Relationship between annual rainfall and tree mortality in a tropical dry forest: Results of a 19-year study at Mudumalai, southern India

Variability in rainfall is known to be a major influence on the dynamics of tropical forests, especially rates and patterns of tree mortality. In tropical dry forests a number of contributing factors to tree mortality, including dry season fire and herbivory by large herbivorous mammals, could be related to rainfall patterns, while loss of water potential in trees during the dry season or a wet season drought could also result in enhanced rates of death. While tree mortality as influenced by severe drought has been examined in tropical wet forests there is insufficient understanding of this process in tropical dry forests. We examined these causal factors in relation to inter-annual differences in rainfall in causing tree mortality within a 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot located in the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mudumalai, southern India, that has been monitored annually since 1988. Over a 19-year period (1988-2007) mean annual mortality rate of all stems >1 cm dbh was 6.9 +/- 4.6% (range = 1.5-17.5%); mortality rates broadly declined from the smaller to the larger size classes with the rates in stems >30 cm dbh being among the lowest recorded in tropical forest globally. Fire was the main agent of mortality in stems 1-5 cm dbh, elephant-herbivory in stems 5-10 cm dbh, and other natural causes in stems > 10 cm dbh. Elephant-related mortality did not show any relationship to rainfall. On the other hand, fire-related mortality was significantly negatively correlated to quantity of rainfall during the preceding year. Mortality due to other causes in the larger stem sizes was significantly negatively correlated to rainfall with a 2-3-year lag, suggesting that water deficit from mild or prolonged drought enhanced the risk of death but only with a time lag that was greater than similar lags in tree mortality observed in other forest types. In this respect, tropical dry forests growing in regions of high rainfall variability may have evolved greater resistance to rainfall deficit as compared to tropical moist or temperate forests but are still vulnerable to drought-related mortality.

A delphi study on health in future India

PIP: A delphi study was conducted to identify or envision health scenarios in India by the year 2000. Questionnaires consisting of 48 questions on 5 areas (diagnosis and therapy; family planning; pharmaceuticals and drugs; biochemical and biomedical research; health services) were mailed to 250 experts in India. 36 responded. Results were compiled and mailed back to the respondents for changes and comments. 17 people responded. Results of the delphi study shows that policy decisions with respect to compulsory family planning as well as health education at secondary school level will precede further breakthroughs in birth control technology. Non operation reversible sterilization procedures, immunological birth control, Ayurvedic medicines for contraception and abortion, and selection of baby's sex are all possible by 2000 thereafter. Complete eradication of infectious diseases, malnutrition and associated diseases is considered unlikely before 2000, as are advances in biomedical research. Changes in health services (e.g., significant increases in hospital beds and doctors, cheap bulk drugs), particularly in rural areas, are imminent, leading to prolonging of life expectancy to 70 years. Genetic engineering may provide significant breakthroughs in the prevention of malignancies and cardiac disorders. The India delphi study is patterned after a similar delphi study conducted in the U.S. by Smith, Kline and French (SKF) Laboratories in 1968. The SKF study was able to predict some breakthroughs with basic research which have been realized.