Modelling electricity demand with representative load curves

Models for electricity planning require inclusion of demand. Depending on the type of planning, the demand is usually represented as an annual demand for electricity (GWh), a peak demand (MW) or in the form of annual load-duration curves. The demand for electricity varies with the seasons, economic activities, etc. Existing schemes do not capture the dynamics of demand variations that are important for planning. For this purpose, we introduce the concept of representative load curves (RLCs). Advantages of RLCs are demonstrated in a case study for the state of Karnataka in India. Multiple discriminant analysis is used to cluster the 365 daily load curves for 1993-94 into nine RLCs. Further analyses of these RLCs help to identify important factors, namely, seasonal, industrial, agricultural, and residential (water heating and air-cooling) demand variations besides rationing by the utility. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reorientation of Water Inside Carbon Nanorings by Large Angular Jumps

Molecular dynamics simulations of the orientational dynamics of water molecules confined inside narrow carbon nanorings reveal that reorientational relaxation is mediated by large amplitude angular jumps. The distribution of waiting time between jumps peaks at about 60 fs, and has a slowly decaying exponential tail with a timescale of about 440 fs. These time scales are much faster than the mean waiting time between jumps of the water molecules in bulk.

Landau-Zener problem with waiting at the minimum gap and related quench dynamics of a many-body system

We discuss a technique for solving the Landau-Zener (LZ) problem of finding the probability of excitation in a two-level system. The idea of time reversal for the Schrodinger equation is employed to obtain the state reached at the final time and hence the excitation probability. Using this method, which can reproduce the well-known expression for the LZ transition probability, we solve a variant of the LZ problem, which involves waiting at the minimum gap for a time t(w); we find an exact expression for the excitation probability as a function of t(w). We provide numerical results to support our analytical expressions. We then discuss the problem of waiting at the quantum critical point of a many-body system and calculate the residual energy generated by the time-dependent Hamiltonian. Finally, we discuss possible experimental realizations of this work.

Waiting for Gajah: an elephant mutualist's contingency plan for an endangered megafaunal disperser

Large animals are disproportionately likely to go extinct, and the effects of this on ecosystem processes are unclear. Megaherbivores (weighing over 1000kg) are thought to be particularly effective seed dispersers, yet only a few plant species solely or predominantly adapted for dispersal by megaherbivores have been identified. The reasons for this paradox may be elucidated by examining the ecology of so-called megafaunal fruiting species in Asia, where large-fruited species have been only sparsely researched. We conducted focal tree watches, camera trapping, fruit ageing trials, dung seed counts and germination trials to understand the ecology of Dillenia indica, a large-fruited species thought to be elephant-dispersed, in a tropical moist forest (Buxa Tiger Reserve, India). We find that the initial hardness of the fruit of D.indica ensures that its small (6mm) seeds will primarily be consumed and dispersed by elephants and perhaps other megaherbivores. Elephants removed 63.3% of camera trap-monitored fruits taken by frugivores. If the fruit of D.indica is not removed by a large animal, the seeds of D.indica become available to successively smaller frugivores as its fruits soften. Seeds from both hard and soft fruits are able to germinate, meaning these smaller frugivores may provide a mechanism for dispersal without megaherbivores.Synthesis. Dillenia indica's strategy for dispersal allows it to realize the benefits of dispersal by megaherbivores without becoming fully reliant on these less abundant species. This risk-spreading dispersal behaviour suggests D.indica will be able to persist even if its megafaunal disperser becomes extinct.

Studies of grand minima in sunspot cycles by using a flux transport solar dynamo model

We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultaneous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results: (a) fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; (b) both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; (c) distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; (d) the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an alpha-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this alpha-effect is suitably fine-tuned.

Prediction of Queue Waiting Times for Metascheduling on Parallel Batch Systems

Prediction of queue waiting times of jobs submitted to production parallel batch systems is important to provide overall estimates to users and can also help meta-schedulers make scheduling decisions. In this work, we have developed a framework for predicting ranges of queue waiting times for jobs by employing multi-class classification of similar jobs in history. Our hierarchical prediction strategy first predicts the point wait time of a job using dynamic k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) method. It then performs a multi-class classification using Support Vector Machines (SVMs) among all the classes of the jobs. The probabilities given by the SVM for the class predicted using k-NN and its neighboring classes are used to provide a set of ranges of predicted wait times with probabilities. We have used these predictions and probabilities in a meta-scheduling strategy that distributes jobs to different queues/sites in a multi-queue/grid environment for minimizing wait times of the jobs. Experiments with different production supercomputer job traces show that our prediction strategies can give correct predictions for about 77-87% of the jobs, and also result in about 12% improved accuracy when compared to the next best existing method. Experiments with our meta-scheduling strategy using different production and synthetic job traces for various system sizes, partitioning schemes and different workloads, show that the meta-scheduling strategy gives much improved performance when compared to existing scheduling policies by reducing the overall average queue waiting times of the jobs by about 47%.