Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Component Inventory Costs in an Assembly Problem with Uncertain Supplier Lead-Times

We present a generic study of inventory costs in a factory stockroom that supplies component parts to an assembly line. Specifically, we are concerned with the increase in component inventories due to uncertainty in supplier lead-times, and the fact that several different components must be present before assembly can begin. It is assumed that the suppliers of the various components are independent, that the suppliers' operations are in statistical equilibrium, and that the same amount of each type of component is demanded by the assembly line each time a new assembly cycle is scheduled to begin. We use, as a measure of inventory cost, the expected time for which an order of components must be held in the stockroom from the time it is delivered until the time it is consumed by the assembly line. Our work reveals the effects of supplier lead-time variability, the number of different types of components, and their desired service levels, on the inventory cost. In addition, under the assumptions that inventory holding costs and the cost of delaying assembly are linear in time, we study optimal ordering policies and present an interesting characterization that is independent of the supplier lead-time distributions.

Learning dynamic prices in multiseller electronic retail markets with price sensitive customers, stochastic demands, and inventory replenishments

In this paper, we use reinforcement learning (RL) as a tool to study price dynamics in an electronic retail market consisting of two competing sellers, and price sensitive and lead time sensitive customers. Sellers, offering identical products, compete on price to satisfy stochastically arriving demands (customers), and follow standard inventory control and replenishment policies to manage their inventories. In such a generalized setting, RL techniques have not previously been applied. We consider two representative cases: 1) no information case, were none of the sellers has any information about customer queue levels, inventory levels, or prices at the competitors; and 2) partial information case, where every seller has information about the customer queue levels and inventory levels of the competitors. Sellers employ automated pricing agents, or pricebots, which use RL-based pricing algorithms to reset the prices at random intervals based on factors such as number of back orders, inventory levels, and replenishment lead times, with the objective of maximizing discounted cumulative profit. In the no information case, we show that a seller who uses Q-learning outperforms a seller who uses derivative following (DF). In the partial information case, we model the problem as a Markovian game and use actor-critic based RL to learn dynamic prices. We believe our approach to solving these problems is a new and promising way of setting dynamic prices in multiseller environments with stochastic demands, price sensitive customers, and inventory replenishments.

The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Performability of automated manufacturing systems with centralized material handling

We present a framework for performance evaluation of manufacturing systems subject to failure and repair. In particular, we determine the mean and variance of accumulated production over a specified time frame and show the usefulness of these results in system design and in evaluating operational policies for manufacturing systems. We extend this analysis for lead time as well. A detailed performability study is carried out for the generic model of a manufacturing system with centralized material handling. Several numerical results are presented, and the relevance of performability analysis in resolving system design issues is highlighted. Specific problems addressed include computing the distribution of total production over a shift period, determining the shift length necessary to deliver a given production target with a desired probability, and obtaining the distribution of Manufacturing Lead Time, all in the face of potential subsystem failures.

The Indian Ocean forecast system

In order to meet the ever growing demand for the prediction of oceanographic parametres in the Indian Ocean for a variety of applications, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has recently set-up an operational ocean forecast system, viz. the Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS). This fully automated system, based on a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model issues six-hourly forecasts of the sea-surface temperature, surface currents and depths of the mixed layer and the thermocline up to five-days of lead time. A brief account of INDOFOS and a statistical validation of the forecasts of these parametres using in situ and remote sensing data are presented in this article. The accuracy of the sea-surface temperature forecasts by the system is high in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, whereas it is moderate in the equatorial Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the accuracy of the depth of the thermocline and the isothermal layers and surface current forecasts are higher near the equatorial region, while it is relatively lower in the Bay of Bengal.

Influence of surge impedance of the connecting lead in response time measurement of u.h.v. damped capacitive voltage dividers

In the determination of the response time of u.h.v. damped capacitive impulse voltage dividers using the CIGRE IMR-1MS group (1) method and the arrangement suggested by the International Electrotechnical Commission (the I EC square loop),the surge impedance of the connecting lead has been found to influence the accuracy of determination. To avoid this difficulty,a new graphical procedure is proposed. As this method uses only those data points which can be determined with good accuracy, errors in response-time area evaluation do not influence the result.

Growth and study of antiferroelectric lead zirconate thin films by pulsed laser ablation

Antiferroelectric lead zirconate (PZ) thin films were deposited by pulsed laser ablation on platinum-coated silicon substrates. Films showed a polycrystalline pervoskite structure upon annealing at 650 degrees C for 5-10 min. Dielectric properties were investigated as a function of temperature and frequency. The dielectric constant of PZ films was 220 at 100 kHz with a dissipation factor of 0.03. The electric field induced transformation from the antiferroelectric phase to the ferroelectric phase was observed through the polarization change, using a Sawyer-Tower circuit. The maximum polarization value obtained was 40 mu C/cm(2). The average fields to excite the ferroelectric state, and to reverse to the antiferroelectric state were 71 and 140 kV/cm, respectively. The field induced switching was also observed through double maxima in capacitance-voltage characteristics. Leakage current was studied in terms of current versus time and current versus voltage measurements. A leakage current density of 5x10(-7) A/cm(2) at 3 V, for a film of 0.7 mu m thickness, was noted at room temperature. The trap mechanism was investigated in detail in lead zirconate thin films based upon a space charge limited conduction mechanism. The films showed a backward switching time of less than 90 ns at room temperature.

State of Charge of Lead Acid Battery

Lead acid batteries are used in hybrid vehicles and telecommunications power supply. For reliable operation of these systems, an indication of state of charge of battery is essential. To determine the state of charge of battery, current integration method combined with open circuit voltage, is being implemented. To reduce the error in the current integration method the dependence of available capacity as a function of discharge current is determined. The current integration method is modified to incorporate this factor. The experimental setup built to obtain the discharge characterstics of the battery is presented.

State of Charge of Lead Acid Battery

Lead acid batteries are used in hybrid vehicles and telecommunications power supply. For reliable operation of these systems, an indication of state of charge of battery is essential. To determine the state of charge of battery, current integration method combined with open circuit voltage, is being implemented. To reduce the error in the current integration method the dependence of available capacity as a function of discharge current is determined. The current integration method is modified to incorporate this factor. The experimental setup built to obtain the discharge characterstics of the battery is presented

Simplified Mathematical Model for Effects of Freezing on the Low-Temperature Performance of the Lead-Acid Battery

Discharge periods of lead-acid batteries are significantly reduced at subzero centigrade temperatures. The reduction is more than what can he expected due to decreased rates of various processes caused by a lowering of temperature and occurs despite the fact that active materials are available for discharge. It is proposed that the major cause for this is the freezing of the electrolyte. The concentration of acid decreases during battery discharge with a consequent increase in the freezing temperature. A battery freezes when the discharge temperature falls below the freezing temperature. A mathematical model is developed for conditions where charge-transfer reaction is the rate-limiting step. and Tafel kinetics are applicable. It is argued that freezing begins from the midplanes of electrodes and proceeds toward the reservoir in-between. Ionic conduction stops when one of the electrodes freezes fully and the time taken to reach that point, namely the discharge period, is calculated. The predictions of the model compare well to observations made at low current density (C/5) and at -20 and -40 degrees C. At higher current densities, however, diffusional resistances become important and a more complicated moving boundary problem needs to be solved to predict the discharge periods. (C) 2009 The Electrochemical Society.

Rendering stiffer walls: a hybrid haptic system using continuous and discrete time feedback

Instability in conventional haptic rendering destroys the perception of rigid objects in virtual environments. Inherent limitations in the conventional haptic loop restrict the maximum stiffness that can be rendered. In this paper we present a method to render virtual walls that are much stiffer than those achieved by conventional techniques. By removing the conventional digital haptic loop and replacing it with a part-continuous and part-discrete time hybrid haptic loop, we were able to render stiffer walls. The control loop is implemented as a combinational logic circuit on an field-programmable gate array. We compared the performance of the conventional haptic loop and our hybrid haptic loop on the same haptic device, and present mathematical analysis to show the limit of stability of our device. Our hybrid method removes the computer-intensive haptic loop from the CPU-this can free a significant amount of resources that can be used for other purposes such as graphical rendering and physics modeling. It is our hope that, in the future, similar designs will lead to a haptics processing unit (HPU).

Low Power continuous time common mode sensing for common mode feedback circuits

Continuous common mode feedback (CMFB) circuits having high input impedance and low distortion are proposed. The proposed circuits are characterized for 0.18 mu m CMOS process with 1.8 V supply. Simulation results indicate that the proposed common mode detector consumes no standby power and CMFB circuit consumes 27-34% less power than previous high swing CMFB circuits.

State of Charge of Lead Acid Battery

Lead acid batteries are used in hybrid vehicles and telecommunications power supply. For reliable operation of these systems, an indication of state of charge of battery is essential. To determine the state of charge of battery, current integration method combined with open circuit voltage, is being implemented. To reduce the error in the current integration method the dependence of available capacity as a function of discharge current is determined. The current integration method is modified to incorporate this factor. The experimental setup built to obtain the discharge characterstics of the battery is presented.

Polycrystalline Lead Tin Chalcogenide Thin Film Grown by Spray Pyrolysis

PbSnS2 thin film has been prepared for the first time by spray pyrolysis technique on FTO substrate at 570K. The preliminary optical and structural characteristics of the film have been reported. The optical studies showed that the value of the fundamental absorption edge lies at 1.47eV and a low energy absorption band tail has been observed. The prepared film is p- type electrical conductivity, polycrystalline in nature and has an orthorhombic crystal structure. The value of an average grain size of the film is 350Å.