A generalized geo-hazard warning system

An automated geo-hazard warning system is the need of the hour. It is integration of automation in hazard evaluation and warning communication. The primary objective of this paper is to explain a geo-hazard warning system based on Internet-resident concept and available cellular mobile infrastructure that makes use of geo-spatial data. The functionality of the system is modular in architecture having input, understanding, expert, output and warning modules. Thus, the system provides flexibility in integration between different types of hazard evaluation and communication systems leading to a generalized hazard warning system. The developed system has been validated for landslide hazard in Indian conditions. It has been realized through utilization of landslide causative factors, rainfall forecast from NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and knowledge base of landslide hazard intensity map and invokes the warning as warranted. The system evaluated hazard commensurate with expert evaluation within 5-6 % variability, and the warning message permeability has been found to be virtually instantaneous, with a maximum time lag recorded as 50 s, minimum of 10 s. So it could be concluded that a novel and stand-alone system for dynamic hazard warning has been developed and implemented. Such a handy system could be very useful in a densely populated country where people are unaware of the impending hazard.

Review of Geohazard Warning Systems toward Development of a Popular Usage Geohazard Warning Communication System

The advent and evolution of geohazard warning systems is a very interesting study. The two broad fields that are immediately visible are that of geohazard evaluation and subsequent warning dissemination. Evidently, the latter field lacks any systematic study or standards. Arbitrarily organized and vague data and information on warning techniques create confusion and indecision. The purpose of this review is to try and systematize the available bulk of information on warning systems so that meaningful insights can be derived through decidable flowcharts, and a developmental process can be undertaken. Hence, the methods and technologies for numerous geohazard warning systems have been assessed by putting them into suitable categories for better understanding of possible ways to analyze their efficacy as well as shortcomings. By establishing a classification scheme based on extent, control, time period, and advancements in technology, the geohazard warning systems available in any literature could be comprehensively analyzed and evaluated. Although major advancements have taken place in geohazard warning systems in recent times, they have been lacking a complete purpose. Some systems just assess the hazard and wait for other means to communicate, and some are designed only for communication and wait for the hazard information to be provided, which usually is after the mishap. Primarily, systems are left at the mercy of administrators and service providers and are not in real time. An integrated hazard evaluation and warning dissemination system could solve this problem. Warning systems have also suffered from complexity of nature, requirement of expert-level monitoring, extensive and dedicated infrastructural setups, and so on. The user community, which would greatly appreciate having a convenient, fast, and generalized warning methodology, is surveyed in this review. The review concludes with the future scope of research in the field of hazard warning systems and some suggestions for developing an efficient mechanism toward the development of an automated integrated geohazard warning system. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000078. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Data acquisition and processing at ocean bottom for a Tsunami warning system

The design and development of a Bottom Pressure Recorder for a Tsunami Early Warning System is described here. The special requirements that it should satisfy for the specific application of deployment at ocean bed and pressure monitoring of the water column above are dealt with. A high-resolution data digitization and low circuit power consumption are typical ones. The implementation details of the data sensing and acquisition part to meet these are also brought out. The data processing part typically encompasses a Tsunami detection algorithm that should detect an event of significance in the background of a variety of periodic and aperiodic noise signals. Such an algorithm and its simulation are presented. Further, the results of sea trials carried out on the system off the Chennai coast are presented. The high quality and fidelity of the data prove that the system design is robust despite its low cost and with suitable augmentations, is ready for a full-fledged deployment at ocean bed. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

Worker piping triggers hissing for coordinated colony defence in the dwarf honeybee Apis florea

Defending a large social insect colony containing several thousands of workers requires the simultaneous action of many individuals. Ideally this action involves communication between the workers, enabling coordinated action and a fast response. The Asian dwarf honeybee, Apis florea, is a small honeybee with an open nesting habit and a comparatively small colony size, features that leave them particularly exposed to predators. We describe here a novel defence response of these bees in which the emission of an initial warning signal from one individual (“piping”) is followed 0.3 to 0.7 seconds later by a general response from a large number of bees (“hissing”). Piping is audible to the human ear, with a fundamental frequency of 384 ± 31Hz and lasting for 0.82 ± 0.35 seconds. Hissing is a broad band, noisy signal, clearly audible to the human observer and produced by slight but visible movements of the bees' wings. Hissing begins in individuals close to the piping bee, spreads rapidly to neighbours and results in an impressive coordinated crescendo occasionally involving the entire colony. Piping and hissing are accompanied by a marked decrease, or even cessation, of worker activities such as forager dancing and departures from the colony. We show that whereas hissing of the colony can be elicited without piping, the sequential and correlated piping and hissing response is specific to the presence of potential predators close to the colony. We suggest that the combined audio-visual effect of the hissing might deter small predators, while the cessation of flight activity could decrease the risk of predation by birds and insects which prey selectively on flying bees.

Health Monitoring Of Composite Structures Based On Acoustic Wave Sensing Using Fiber Optic Sensors

Structural Health Monitoring has gained wide acceptance in the recent past as a means to monitor a structure and provide an early warning of an unsafe condition using real-time data. Utilization of structurally integrated, distributed sensors to monitor the health of a structure through accurate interpretation of sensor signals and real-time data processing can greatly reduce the inspection burden. The rapid improvement of the Fiber Optic Sensor technology for strain, vibration, ultrasonic and acoustic emission measurements in recent times makes it feasible alternative to the traditional strain gauges, PVDF and conventional Piezoelectric sensors used for Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE) and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). Optical fiber-based sensors offer advantages over conventional strain gauges, and PZT devices in terms of size, ease of embedment, immunity from electromagnetic interference (EMI) and potential for multiplexing a number of sensors. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the acoustic wave sensing using Extrinsic Fabry-Perot Interferometric (EFPI) sensor on a GFRP composite laminates. For this purpose experiments have been carried out initially for strain measurement with Fiber Optic Sensors on GFRP laminates with intentionally introduced holes of different sizes as defects. The results obtained from these experiments are presented in this paper. Numerical modeling has been carried out to obtain the relationship between the defect size and strain.

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) Using Strain Gauges, PVDF Film and Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) Sensors: A Comparative Study

The term Structural Health Monitoring has gained wide acceptance in the recent pastas a means to monitor a structure and provide an early warning of an unsafe conditionusing real-time data. Utilization of structurally integrated, distributed sensors tomonitor the health of a structure through accurate interpretation of sensor signals andreal-time data processing can greatly reduce the inspection burden. The rapidimprovement of the Fiber Bragg Grating sensor technology for strain, vibration andacoustic emission measurements in recent times make them a feasible alternatives tothe traditional strain gauges transducers and conventional Piezoelectric sensors usedfor Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE) and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM).Optical fiber-based sensors offers advantages over conventional strain gauges, PVDFfilm and PZT devices in terms of size, ease of embedment, immunity fromelectromagnetic interference(EMI) and potential for multiplexing a number ofsensors. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of Fiber BraggGrating sensor and compare its utility with the conventional strain gauges and PVDFfilm sensors. For this purpose experiments are being carried out in the laboratory on acomposite wing of a mini air vehicle (MAV). In this paper, the results obtained fromthese preliminary experiments are discussed.

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.