Diurnal-scale signatures of monsoon rainfall over the Indian region from TRMM satellite observations

One of the most important modes of summer season precipitation variability over the Indian region, the diurnal cycle, is studied using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3-hourly, 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999-2007). Most previous studies have provided an analysis of a single year or a few years of satellite-or station-based rainfall data. Our study aims to systematically analyze the statistical characteristics of the diurnal-scale signature of rainfall over the Indian and surrounding regions. Using harmonic analysis, we extract the signal corresponding to diurnal and subdiurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time period or the octet of rainfall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the ``peak octet,'' is estimated, with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430, and 1730 Indian standard time (IST), from the north central to south bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian Sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet owing to the occurrence of a ual maxima (early morng and early/late afternoon). The imalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430-1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e. g., Himalayas) is significantly different from coastal orography (e. g., Western Ghats). We also find that over the Gangetic plains, the peak octet is around 1430 IST, a few hours earlier compared to the typical early evening maxima over land.

Variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in daily data from gauge and satellite

It has long been thought that tropical rainfall retrievals from satellites have large errors. Here we show, using a new daily 1 degree gridded rainfall data set based on about 1800 gauges from the India Meteorology Department (IMD), that modern satellite estimates are reasonably close to observed rainfall over the Indian monsoon region. Daily satellite rainfalls from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP 1DD) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) are available since 1998. The high summer monsoon (June-September) rain over the Western Ghats and Himalayan foothills is captured in TMPA data. Away from hilly regions, the seasonal mean and intraseasonal variability of rainfall (averaged over regions of a few hundred kilometers linear dimension) from both satellite products are about 15% of observations. Satellite data generally underestimate both the mean and variability of rain, but the phase of intraseasonal variations is accurate. On synoptic timescales, TMPA gives reasonable depiction of the pattern and intensity of torrential rain from individual monsoon low-pressure systems and depressions. A pronounced biennial oscillation of seasonal total central India rain is seen in all three data sets, with GPCP 1DD being closest to IMD observations. The new satellite data are a promising resource for the study of tropical rainfall variability.

Geochemistry of water and ground water in the Nhecolandia, Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil: Variability and associated processes

A distinctive feature of the Nhecolandia, a sub-region of the Pantanal wetland in Brazil, is the presence of both saline and freshwater lakes. Saline lakes used to be attributed to a past and phase during the Pleistocene. However, recent studies have shown that saline and fresh water lakes are linked by a continuous water table, indicating that saline water could come from a contemporary concentration process. This concentration process could also be responsible for the large chemical variability of the waters observed in the area. A regional water sampling has been conducted in surface and sub-surface water and the water table, and the results of the geochemical and statistical analysis are presented. Based on sodium contents, the concentration shows a 1: 4443 ratio. All the samples belong to the same chemical family and evolve in a sodic alkaline manner. Calcite or magnesian calcite precipitates very early in the process of concentration, probably followed by the precipitation of magnesian silicates. The most concentrated solutions remain under-saturated with respect to the sodium carbonate salt, even if this equilibrium is likely reached around the saline lakes. Apparently, significant amounts of sulfate and chloride are lost simultaneously from the solutions, and this cannot be explained solely by evaporative concentration. This could be attributed to the sorption on reduced minerals in a green sub-surface horizon in the "cordilhieira" areas. In the saline lakes, low potassium, phosphate, magnesium, and sulfate are attributed to algal blooms. Under the influence of evaporation, the concentration of solutions and associated chemical precipitations are identified as the main factors responsible for the geochemical variability in this environment (about 92 % of the variance). Therefore, the saline lakes of Nhecolandia have to be managed as landscape units in equilibrium with the present water flows and not inherited from a past and phase. In order to elaborate hydrochemical tracers for a quantitative estimation of water flows, three points have to be investigated more precisely: (1) the quantification of magnesium involved in the Mg-calcite precipitation; (2) the identification of the precise stoichiometry of the Mg-silicate; and (3) the verification of the loss of chloride and sulfate by sorption onto labile iron minerals.

Support Vector Machine Approach to Downscale Precipitation in Climate Change Scenarios

Concern over changes in global climate has increased in recent years with improvement in understanding of atmospheric dynamics and growth in evidence of climate link to long‐term variability in hydrologic records. Climate impact studies rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. Towards this, the past decade has witnessed significant progress in development of downscaling models to cascade the climate information provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) at coarse spatial resolution to the scale relevant for hydrologic studies. While a plethora of downscaling models have been applied successfully to mid‐latitude regions, a few studies are available on tropical regions where the atmosphere is known to have more complex behavior. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling to interpret climate change signals provided by GCMs over tropical regions of India. Climate variables affecting spatio‐temporal variation of precipitation at each meteorological sub‐division of India are identified. Following this, cluster analysis is applied on climate data to identify the wet and dry seasons in each year. The data pertaining to climate variables and precipitation of each meteorological sub‐division is then used to develop SVM based downscaling model for each season. Subsequently, the SVM based downscaling model is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological inputs to the meteorological sub‐divisions. The results obtained from the SVM downscaling model are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India.

Si isotope variability in Proterozoic cherts

We report Si-isotopic compositions of 75 sedimentologically and petrographically characterized chert samples with ages ranging from similar to 2600 to 750 Ma using multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. delta Si-30 values of the cherts analyzed in this study show a similar to 7 parts per thousand range, from -4.29 to +2.85. This variability can be explained in part by (1) simple mixing of silica derived from continental (higher delta Si-30) and hydrothermal (lower delta Si-30) sources, (2) multiple mechanisms of silica precipitation and (3) Rayleigh-type fractionations within pore waters of individual basins. We observe similar to 3 parts per thousand variation in peritidal cherts from a single Neoproterozoic sedimentary basin (Spitsbergen). This variation can be explained by Rayleigh-type fractionation during precipitation from silica-saturated porewaters. In some samples, post-dissolution and reprecipitation of silica could have added to this effect. Our data also indicate that peritidal cherts are enriched in the heavier isotopes of Si whereas basinal cherts associated with banded iron formations (BIF) show lower delta Si-30. This difference could partly be due to Si being derived from hydrothermal sources in BIFs. We postulate that the difference in delta Si-30 between non-BIF and BIF cherts is consistent with the contrasting genesis of these deposits. Low delta Si-30 in BIF is consistent with laboratory experiments showing that silica adsorbed onto Fe-hydroxide particles preferentially incorporates lighter Si isotopes. Despite large intrabasinal variation and environmental differences, the data show a clear pattern of secular variation. Low delta Si-30 in Archean cherts is consistent with a dominantly hydrothermal source of silica to the oceans at that time. The monotonically increasing delta Si-30 from 3.8 to 1.5 Ga appears to reflect a general increase in continental versus hydrothermal sources of Si in seawater, as well as the preferential removal of lighter Si isotopes during silica precipitation in iron-associated cherts from silica-saturated seawater. The highest delta Si-30 values are observed in 1.5 Ga peritidal cherts; in part, these enriched values could reflect increasing sequestration of light silica during soil-forming processes, thus, delivering relatively heavy dissolved silica to the oceans from continental sources. The causes behind the reversal in trend towards lower delta Si-30 in cherts younger than 1.5 Ga old are less clear. Cherts deposited 1800-1900 Ma are especially low delta Si-30, a possible indication of transiently strong hydrothermal input at this time. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Trends and Variability of AVHRR-Derived NPP in India

In this paper, we estimate the trends and variability in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) over India for the period 1982-2006. We find an increasing trend of 3.9% per decade (r = 0.78, R-2 = 0.61) during the analysis period. A multivariate linear regression of NPP with temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, soil water and surface solar radiation (r = 0.80, R-2 = 0.65) indicates that the increasing trend is partly driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and the consequent CO2 fertilization of the ecosystems. However, human interventions may have also played a key role in the NPP increase: non-forest NPP growth is largely driven by increases in irrigated area and fertilizer use, while forest NPP is influenced by plantation and forest conservation programs. A similar multivariate regression of interannual NPP anomalies with temperature, precipitation, soil water, solar radiation and CO2 anomalies suggests that the interannual variability in NPP is primarily driven by precipitation and temperature variability. Mean seasonal NPP is largest during post-monsoon and lowest during the pre-monsoon period, thereby indicating the importance of soil moisture for vegetation productivity.

Climatic variability in Central Indian Himalaya during the last similar to 1800 years: Evidence from a high resolution speleothem record

Stable isotopes from a U/Th dated aragonite stalagmite from the Central Kumaun Himalaya provide evidence of variation in climatic conditions in the last similar to 1800 years. The delta O-18 and delta C-13 values vary from -4.3 parts per thousand to -7.6 parts per thousand and -3.4 parts per thousand to -9.1 parts per thousand respectively, although the stalagmite was not grown in isotopic equilibrium with cave drip water, a clear palaeoclimatic signal in stalagmite delta O-18 values is evident based on the regional climate data. The stalagmite showed a rapid growth rate during 830-910 AD, most likely the lower part of Medieval Warm Period (MWP), and 1600-1640 AD, the middle part of Little Ice Age (LIA). Two distinct phases of reduced precipitation are marked by a 2 parts per thousand shift in 8180 values towards the end of MWP (similar to 1080-1160 AD) and after its termination from similar to 1210 to 1440 AD. The LIA (similar to 1440-1880 AD) is represented by sub-tropical climate similar to modern conditions, whereas the post-LIA was comparatively drier. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was located over the cave location during wetter/warmer conditions. When it shifted southward, precipitation over the study area decreased. A prominent drop in delta O-18 and delta C-13 values during the post-LIA period may also have been additionally influenced by anthropogenic activity in the area. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

Seasonal variability of rainfall recorded in growth bands of the Giant African Land Snail Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich) from India

Seasonal rainfall patterns in Bangalore, India, have been reconstructed using stable isotopic ratios in the growth bands of Giant African Land Snail shells. The present study was conducted at Bangalore, India which receives rain during the summer months. The oxygen isotopic record in the rainwater samples collected during different months covering the period of the summer monsoon of the year 2008 is compared with the isotopic ratio in the gastropod growth bands deposited simultaneously. The chronology of the shell growth band is independently established assuming the growth rate observed in a chamber experiment maintaining similar relative humidity and temperature conditions. A consistent pattern observed in the isotopic ratio in the gastropod growth bands and rainwater is demonstrated and provides a novel approach for precipitation reconstruction at seasonal and weekly time scales. This approach of using isotopic ratios in the gastropod growth bands for rainfall can serve as a substitute for filling gaps in rainfall data and for cases where no rain records are available. In addition, they can be used to determine the frequencies and magnitudes of dry spells from the past records. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surface freshwater storage and variability in the Amazon basin from multi-satellite observations, 1993-2007

The amount of water stored and moving through the surface water bodies of large river basins (river, floodplains, wetlands) plays a major role in the global water and biochemical cycles and is a critical parameter for water resources management. However, the spatiotemporal variations of these freshwater reservoirs are still widely unknown at the global scale. Here, we propose a hypsographic curve approach to estimate surface freshwater storage variations over the Amazon basin combining surface water extent from a multi-satellite-technique with topographic data from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) from Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Monthly surface water storage variations for 1993-2007 are presented, showing a strong seasonal and interannual variability, and are evaluated against in situ river discharge and precipitation. The basin-scale mean annual amplitude of similar to 1200 km(3) is in the range of previous estimates and contributes to about half of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage variations. For the first time, we map the surface water volume anomaly during the extreme droughts of 1997 (October-November) and 2005 (September-October) and found that during these dry events the water stored in the river and floodplains of the Amazon basin was, respectively, similar to 230 (similar to 40%) and 210 (similar to 50%) km(3) below the 1993-2007 average. This new 15 year data set of surface water volume represents an unprecedented source of information for future hydrological or climate modeling of the Amazon. It is also a first step toward the development of such database at the global scale.

Comprehensive evaluation of multisatellite precipitation estimates over India using gridded rainfall data

This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of five widely used multisatellite precipitation estimates (MPEs) against 1 degrees x 1 degrees gridded rain gauge data set as ground truth over India. One decade observations are used to assess the performance of various MPEs (Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-South Asia data set, CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project). All MPEs have high detection skills of rain with larger probability of detection (POD) and smaller ``missing'' values. However, the detection sensitivity differs from one product (and also one region) to the other. While the CMORPH has the lowest sensitivity of detecting rain, CPC shows highest sensitivity and often overdetects rain, as evidenced by large POD and false alarm ratio and small missing values. All MPEs show higher rain sensitivity over eastern India than western India. These differential sensitivities are found to alter the biases in rain amount differently. All MPEs show similar spatial patterns of seasonal rain bias and root-mean-square error, but their spatial variability across India is complex and pronounced. The MPEs overestimate the rainfall over the dry regions (northwest and southeast India) and severely underestimate over mountainous regions (west coast and northeast India), whereas the bias is relatively small over the core monsoon zone. Higher occurrence of virga rain due to subcloud evaporation and possible missing of small-scale convective events by gauges over the dry regions are the main reasons for the observed overestimation of rain by MPEs. The decomposed components of total bias show that the major part of overestimation is due to false precipitation. The severe underestimation of rain along the west coast is attributed to the predominant occurrence of shallow rain and underestimation of moderate to heavy rain by MPEs. The decomposed components suggest that the missed precipitation and hit bias are the leading error sources for the total bias along the west coast. All evaluation metrics are found to be nearly equal in two contrasting monsoon seasons (southwest and northeast), indicating that the performance of MPEs does not change with the season, at least over southeast India. Among various MPEs, the performance of TMPA is found to be better than others, as it reproduced most of the spatial variability exhibited by the reference.

Within-Die Gate Delay Variability Measurement using Re-configurable Ring Oscillator

We report a circuit technique to measure the on-chip delay of an individual logic gate (both inverting and non-inverting) in its unmodified form using digitally reconfigurable ring oscillator (RO). Solving a system of linear equations with different configuration setting of the RO gives delay of an individual gate. Experimental results from a test chip in 65nm process node show the feasibility of measuring the delay of an individual inverter to within 1pS accuracy. Delay measurements of different nominally identical inverters in close physical proximity show variations of up to 26% indicating the large impact of local or within-die variations.

A High-Resolution Transmission of the Precipitation Process in a Electron Microscopy Study Dilute Ti-N Alloy

The precipitation processes in dilute nitrogen alloys of titanium have been examined in detail by conventional transmission electron microscopy (CTEM) and high-resolution electron microscopy (HREM). The alloy Ti-2 at. pct N on quenching from its high-temperature beta phase field has been found to undergo early stages of decomposition. The supersaturated solid solution (alpha''-hcp) on decomposition gives rise to an intimately mixed, irresolvable product microstructure. The associated strong tweed contrast presents difficulties in understanding the characteristic features of the process. Therefore, HREM has been carried out with a view to getting a clear picture of the decomposition process. Studies on the quenched samples of the alloy suggest the formation of solute-rich zones of a few atom layers thick, randomly distributed throughout the matrix. On aging, these zones grow to a size beyond which the precipitate/matrix interfaces appear to become incoherent and the alpha' (tetragonal) product phase is seen distinctly. The structural details, the crystallography of the precipitation process, and the sequence of precipitation reaction in the system are illustrated.

The physics of ENSO-monsoon connection

The physical mechanism through which Ei-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to produce deficient precipitation over Indian continent is investigated using both observations as well as a general circulation model. Both analysis of observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) study show that the planetary scale response associated with ENSO primarily influences the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Through this interaction it tends to favour the equatorial heat source, enhance precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean and indirectly cause a decrease in continental precipitation through induced subsidence. This situation is further complicated by the fact the regional tropospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) has a bimodal structure over this region with large amplitude over the Indian continent. While the ENSO response has a quasi-four year periodicity and tends peak during beginning of the calendar year, the QBO mode tends to peak during northern summer. Thus, the QBO mode exerts a stronger influence on the interannual variability of the monsoon. The strength of the Indian monsoon in a given year depends on the combined effect of the ENSO and the QBO mode. Sines the two oscillations have disparate time scales, exact phase information of the two modes during northern summer is important in determining the Indian summer monsoon. The physical mechanism of the interannual variations of the Indian monsoon precipitation associated with ENSO presented here is similar to the physical process that cause intraseasonal 'active', 'break' oscillations of the monsoon.