Hybrid moving block bootstrap for stochastic simulation of multi-site multi-season streamflows

The Hybrid approach introduced by the authors for at-site modeling of annual and periodic streamflows in earlier works is extended to simulate multi-site multi-season streamflows. It bears significance in integrated river basin planning studies. This hybrid model involves: (i) partial pre-whitening of standardized multi-season streamflows at each site using a parsimonious linear periodic model; (ii) contemporaneous resampling of the resulting residuals with an appropriate block size, using moving block bootstrap (non-parametric, NP) technique; and (iii) post-blackening the bootstrapped innovation series at each site, by adding the corresponding parametric model component for the site, to obtain generated streamflows at each of the sites. It gains significantly by effectively utilizing the merits of both parametric and NP models. It is able to reproduce various statistics, including the dependence relationships at both spatial and temporal levels without using any normalizing transformations and/or adjustment procedures. The potential of the hybrid model in reproducing a wide variety of statistics including the run characteristics, is demonstrated through an application for multi-site streamflow generation in the Upper Cauvery river basin, Southern India. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing future rainfall projections using multiple GCMs and a multi-site stochastic downscaling model

Impact of global warming on daily rainfall is examined using atmospheric variables from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and a stochastic downscaling model. Daily rainfall at eleven raingauges over Malaprabha catchment of India and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data at grid points over the catchment for a continuous time period 1971-2000 (current climate) are used to calibrate the downscaling model. The downscaled rainfall simulations obtained using GCM atmospheric variables corresponding to the IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 emission scenario for the same period are used to validate the results. Following this, future downscaled rainfall projections are constructed and examined for two 20 year time slices viz. 2055 (i.e. 2046-2065) and 2090 (i.e. 2081-2100). The model results show reasonable skill in simulating the rainfall over the study region for the current climate. The downscaled rainfall projections indicate no significant changes in the rainfall regime in this catchment in the future. More specifically, 2% decrease by 2055 and 5% decrease by 2090 in monsoon (HAS) rainfall compared to the current climate (1971-2000) under global warming conditions are noticed. Also, pre-monsoon (JFMAM) and post-monsoon (OND) rainfall is projected to increase respectively, by 2% in 2055 and 6% in 2090 and, 2% in 2055 and 12% in 2090, over the region. On annual basis slight decreases of 1% and 2% are noted for 2055 and 2090, respectively.

Development of design charts for stress intensity factors at tips of multi-site cracks in unstiffened curved panels

Multi-site damage need to be addressed and evaluated in order to assess the integrity of aging aircraft structures. One of the problems recognized in the recent times is the effect of interaction between two or more cracks in the close neighborhood in such structures. The present paper deals with such a problem and presents numerical estimates of stress intensity factors at a crack tip in an un-stiffened curved panel with a secondary crack in the vicinity of a primary crack. The results are presented in the form of design charts. These results should be useful in evaluation in the damage tolerance evaluation of aircraft structures with multi-site damage. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature using support vector machine

Climate change impact assessment studies involve downscaling large-scale atmospheric predictor variables (LSAPVs) simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to site-scale meteorological variables. This article presents a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)-based methodology for multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature series. The methodology involves (1) delineation of sites in the study area into clusters based on correlation structure of predictands, (2) downscaling LSAPVs to monthly time series of predictands at a representative site identified in each of the clusters, (3) translation of the downscaled information in each cluster from the representative site to that at other sites using LS-SVM inter-site regression relationships, and (4) disaggregation of the information at each site from monthly to daily time scale using k-nearest neighbour disaggregation methodology. Effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by application to data pertaining to four sites in the catchment of Beas river basin, India. Simulations of Canadian coupled global climate model (CGCM3.1/T63) for four IPCC SRES scenarios namely A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT were downscaled to future projections of the predictands in the study area. Comparison of results with those based on recently proposed multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) based downscaling method and multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling (MMSD) method indicate that the proposed method is promising and it can be considered as a feasible choice in statistical downscaling studies. The performance of the method in downscaling daily minimum temperature was found to be better when compared with that in downscaling daily maximum temperature. Results indicate an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures at all the sites for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The projected increment is high for A2 scenario, and it is followed by that for A1B, B1 and COMMIT scenarios. Projections, in general, indicated an increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures during January to February and October to December.

Multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation for Bangalore city, India

Different seismic hazard components pertaining to Bangalore city,namely soil overburden thickness, effective shear-wave velocity, factor of safety against liquefaction potential, peak ground acceleration at the seismic bedrock, site response in terms of amplification factor, and the predominant frequency, has been individually evaluated. The overburden thickness distribution, predominantly in the range of 5-10 m in the city, has been estimated through a sub-surface model from geotechnical bore-log data. The effective shear-wave velocity distribution, established through Multi-channel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) survey and subsequent data interpretation through dispersion analysis, exhibits site class D (180-360 m/s), site class C (360-760 m/s), and site class B (760-1500 m/s) in compliance to the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) nomenclature. The peak ground acceleration has been estimated through deterministic approach, based on the maximum credible earthquake of M-W = 5.1 assumed to be nucleating from the closest active seismic source (Mandya-Channapatna-Bangalore Lineament). The 1-D site response factor, computed at each borehole through geotechnical analysis across the study region, is seen to be ranging from around amplification of one to as high as four times. Correspondingly, the predominant frequency estimated from the Fourier spectrum is found to be predominantly in range of 3.5-5.0 Hz. The soil liquefaction hazard assessment has been estimated in terms of factor of safety against liquefaction potential using standard penetration test data and the underlying soil properties that indicates 90% of the study region to be non-liquefiable. The spatial distributions of the different hazard entities are placed on a GIS platform and subsequently, integrated through analytical hierarchal process. The accomplished deterministic hazard map shows high hazard coverage in the western areas. The microzonation, thus, achieved is envisaged as a first-cut assessment of the site specific hazard in laying out a framework for higher order seismic microzonation as well as a useful decision support tool in overall land-use planning, and hazard management. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large improvements in application throughput of long-running multi-component applications using batch grids

Computational grids with multiple batch systems (batch grids) can be powerful infrastructures for executing long-running multi-component parallel applications. In this paper, we evaluate the potential improvements in throughput of long-running multi-component applications when the different components of the applications are executed on multiple batch systems of batch grids. We compare the multiple batch executions with executions of the components on a single batch system without increasing the number of processors used for executions. We perform our analysis with a foremost long-running multi-component application for climate modeling, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). We have built a robust simulator that models the characteristics of both the multi-component application and the batch systems. By conducting large number of simulations with different workload characteristics and queuing policies of the systems, processor allocations to components of the application, distributions of the components to the batch systems and inter-cluster bandwidths, we show that multiple batch executions lead to 55% average increase in throughput over single batch executions for long-running CCSM. We also conducted real experiments with a practical middleware infrastructure and showed that multi-site executions lead to effective utilization of batch systems for executions of CCSM and give higher simulation throughput than single-site executions. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Executing Long-running Multi-component Applications on Batch Grids

Computational grids are increasingly being used for executing large multi-component scientific applications. The most widely reported advantages of application execution on grids are the performance benefits, in terms of speeds, problem sizes or quality of solutions, due to increased number of processors. We explore the possibility of improved performance on grids without increasing the application’s processor space. For this, we consider grids with multiple batch systems. We explore the challenges involved in and the advantages of executing long-running multi-component applications on multiple batch sites with a popular multi-component climate simulation application, CCSM, as the motivation.We have performed extensive simulation studies to estimate the single and multi-site execution rates of the applications for different system characteristics.Our experiments show that in many cases, multiple batch executions can have better execution rates than a single site execution.

Adaptive Executions of Multi-Physics Coupled Applications on Batch Grids

Long running multi-physics coupled parallel applications have gained prominence in recent years. The high computational requirements and long durations of simulations of these applications necessitate the use of multiple systems of a Grid for execution. In this paper, we have built an adaptive middleware framework for execution of long running multi-physics coupled applications across multiple batch systems of a Grid. Our framework, apart from coordinating the executions of the component jobs of an application on different batch systems, also automatically resubmits the jobs multiple times to the batch queues to continue and sustain long running executions. As the set of active batch systems available for execution changes, our framework performs migration and rescheduling of components using a robust rescheduling decision algorithm. We have used our framework for improving the application throughput of a foremost long running multi-component application for climate modeling, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). Our real multi-site experiments with CCSM indicate that Grid executions can lead to improved application throughput for climate models.

Analytical Determination of Residual Strength and Linkup Strength for Flat Panels, with Multiple Site Damage

The problem of multiple site damage in aged airplane fuselage is handled in this paper. The analytical and numerical procedures used for the estimation of the strength of a flat panel with such multi-site damage are presented. Further, numerical results are presented on the residual strength of the panel using fracture mechanics-based approach and the stress levels when the leading crack is likely to link up with multiple site damage cracks. The presence of multiple site damage cracks in the vicinity of leading crack significantly decreases the residual strength of the panel. The model is verified using experimental data from the open literature and the predictions are in good agreement with the measured residual strength.

A performance-based framework for assessing liquefaction potential based on CPT data

This article describes a new performance-based approach for evaluating the return period of seismic soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) data. The conventional liquefaction evaluation methods consider a single acceleration level and magnitude and these approaches fail to take into account the uncertainty in earthquake loading. The seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic method clearly shows that a particular acceleration value is being contributed by different magnitudes with varying probability. In the new method presented in this article, the entire range of ground shaking and the entire range of earthquake magnitude are considered and the liquefaction return period is evaluated based on the SPT and CPT data. This article explains the performance-based methodology for the liquefaction analysis – starting from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the evaluation of seismic hazard and the performance-based method to evaluate the liquefaction return period. A case study has been done for Bangalore, India, based on SPT data and converted CPT values. The comparison of results obtained from both the methods have been presented. In an area of 220 km2 in Bangalore city, the site class was assessed based on large number of borehole data and 58 Multi-channel analysis of surface wave survey. Using the site class and peak acceleration at rock depth from PSHA, the peak ground acceleration at the ground surface was estimated using probabilistic approach. The liquefaction analysis was done based on 450 borehole data obtained in the study area. The results of CPT match well with the results obtained from similar analysis with SPT data.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds-A hierarchy in modelling: Part II

A two-state model allowing for size disparity between the solvent and the adsorbate is analysed to derive the adsorption isotherm for electrosorption of organic compounds. Explicity, the organic adsorbate is assumed to occupy "n" lattice sites at the interface as compared to "one" by the solvent. The model parameters are the respective permanent and induced dipole moments apart from the nearest neighbour distance. The coulombic interactions due to permanent and induced dipole moments, discreteness of charge effects, and short-range and specific substrate interactions have all been incorporated. The adsorption isotherm is then derived using mean field approximation (MFA) and is found to be more general than the earlier multi-site versions of Bockris and Swinkels, Mohilner et al., and Bennes, as far as the entropy contributions are concerned. The role of electrostatic forces is explicity reflected in the adsorption isotherm via the Gibbs energy of adsorption term which itself is a quadratic function of the electrode charge-density. The approximation implicit in the adsorption isotherm of Mohilner et al. or Bennes is indicated briefly.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds - A hierarchy in modelling: Part V. Models for the inner layer potential difference in the presence of dipolar adsorption

The relations for the inner layer potential &fference (E) in the presence of adsorbed orgamc molecules are derived for three hterarchlcal models, m terms of molecular constants like permanent &pole moments, polarlzablhtles, etc It is shown how the experimentally observed patterns of the E vs 0 plots (hnear m all ranges of $\sigma^M$, non-linear in one or both regions of o M, etc ) can be understood in a serm-quantltatlve manner from the simplest model in our hierarchy, viz the two-state site panty version Two-state multi-site and three-state (sxte panty) models are also analysed and the slope (3E/80),,M tabulated for these also The results for the Esm-Markov effect are denved for all the models and compared with the earlier result of Parsons. A comparison with the GSL phenomenologlcal equation is presented and its molecular basis, as well as the hmltatlons, is analysed. In partxcular, two-state multa-slte and three-state (site panty) models yield E-o M relations that are more general than the "umfied" GSL equation The posslblhty of vaewlng the compact layer as a "composite medium" with an "effective dlelectnc constant" and obtaimng novel phenomenological descnptions IS also indicated.

Comparison Of If Estimation Methods For Noise Robustness

Non-stationary signal modeling is a well addressed problem in the literature. Many methods have been proposed to model non-stationary signals such as time varying linear prediction and AM-FM modeling, the later being more popular. Estimation techniques to determine the AM-FM components of narrow-band signal, such as Hilbert transform, DESA1, DESA2, auditory processing approach, ZC approach, etc., are prevalent but their robustness to noise is not clearly addressed in the literature. This is critical for most practical applications, such as in communications. We explore the robustness of different AM-FM estimators in the presence of white Gaussian noise. Also, we have proposed three new methods for IF estimation based on non-uniform samples of the signal and multi-resolution analysis. Experimental results show that ZC based methods give better results than the popular methods such as DESA in clean condition as well as noisy condition.

Seismic damage estimation through measurable dynamic characteristics

Ductility based design of reinforced concrete structures implicitly assumes certain damage under the action of a design basis earthquake. The damage undergone by a structure needs to be quantified, so as to assess the post-seismic reparability and functionality of the structure. The paper presents an analytical method of quantification and location of seismic damage, through system identification methods. It may be noted that soft ground storied buildings are the major casualties in any earthquake and hence the example structure is a soft or weak first storied one, whose seismic response and temporal variation of damage are computed using a non-linear dynamic analysis program (IDARC) and compared with a normal structure. Time period based damage identification model is used and suitably calibrated with classic damage models. Regenerated stiffness of the three degrees of freedom model (for the three storied frame) is used to locate the damage, both on-line as well as after the seismic event. Multi resolution analysis using wavelets is also used for localized damage identification for soft storey columns.

Image fusion in GRDSS for Land use Mapping

Image fusion techniques are useful to integrate the geometric detail of a high-resolution panchromatic (PAN) image and the spectral information of a low-resolution multispectral (MSS) image, particularly important for understanding land use dynamics at larger scale (1:25000 or lower), which is required by the decision makers to adopt holistic approaches for regional planning. Fused images can extract features from source images and provide more information than one scene of MSS image. High spectral resolution aids in identification of objects more distinctly while high spatial resolution allows locating the objects more clearly. The geoinformatics technologies with an ability to provide high-spatial-spectral-resolution data helps in inventorying, mapping, monitoring and sustainable management of natural resources. Fusion module in GRDSS, taking into consideration the limitations in spatial resolution of MSS data and spectral resolution of PAN data, provide high-spatial-spectral-resolution remote sensing images required for land use mapping on regional scale. GRDSS is a freeware GIS Graphic User Interface (GUI) developed in Tcl/Tk is based on command line arguments of GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) with the functionalities for raster analysis, vector analysis, site analysis, image processing, modeling and graphics visualization. It has the capabilities to capture, store, process, analyse, prioritize and display spatial and temporal data.