Role of predictors in downscaling surface temperature to river basin in India for IPCC SRES scenarios using support vector machine

In this paper, downscaling models are developed using a support vector machine (SVM) for obtaining projections of monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures (T-max and T-min) to river-basin scale. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated through application to downscale the predictands for the catchment of the Malaprabha reservoir in India, which is considered to be a climatically sensitive region. The probable predictor variables are extracted from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1978-2000, and (2) the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT for the period 1978-2100. The predictor variables are classified into three groups, namely A, B and C. Large-scale atmospheric variables Such as air temperature, zonal and meridional wind velocities at 925 nib which are often used for downscaling temperature are considered as predictors in Group A. Surface flux variables such as latent heat (LH), sensible heat, shortwave radiation and longwave radiation fluxes, which control temperature of the Earth's surface are tried as plausible predictors in Group B. Group C comprises of all the predictor variables in both the Groups A and B. The scatter plots and cross-correlations are used for verifying the reliability of the simulation of the predictor variables by the CGCM3 and to Study the predictor-predictand relationships. The impact of trend in predictor variables on downscaled temperature was studied. The predictor, air temperature at 925 mb showed an increasing trend, while the rest of the predictors showed no trend. The performance of the SVM models that are developed, one for each combination of predictor group, predictand, calibration period and location-based stratification (land, land and ocean) of climate variables, was evaluated. In general, the models which use predictor variables pertaining to land surface improved the performance of SVM models for downscaling T-max and T-min

Conductivity Scale In Disordered-Systems

A reanalysis of the correction to the Boltzmann conductivity due to maximally crossed graphs for degenerate bands explains why the conductivity scale in many-valley semiconductors is an order of magnitude higher than Mott's "minimum metallic conductivity." With the use of a reasonable assumption for the Boltzmann mean free path, the lowest-order perturbation theory is seen to give a remarkably good, semiquantitative, description of the conductivity variation in both uncompensated doped semiconductors and amorphous alloys.

Quasi-periodic, global oscillations in sea level pressure on intraseasonal timescales

The sea level pressure (SLP) variability in 30-60 day intraseasonal timescales is investigated using 25 years of reanalysis data addressing two issues. The first concerns the non-zero zonal mean component of SLP near the equator and its meridional connections, and the second concerns the fast eastward propagation (EP) speed of SLP compared to that of zonal wind. It is shown that the entire globe resonates with high amplitude wave activity during some periods which may last for few to several months, followed by lull periods of varying duration. SLP variations in the tropical belt are highly coherent from 25A degrees S to 25A degrees N, uncorrelated with variations in mid latitudes and again significantly correlated but with opposite phase around 60A degrees S and 65A degrees N. Near the equator (8A degrees S-8A degrees N), the zonal mean contributes significantly to the total variance in SLP, and after its removal, SLP shows a dominant zonal wavenumber one structure having a periodicity of 40 days and EP speeds comparable to that of zonal winds in the Indian Ocean. SLP from many of the atmospheric and coupled general circulation models show similar behaviour in the meridional direction although their propagation characteristics in the tropical belt differ widely.

Coupled ocean-atmosphere inter-decadal modes in the tropics

Homogencous upper air data for 50 years (1949-1998) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis project, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressure are used to bring out the three dimensional structure of two dominant decadal/multi-decadal variations in the tropics. The global three dimensional modes represent generalized forms of inter-decadal modes studied earlier only with surface data. In the vertical, both modes show approximate first baroclinic structures over the tropics. The Walker circulation associated with the multidecadal mode has a wavenumber two structure in the zonal direction. It is shown that the magnitude of major ascending and descending motions associated with the multi-decadal Hadley and Walker circulations, are comparable to those associated with the dominant inter-annual mode. Implications of these large scale global circulations associated with the low frequency oscillations in modulating regional climate on a inter-annual time scale are discussed.

A possible model for fifth force

Recent reanalysis of the data of the Eötvös experiment suggested the existence of a new force. We show that a negative energy massive scalar field minimally coupled to gravity in a background Schwarzschild metric naturally leads to a potential which can explain the small anomalous effect in the Eötvös experiment.

Taxonomic Implications of a Field Study of Morphotypes of Hanuman Langurs (Semnopithecus entellus) in Peninsular India

The Hanuman langur is one of the most widely distributed and morphologically variable non-human primates in South Asia. Even though it has been extensively studied, the taxonomic status of this species remains unresolved due to incongruence between various classification schemes. This incongruence, we believe, is largely due to the use of plastic morphological characters such as coat color in classification. Additionally these classification schemes were largely based on reanalysis of the same set of museum specimens. To bring greater resolution in Hanuman langur taxonomy we undertook a field survey to study variation in external morphological characters among Hanuman langurs. The primary objective of this study is to ascertain the number of morphologically recognizable units (morphotypes) of Hanuman langur in peninsular India and to compare our field observations with published classification schemes. We typed five color-independent characters for multiple adults from various populations in South India. We used the presence-absence matrix of these characters to derive the pair-wise distance between individuals and used this to construct a neighbor-joining (NJ) tree. The resulting NJ tree retrieved six distinct clusters, which we assigned to different morphotypes. These morphotypes can be identified in the field by using a combination of five diagnostic characters. We determined the approximate distributions of these morphotypes by plotting the sampling locations of each morphotype on a map using GIS software. Our field observations are largely concordant with some of the earliest classification schemes, but are incongruent with recent classification schemes. Based on these results we recommend Hill (Ceylon Journal of Science, Colombo 21:277-305, 1939) and Pocock (Primates and carnivora (in part) (pp. 97-163). London: Taylor and Francis, 1939) classification schemes for future studies on Hanuman langurs.

Correction for Bias in Downscaling GCM Simulations for Hydrologic Impact Assessment

In a statistical downscaling model, it is important to remove the bias of General Circulations Model (GCM) outputs resulting from various assumptions about the geophysical processes. One conventional method for correcting such bias is standardisation, which is used prior to statistical downscaling to reduce systematic bias in the mean and variances of GCM predictors relative to the observations or National Centre for Environmental Prediction/ National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. A major drawback of standardisation is that it may reduce the bias in the mean and variance of the predictor variable but it is much harder to accommodate the bias in large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation in GCMs (e.g. shifts in the dominant storm track relative to observed data) or unrealistic inter-variable relationships. While predicting hydrologic scenarios, such uncorrected bias should be taken care of; otherwise it will propagate in the computations for subsequent years. A statistical method based on equi-probability transformation is applied in this study after downscaling, to remove the bias from the predicted hydrologic variable relative to the observed hydrologic variable for a baseline period. The model is applied in prediction of monsoon stream flow of Mahanadi River in India, from GCM generated large scale climatological data.

Gibbs energy of formation of lead zirconate

The Gibbs energy of formation of zirconia-saturated lead zirconate was determined by emf measurements on the solid state cells and at 800 to 1400 K. The results obtained differ significantly from those reported in the literature based on vapor-pressure measurements, using Knudsen effusion and transportation techniques and assuming that the vapor phase consisted entirely of monomeric PbO molecules. A reanalysis of the data obtained in the earlier vapor-pressure studies, using mass-spectrometric measurements on polymeric PbO species in the gas phase, gives Gibbs energies of formation of lead zirconate which are in better agreement with those obtained in this study. Recent electrochemical measurements using CaO-ZrO2 and PbF2 solid electrolytes are in good agreement with the present study. The results obtained in this study are also consistent with the phase diagram which shows decomposition of the zirconate to tetragonal zirconia and a liquid phase rich in PbO at 1843 K.

Gibbs energy formation of lead titanate

The Gibbs energy of formation of titania-saturated lead titanate has been determined by e.m.f. measurements on the solid state cell;Pt,Ir,Pb + Pb1−xTiO3−x + TiO2(rutile)/CaO-ZrO2/Ni + NiO,Pt in the temperature range 1075–1350 K. The results obtained are significantly different from those reported in the literature based upon vapour pressure measurements, employing Knudsen effusion and transportation techniques, and assuming that the vapor phase consisted entirely of monomeric PbO molecules. A reanalysis of the data obtained in the earlier vapor pressure studies using mass spectrometric measurements on polymeric PbO species in the gas phase, gives Gibbs energies of formation of lead titanate which are in better agreement with those obtained in this study. Earlier electrochemical measurements by Mehrotra et al. and more recent electrochemical measurements by Schmahl et al. both employing CaO-ZrO2 solid electrolytes are in good agreement with the present study. The electro-chemical measurements by Schmahl et al. using PbF 2 solid electrolyte give a slightly more positive Gibbs energy of formation. There was no evidence supporting the formation of compounds other than Pb1−xTiO3−x from yellow PbO and rutile form of TiO2 in the temperature range covered in this study.Résumé L'enthalpie libre de formation du titanate de plomb saturé en oxyde de titane a été déterminée par des mesures de FEM de la pile: Pt,Ir,Pb + Pb1−xTiO3−x + TiO2(rutile)/CaO-ZrO2/Ni + NiO,Pt dans le domaine de températures 1075–1350 K. Les résultats obtenus, different appréciablement de ceux publiés, déterminés par mesures de tensions de vapeur (techniques de transport et d'effusion de Knudsen) en supposant que la phase gazeuse etait uniquement constituée de molécules monomériques de PbO. Une réanalyse des résultats de la littérature, à partir de mesures par spectrométrie de masse sur les polymères de PbO gazeux, donne des enthalpies libres de formation du titanate de plomb se rapprochant de celles obtenues dans cette étude. Les mesures de Mehrotra et al. et plus récemment de Schmahl et al. utilisant toutes deux l'électrolyte CaO-ZrO2 concordent bien avec celles de la présente étude. Les mesures de Schmahl et al., à l'aide de l' électrolyte solide PbF2, donnent une enthalpie de formation légèrement plus positive. Pour la gammede températures étudiée, rien ne permet de supposer que des composés autres que Pb1−x TiO3−x puissent se former à partir du PbO Gaune) et du rutile (TiO2).

Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R (H) in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R (H) is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R (H) are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R (H) is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

Longitudinal localization of tropical intraseasonal variability

Intraseasonal time-scales play an important role in tropical variability. Two modes that contribute significantly to tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) are the eastward-propagating MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO), and westward-moving moist equatorial Rossby waves. This note reports on a correspondence between the longitudinal gradient of mean tropical precipitable water (PW), and the geographical regions of genesis, and convective activity, of both these large-scale tropical systems. Our finding is based on an analysis of PW from the MERRA reanalysis product. The data indicate that the mean tropical PW has a dominant wavenumber two (three) structure in longitude in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Departures from a longitudinally homogeneous state are attributed to the influence of subtropical anticyclones, and are accentuated by monsoonal regions of both hemispheres. This mean structure results in a sharply localized longitudinal gradient of PW. Remarkably, regions with positive gradients (such as the Northern and Southern Hemisphere western Indian Ocean), i.e. they have larger PW to the east, are the very zones that are implicated in the formation, and show high levels of convective activity, of the eastward-moving MJO. On the other hand, regions with negative gradients (such as the Southern Hemisphere central Pacific) are the very regions where genesis, and maxima in variance, of westward-moving moist equatorial Rossby waves are known to occur. Apart from providing a first-order longitudinal footprint of the convective phase of these systems, this correspondence reinforces the role of the mean climatic state in tropical ISV. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Assessing future rainfall projections using multiple GCMs and a multi-site stochastic downscaling model

Impact of global warming on daily rainfall is examined using atmospheric variables from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and a stochastic downscaling model. Daily rainfall at eleven raingauges over Malaprabha catchment of India and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data at grid points over the catchment for a continuous time period 1971-2000 (current climate) are used to calibrate the downscaling model. The downscaled rainfall simulations obtained using GCM atmospheric variables corresponding to the IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 emission scenario for the same period are used to validate the results. Following this, future downscaled rainfall projections are constructed and examined for two 20 year time slices viz. 2055 (i.e. 2046-2065) and 2090 (i.e. 2081-2100). The model results show reasonable skill in simulating the rainfall over the study region for the current climate. The downscaled rainfall projections indicate no significant changes in the rainfall regime in this catchment in the future. More specifically, 2% decrease by 2055 and 5% decrease by 2090 in monsoon (HAS) rainfall compared to the current climate (1971-2000) under global warming conditions are noticed. Also, pre-monsoon (JFMAM) and post-monsoon (OND) rainfall is projected to increase respectively, by 2% in 2055 and 6% in 2090 and, 2% in 2055 and 12% in 2090, over the region. On annual basis slight decreases of 1% and 2% are noted for 2055 and 2090, respectively.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

The upper Bay of Bengal salinity structure in a high-resolution model

Salinity in the Bay of Bengal is highly heterogeneous, with extremely fresh waters found at the surface in the Northern part of the basin, and saltier waters at subsurface as well as to the south. This paper investigates the seasonal structure of sea surface salinity of the Bay in a regional high-resolution model forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis and various precipitation products. Surface circulation is believed to drive the spreading of northern Bay of Bengal fresh waters to the rest of the Indian Ocean. We first present a series of experiments to infer the sensitivity of modeled circulation to various numerical choices. Surface circulation is found to be sensitive to the horizontal resolution of the model, with the 1/12 degrees version appearing much more realistic than the 1/4 degrees version. The sidewall boundary condition is also drastically influencing the characteristics of the western boundary current simulated. We then investigate the sensitivity of the salinity response to the various precipitation products. We observe that ERA-Interim excess precipitation induces a fresh bias in the surface salinity response. Spaceborne precipitation products are more satisfactory. We then identify the pathways of the northern Bay freshwater mass, based on passive tracers experiments. Our model suggests that over timescales of a few months, vertical exchanges between the upper fresh layer and the underlying saltier layer appear to be the main export pathway for the freshwater. The horizontal circulation within the mixed layer also acts to convey fresh waters out of the Bay at these timescales, but in a lesser quantity compared to the vertical export. Beyond its intrinsic interest for the understanding of Bay of Bengal physics, this study highlights the need for a careful design of any realistic numerical model, in three key aspects: the choice of the resolution of the model, the choice of the sub-grid scale parameterizations, and the choice of the forcing fluxes. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.