CAVVA: Computational Affective Video-in-Video Advertising

Advertising is ubiquitous in the online community and more so in the ever-growing and popular online video delivery websites (e. g., YouTube). Video advertising is becoming increasingly popular on these websites. In addition to the existing pre-roll/post-roll advertising and contextual advertising, this paper proposes an in-stream video advertising strategy-Computational Affective Video-in-Video Advertising (CAVVA). Humans being emotional creatures are driven by emotions as well as rational thought. We believe that emotions play a major role in influencing the buying behavior of users and hence propose a video advertising strategy which takes into account the emotional impact of the videos as well as advertisements. Given a video and a set of advertisements, we identify candidate advertisement insertion points (step 1) and also identify the suitable advertisements (step 2) according to theories from marketing and consumer psychology. We formulate this two part problem as a single optimization function in a non-linear 0-1 integer programming framework and provide a genetic algorithm based solution. We evaluate CAVVA using a subjective user-study and eye-tracking experiment. Through these experiments, we demonstrate that CAVVA achieves a good balance between the following seemingly conflicting goals of (a) minimizing the user disturbance because of advertisement insertion while (b) enhancing the user engagement with the advertising content. We compare our method with existing advertising strategies and show that CAVVA can enhance the user's experience and also help increase the monetization potential of the advertising content.

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.