Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

All flavours of El Nino have similar early subsurface origins

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, characterized by anomalous sea surface temperatures and winds in the tropical Pacific, affects climate across the globe(1). El Ninos occur every 2-7 years, whereas the El Nino/Southern Oscillation itself varies on decadal timescales in frequency and amplitude, with a different spatial pattern of surface anomalies(2) each time the tropical Pacific undergoes a regime shift. Recent work has shown that Bjerknes feedback(3,4) (coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean through changes in equatorial winds driven by changes in sea surface temperature owing to suppression of equatorial upwelling in the east Pacific) is not necessary(5) for the development of an El Nino. Thus it is unclear what remains constant through regimes and is crucial for producing the anomalies recognized as El Nino. Here we show that the subsurface process of discharging warm waters always begins in the boreal summer/autumn of the year before the event (up to 18 months before the peak) independent of regimes, identifying the discharge process as fundamental to the El Nino onset. It is therefore imperative that models capture this process accurately to further our theoretical understanding, improve forecasts and predict how the El Nino/Southern Oscillation may respond to climate change.

Phase-shift randomness in one-dimensional disordered conductors in the quasi-metallic domain

An invariant imbedding method yields exact analytical results for the distribution of the phase theta (L) of the reflection amplitude and for low-order resistance moments (pn) for a disordered conductor of length L in the quasi-metallic regime L<

Determination of chemical shift anisotropy without a reference and of direct and indirect spin-spin couplings between heteronuclei

A method employing two liquid crystals of opposite diamagnetic anisotropies to determine chemical shift anisotropy without using any reference compound is described. It also provides individual values of the direct and the indirect spin-spin coupling constants between heteronuclei. The parameters for acetonitrile are reported.

The rα structure, chemical shift anisotropy, and the abnormal orientation of methyldichlorophosphine from the NMR spectrum

NMR studies of methyldichlorophosphine have been undertaken in the nematic phase of mixed liquid crystals of opposite diamagnetic anisotropies. The rα structure is derived. The proton chemical-shift anisotropy has been determined from the studies without the use of a reference compound and without a change of experimental conditions. It is shown that the molecule orients in the liquid crystal with positive diamagnetic anisotropy in such a way that the C3 symmetry axis of the CH3P moiety is preferentially aligned perpendicular to the direction of the magnetic field, unlike other similar systems. This is interpreted in terms of the formation of a weak solvent-solute molecular complex. The heteronuclear indirect spin-spin coupling constants are determined. The sign of the two-bond JPH is found to be positive.

Nondeactivating Nanosized Ionic Catalysts for Water-Gas Shift Reaction

The water-gas shift reaction (WGS) is an important reaction to produce hydrogen. In this study, we have synthesized nanosized catalysts where Pt ion is substituted in the +2 state in TiO2, CeO2, and Ce1-xTixO2-delta. These catalysts have been characterized by X-ray diffraction and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and it has been shown that Pt2+ in these reducible oxides result in solid solutions like Ti0.99Pt0.01O2-delta, Ce0.8Ti0.15Pt0.02O2-delta, and Ce0.98Pt0.02O2-delta. These catalysts were tested for the water gas shift reaction both ill the presence and absence of hydrogen. It was shown that Ti0.99Pt0.01O2-delta exhibited higher catalytic activity than Ce0.83Ti0.15Pt0.02O2-delta and Ce0.98Pt0.02O2-delta. Further, experiments were conducted to determine the deactivation of these catalysts. There was no sintering of Pt and no carbonate formation; therefore, the catalyst did not deactivate even after prolonged reaction. There was no carbonate formation because of the highly acidic nature of Ti4+ ions in the catalysts.

Metal-insulator transition of naxwo3 studied by angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy

The electronic structure of sodium tungsten bronzes NaxWO3 is investigated by high-resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES). The ARPES spectra measured in both insulating and metallic phases of NaxWO3 reveals the origin of metal-insulator transition (MIT) in sodium tungsten bronze system. It is found that in insulating NaxWO3 the states near the Fermi level (E-F) are localized due to the strong disorder caused by the random distribution of Na+ ions in WO3 lattice. Due to the presence of disorder and long-range Coulomb interaction of conduction electrons, a soft Coulomb gap arises, where the density of states vanishes exactly at E-F. In the metallic regime the states near E-F are populated and the Fermi level shifts upward rigidly with increasing electron doping (x). Volume of electron-like Fermi surface (FS) at the Gamma(X) point of the Brillouin zone gradually increases with increasing Na concentration due to W 5d t(2g) band filling. A rigid shift of the Fermi energy is found to give a qualitatively good description of the Fermi surface evolution. As we move from bulk-sensitive to more surface sensitive photon energy, we found the emergence of Fermi surfaces at X(M) and M(R) point similar to the one at the Gamma(X) point in the metallic regime, suggesting that the reconstruction of surface was due to rotation/deformation of WO6 octahedra.

H N.M.R. studies of protected alpha-aminoisobutyric acid containing peptides. Chemical shift nonequivalence of benzyloxycarbonyl methylene protons

The benzylic methylene protons in a large number of benzyloxycarbonyl alpha-aminoisobutyric acid (Z-Aib) containing peptides, show chemical shift nonequivalence. The magnitude of the geminal nonequivalence is correlated with the involvement of the urethane carbonyl group, in an intramolecular hydrogen bond. Studies of the model compounds Z-Aib-Aib-Ala-NHMe, and Z-Aib-Aib-Aib-Pro-OMe clearly establish the presence of intramolecular hydrogen bonds, involving the urethane CO group. In both compounds marked anisochrony of the benzylic methylene protons is demonstrated. In Z-Aib-Aib-Pro-OMe, where a 4 leads to 1 hydrogen bonded beta-turn is not possible, the benzylic-CH2-protons appear as a singlet in CDCl3 and have a very small chemical shift difference in (CD3)2SO. The observation of such nonequivalence is of value in establishing whether the amino terminal Aib-Pro beta-turn is retained in large peptide-fragments of alamethicin.

Shift of peak in summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and its association with El Nino-Southern Oscillation

The annual cycle of rainfall over the Korean Peninsula is marked by two peaks: one during July and the other during August. Since the mid-1970s, the maximum rainfall over the Korean Peninsula has shifted from July to August. This shift in rainfall peak was caused by a significant increase of August rainfall after the mid-1970s. The basic reason for this shift has been traced to a change in teleconnection between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and August rainfall. The relationship between August rainfall over Korea and ENSO changed from 1954-1975 (PI) to 1976-2002 (PII). The variability of August rainfall was significantly associated with sea surface temperature (SST) variation over the eastern equatorial Pacific during PI, but this relationship is absent during the PII period. In El Nino years during PI, low-level westerly and southerly wind anomalies are dominant around the East China Sea, which relates to strong August rainfall. In La Nina years during PI, easterly and northerly wind anomalies are dominant. During the PII period, however, westerly and southerly wind anomalies around the East China Sea were responsible for the high August rainfall over the East Asian region, even though La Nina SST conditions were in effect over the eastern Pacific.

Processing Response of Boron Modified Ti-6Al-4V Alloy In (alpha plus beta) Working Regime

Titanium alloys like Ti-6A-4V are the backbone materials for aerospace, energy and chemical industries. Hypoeutectic boron addition to Ti-6Al-4V alloy produces a reduction in as-cast grain size by roughly an order of magnitude resulting in the possibility of avoiding ingot breakdown step and thereby reducing the processing cost. In the present study, ISM processed as-cast boron added Ti-6Al-4V alloy is deformed in (alpha+beta)-phase field, where alpha-lath bending seemed to be the dominating deformation mechanism.

Subquadratic wavenumber dependence of the structural relaxation of supercooled liquid in the crossover regime

As a liquid is progressively supercooled toward its glass transition temperature, an intriguing weakening of the wavenumber (q) dependence of the structural relaxation time tau(q) in the intermediate-to-large q limit is observed both in experiments and simulation studies. Neither continuous Brownian diffusive dynamics nor discontinuous activated events can alone explain the anomalous wavenumber dependence. Here we use our recently developed theory that unifies the mode coupling theory for continuous dynamics, with the random first order transition theory treatment of activated discontinuous motion as a nucleationlike instanton process to understand the wavenumber dependence of density relaxation. The predicted smooth change in mechanism of relaxation from diffusive to activated, in the crossover regime, is wavevector dependent and appears to be responsible for the observed subquadratic,nalmost linear, q dependence of the relaxation time.

Backbone chemical shift assignments of the acyl-acyl carrier protein intermediates of the fatty acid biosynthesis pathway of Plasmodium falciparum

We report the backbone chemical shift assignments of the acyl-acyl carrier protein (ACP) intermediates of the fatty acid biosynthesis pathway of Plasmodium falciparum. The acyl-ACP intermediates butyryl (C4), -octanoyl (C8), -decanoyl (C10), -dodecanoyl (C12) and -tetradecanoyl (C14)-ACPs display marked changes in backbone HN, Cα and Cβ chemical shifts as a result of acyl chain insertion into the hydrophobic core. Chemical shift changes cast light on the mechanism of expansion of the acyl carrier protein core.