer through the elegant Q-cycle in mitochondria to reduce O-2 to H2O, and to H2O2, now a significant signal-transducing agent, as a minor activity in shunt pathway (animals) and alternative oxidase (plants). The ability to form Q-radical by losing an electron and a proton was ingeniously used by Mitchell to explain the formation of the proton gradient, considered the core of energy transduction, and also in acidification in vacuoles. Known to be a mobile membrane constituent (microsomes, plasma membrane and Golgi apparatus), allowing it to reach multiple sites, coenzyme Q is expected to have other activities. Coenzyme Q protects circulating lipoproteins being a better lipid antioxidant than even vitamin E. Binding to proteins such as QPS, QPN, QPC and uncoupling protein in mitochondria, QA and QB in the reaction centre in R. sphaeroides, and disulfide bond-forming protein in E. coli (possibly also in Golgi), coenzyme Q acquires selective functions. A characteristic of orally dosed coenzyme Q is its exclusive absorption into the liver, but not the other tissues. This enrichment of Q is accompanied by significant decrease of blood pressure and of serum cholesterol. Inhibition of formation of mevalonate, the common precursor in the branched isoprene pathway, by the minor product, coenzyme Q, decreases the major product, cholesterol. Relaxation of contracted arterial smooth muscle by a side-chain truncated product of coenzyme Q explains its effect of decreasing blood pressure. Extensive clinical studies carried out on oral supplements of coenzyine Q, initially by K. Folkers and Y. Yamamura and followed many others, revealed a large number of beneficial effects, significantly in cardiovascular diseases. Such a variety of effects by this lipid quinone cannot depend on redox activity alone. The fat-soluble vitamins (A, D, E and K) that bear structural relationship with coenzyme Q are known to be active in their polar forms. A vignette of modified forms of coenzyme Q taking active role in its multiple effects is emerging.

Relative roles of instruction count and cycles per instruction in WCET estimation

Most of the existing WCET estimation methods directly estimate execution time, ET, in cycles. We propose to study ET as a product of two factors, ET = IC * CPI, where IC is instruction count and CPI is cycles per instruction. Considering directly the estimation of ET may lead to a highly pessimistic estimate since implicitly these methods may be using worst case IC and worst case CPI. We hypothesize that there exists a functional relationship between CPI and IC such that CPI=f(IC). This is ascertained by computing the covariance matrix and studying the scatter plots of CPI versus IC. IC and CPI values are obtained by running benchmarks with a large number of inputs using the cycle accurate architectural simulator, Simplescalar on two different architectures. It is shown that the benchmarks can be grouped into different classes based on the CPI versus IC relationship. For some benchmarks like FFT, FIR etc., both IC and CPI are almost a constant irrespective of the input. There are other benchmarks that exhibit a direct or an inverse relationship between CPI and IC. In such a case, one can predict CPI for a given IC as CPI=f(IC). We derive the theoretical worst case IC for a program, denoted as SWIC, using integer linear programming(ILP) and estimate WCET as SWIC*f(SWIC). However, if CPI decreases sharply with IC then measured maximum cycles is observed to be a better estimate. For certain other benchmarks, it is observed that the CPI versus IC relationship is either random or CPI remains constant with varying IC. In such cases, WCET is estimated as the product of SWIC and measured maximum CPI. It is observed that use of the proposed method results in tighter WCET estimates than Chronos, a static WCET analyzer, for most benchmarks for the two architectures considered in this paper.