Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Climate change and forests in India: adaptation opportunities and challenges

Climate change is projected to lead to shift of forest types leading to irreversible damage to forests by rendering several species extinct and potentially affecting the livelihoods of local communities and the economy. Approximately 47% and 42% of tropical dry deciduous grids are projected to undergo shifts under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios respectively, as opposed to less than 16% grids comprising of tropical wet evergreen forests. Similarly, the tropical thorny scrub forest is projected to undergo shifts in majority of forested grids under A2 (more than 80%) as well as B2 scenarios (50% of grids). Thus the forest managers and policymakers need to adapt to the ecological as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change. This requires formulation of effective forest management policies and practices, incorporating climate concerns into long-term forest policy and management plans. India has formulated a large number of innovative and progressive forest policies but a mechanism to ensure effective implementation of these policies is needed. Additional policies and practices may be needed to address the impacts of climate change. This paper discusses an approach and steps involved in the development of an adaptation framework as well as policies, strategies and practices needed for mainstreaming adaptation to cope with projected climate change. Further, the existing barriers which may affect proactive adaptation planning given the scale, accuracy and uncertainty associated with assessing climate change impacts are presented.

Forest policies and programs affecting vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

Due to large scale afforestation programs and forest conservation legislations, India's total forest area seems to have stabilized or even increased. In spite of such efforts, forest fragmentation and degradation continues, with forests being subject to increased pressure due to anthropogenic factors. Such fragmentation and degradation is leading to the forest cover to change from very dense to moderately dense and open forest and 253 km(2) of very dense forest has been converted to moderately dense forest, open forest, scrub and non-forest (during 2005-2007). Similarly, there has been a degradation of 4,120 km(2) of moderately dense forest to open forest, scrub and non-forest resulting in a net loss of 936 km(2) of moderately dense forest. Additionally, 4,335 km(2) of open forest have degraded to scrub and non-forest. Coupled with pressure due to anthropogenic factors, climate change is likely to be an added stress on forests. Forest sector programs and policies are major factors that determine the status of forests and potentially resilience to projected impacts of climate change. An attempt is made to review the forest policies and programs and their implications for the status of forests and for vulnerability of forests to projected climate change. The study concludes that forest conservation and development policies and programs need to be oriented to incorporate climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

Low electric field, easily reversible electrical set and reset processes in a Ge15Te83Si2 glass for phase change memory applications

We report here an easily reversible set-reset process in a new Ge15Te83Si2 glass that could be a promising candidate for phase change random access memory applications. The I-V characteristics of the studied sample show a comparatively low threshold electric field (E-th) of 7.3 kV/cm. Distinct differences in the type of switching behavior are achieved by means of controlling the on state current. It enables the observation of a threshold type for less than 0.7 mA beyond memory type (set) switching. The set and reset processes have been achieved with a similar magnitude of 1 mA, and with a triangular current pulse for the set process and a short duration rectangular pulse of 10 msec width for the reset operation. Further, a self-resetting effect is seen in this material upon excitation with a saw-tooth/square pulse, and their response of leading and trailing edges are discussed. About 6.5 x 10(4) set-reset cycles have been undertaken without any damage to the device. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. doi: 10.1063/1.3574659]

Analytical solutions for heat transfer during cyclic melting and freezing of a phase change material used in electronic or electrical packaging

In this paper we develop an analytical heat transfer model, which is capable of analyzing cyclic melting and solidification processes of a phase change material used in the context of electronics cooling systems. The model is essentially based on conduction heat transfer, with treatments for convection and radiation embedded inside. The whole solution domain is first divided into two main sub-domains, namely, the melting sub-domain and the solidification sub-domain. Each sub-domain is then analyzed for a number of temporal regimes. Accordingly, analytical solutions for temperature distribution within each subdomain are formulated either using a semi-infinity consideration, or employing a method of quasi-steady state, depending on the applicability. The solution modules are subsequently united, leading to a closed-form solution for the entire problem. The analytical solutions are then compared with experimental and numerical solutions for a benchmark problem quoted in the literature, and excellent agreements can be observed.

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and forests in India

Forests play a critical role in addressing climate change concerns in the broader context of global change and sustainable development. Forests are linked to climate change in three ways. i) Forests are a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: ii) Forests offer mitigation opportunities to stabilise GHG concentrations: iii) Forests are impacted by climate change. This paper reviews studies related to climate change and forests in India: first, the studies estimating carbon inventory for the Indian land use change and forestry sector (LUCF), then the different models and mitigation potential estimates for the LUCF sector in India. Finally it reviews the studies on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in India, identifying the implications for net primary productivity and bio-diversity. The paper highlights data, modelling and research gaps relevant to the GHG inventory, mitigation potential and vulnerability and impact assessments for the forest sector in India.

Heterologous promoter recognition leading to high-level expression of cloned foreign genes in Bombyx mori cell lines and larvae

The baculovirus expression system using the Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) has been extensively utilized for high-level expression of cloned foreign genes, driven by the strong viral promoters of polyhedrin (polh) and p10 encoding genes. A parallel system using Bombyx mori nuclear polyhedrosis virus (BmNPV) is much less exploited because the choice and variety of BmNPV-based transfer vectors are limited. Using a transient expression assay, we have demonstrated here that the heterologous promoters of the very late genes polh and p10 from AcNPV function as efficiently in BmN cells as the BmNPV promoters. The location of the cloned foreign gene with respect to the promoter sequences was critical for achieving the highest levels of expression, following the order +35 > +1 > -3 > -8 nucleotides (nt) with respect to the polh or p10 start codons. We have successfully generated recombinant BmNPV harboring AcNPV promoters by homeologous recombination between AcNPV-based transfer vectors and BmNPV genomic DNA. Infection of BmN cell lines with recombinant BmNPV showed a temporal expression pattern, reaching very high levels in 60-72 h post infection. The recombinant BmNPV harboring the firefly luciferase-encoding gene under the control of AcNPV polh or p10 promoters, on infection of the silkworm larvae led to the synthesis of large quantities of luciferase. Such larvae emanated significant luminiscence instantaneously on administration of the substrate luciferin resulting in 'glowing silkworms'. The virus-infected larvae continued to glow for several hours and revealed the most abundant distribution of virus in the fat bodies. In larval expression also, the highest levels were achieved when the reporter gene was located at +35 nt of the polh.

High-Temperature Phase Transition Studies in a Novel Fast Ion Conductor, Na2Cd(SO4)2, Probed by Raman Spectroscopy

Temperature-dependent Raman spectroscopic studies were carried out on Na2Cd(SO4)(2) from room temperature to 600 degrees C. We observe two transitions at around 280 and 565 degrees C. These transitions are driven by the change in the SO4 ion. On the basis of these studies, one can explain the changes in the conductivity data observed around 280 and 565 degrees C. At 280 degrees C, spontaneous tilting of the SO4 ion leads to restriction of Na+ mobility. Above 565 degrees C, the SO4 ion starts to rotate freely, leading to increased mobility of Na+ ion in the channel.

Problems with geoengineering schemes to combat climate change

The accelerated rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration in recent years has revived the idea of stabilizing the global climate through geoengineering schemes. Majority of the proposed geoengineering schemes will attempt to reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed by our planet. Climate modelling studies of these so called 'sunshade geoengineering schemes' show that global warming from increasing concentrations of CO2 can be mitigated by intentionally manipulating the amount of sunlight absorbed by the climate system. These studies also suggest that the residual changes could be large on regional scales, so that climate change may not be mitigated on a local basis. More recent modelling studies have shown that these schemes could lead to a slow-down in the global hydrological cycle. Other problems such as changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and ocean acidification remain unsolved by sunshade geoengineering schemes. In this article, I review the proposed geoengineering schemes, results from climate models and discuss why geoengineering is not the best option to deal with climate change.

Equivariant Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture for the Base Change of Elliptic Curves: An Example

Let E be an elliptic curve defined over Q and let K/Q be a finite Galois extension with Galois group G. The equivariant Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture for h(1)(E x(Q) K)(1) viewed as amotive over Q with coefficients in Q[G] relates the twisted L-values associated with E with the arithmetic invariants of the same. In this paper I prescribe an approach to verify this conjecture for a given data. Using this approach, we verify the conjecture for an elliptic curve of conductor 11 and an S-3-extension of Q.

A Scalable High Throughput Firewall in FPGA

High end network security applications demand high speed operation and large rule set support. Packet classification is the core functionality that demands high throughput in such applications. This paper proposes a packet classification architecture to meet such high throughput. We have implemented a Firewall with this architecture in reconflgurable hardware. We propose an extension to Distributed Crossproducting of Field Labels (DCFL) technique to achieve scalable and high performance architecture. The implemented Firewall takes advantage of inherent structure and redundancy of rule set by using our DCFL Extended (DCFLE) algorithm. The use of DCFLE algorithm results in both speed and area improvement when it is implemented in hardware. Although we restrict ourselves to standard 5-tuple matching, the architecture supports additional fields. High throughput classification invariably uses Ternary Content Addressable Memory (TCAM) for prefix matching, though TCAM fares poorly in terms of area and power efficiency. Use of TCAM for port range matching is expensive, as the range to prefix conversion results in large number of prefixes leading to storage inefficiency. Extended TCAM (ETCAM) is fast and the most storage efficient solution for range matching. We present for the first time a reconfigurable hardware implementation of ETCAM. We have implemented our Firewall as an embedded system on Virtex-II Pro FPGA based platform, running Linux with the packet classification in hardware. The Firewall was tested in real time with 1 Gbps Ethernet link and 128 sample rules. The packet classification hardware uses a quarter of logic resources and slightly over one third of memory resources of XC2VP30 FPGA. It achieves a maximum classification throughput of 50 million packet/s corresponding to 16 Gbps link rate for the worst case packet size. The Firewall rule update involves only memory re-initialization in software without any hardware change.

Unsteady Natural Convection Flow in a Square Cavity Filled with a Porous Medium Due to Impulsive Change in Wall Temperature

Unsteady natural convection flow in a two- dimensional square cavity filled with a porous material has been studied. The flow is initially steady where the left- hand vertical wall has temperature T-h and the right- hand vertical wall is maintained at temperature T-c ( T-h > T-c) and the horizontal walls are insulated. At time t > 0, the left- hand vertical wall temperature is suddenly raised to (T-h) over bar ((T-h) over bar > T-h) which introduces unsteadiness in the flow field. The partial differential equations governing the unsteady natural convection flow have been solved numerically using a finite control volume method. The computation has been carried out until the final steady state is reached. It is found that the average Nusselt number attains a minimum during the transient period and that the time required to reach the final steady state is longer for low Rayleigh number and shorter for high Rayleigh number.

A Scalable High Throughput Firewall in FPGA

High end network security applications demand high speed operation and large rule set support. Packet classification is the core functionality that demands high throughput in such applications. This paper proposes a packet classification architecture to meet such high throughput. We have Implemented a Firewall with this architecture in reconfigurable hardware. We propose an extension to Distributed Crossproducting of Field Labels (DCFL) technique to achieve scalable and high performance architecture. The implemented Firewall takes advantage of inherent structure and redundancy of rule set by using, our DCFL Extended (DCFLE) algorithm. The use of DCFLE algorithm results In both speed and area Improvement when It is Implemented in hardware. Although we restrict ourselves to standard 5-tuple matching, the architecture supports additional fields.High throughput classification Invariably uses Ternary Content Addressable Memory (TCAM) for prefix matching, though TCAM fares poorly In terms of area and power efficiency. Use of TCAM for port range matching is expensive, as the range to prefix conversion results in large number of prefixes leading to storage inefficiency. Extended TCAM (ETCAM) is fast and the most storage efficient solution for range matching. We present for the first time a reconfigurable hardware Implementation of ETCAM. We have implemented our Firewall as an embedded system on Virtex-II Pro FPGA based platform, running Linux with the packet classification in hardware. The Firewall was tested in real time with 1 Gbps Ethernet link and 128 sample rules. The packet classification hardware uses a quarter of logic resources and slightly over one third of memory resources of XC2VP30 FPGA. It achieves a maximum classification throughput of 50 million packet/s corresponding to 16 Gbps link rate for file worst case packet size. The Firewall rule update Involves only memory re-initialiization in software without any hardware change.

Codoping Effect of Zn and Pr in YBa2Cu3O7-delta

In this paper we present the resistivity data for Pr and Zn codoped compound Y1-xPrxBa2[Cu1-yZny](3)O7-delta with 0 < y < 0.1 and x = 0.0, 0.1 and 0.2. The data is analysed in terms of the superconducting critical temperature T-c, residual resistivity rho(0) and the resistivity slope d rho/dT corresponding to the linear rho-T region. It is found that for x = 0.1 Pr has a minimal influence on the in-plane processes for Zn impurity alone affecting slightly T-c and rho(0). The slope dp/dT becomes larger for 0.03 < y < 0.06 leading to larger depining effect and hence slower fall of T, as a function of y. For x = 0.2 there is a drastic change, rho(0) becomes abnormally large, d rho/dT becomes negative implying absence of depinning and a totally pinned charge stripes. Superconductivity vanishes at y = 0.03. It is concluded that for x = 0.2 Pr converts the system from overdoped to underdoped region leading to the universal superconductor-insulator transition.