Primates, Provisioning and Plants: Impacts of Human Cultural Behaviours on Primate Ecological Functions

Human provisioning of wildlife with food is a widespread global practice that occurs in multiple socio-cultural circumstances. Provisioning may indirectly alter ecosystem functioning through changes in the eco-ethology of animals, but few studies have quantified this aspect. Provisioning of primates by humans is known to impact their activity budgets, diets and ranging patterns. Primates are also keystone species in tropical forests through their role as seed dispersers; yet there is no information on how provisioning might affect primate ecological functions. The rhesus macaque is a major human-commensal species but is also an important seed disperser in the wild. In this study, we investigated the potential impacts of provisioning on the role of rhesus macaques as seed dispersers in the Buxa Tiger Reserve, India. We studied a troop of macaques which were provisioned for a part of the year and were dependent on natural resources for the rest. We observed feeding behaviour, seed handling techniques and ranging patterns of the macaques and monitored availability of wild fruits. Irrespective of fruit availability, frugivory and seed dispersal activities decreased when the macaques were provisioned. Provisioned macaques also had shortened daily ranges implying shorter dispersal distances. Finally, during provisioning periods, seeds were deposited on tarmac roads that were unconducive for germination. Provisioning promotes human-primate conflict, as commensal primates are often involved in aggressive encounters with humans over resources, leading to negative consequences for both parties involved. Preventing or curbing provisioning is not an easy task as feeding wild animals is a socio-cultural tradition across much of South and South-East Asia, including India. We recommend the initiation of literacy programmes that educate lay citizens about the ill-effects of provisioning and strongly caution them against the practice.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Impacts of climate change on regional water resources

Water is the most important medium through which climate change influences human life. Rising temperatures together with regional changes in precipitation patterns are some of the impacts of climate change that have implications on water availability, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture, water quality, water supply and water demands for irrigation and hydropower generation. In this article we provide an introduction to the emerging field of hydrologic impacts of climate change with a focus on water availability, water quality and irrigation demands. Climate change estimates on regional or local spatial scales are burdened with a considerable amount of uncertainty, stemming from various sources such as climate models, downscaling and hydrological models used in the impact assessments and uncertainty in the downscaling relationships. The present article summarizes the recent advances on uncertainty modeling and regional impacts of climate change for the Mahanadi and Tunga-Bhadra Rivers in India.

Modeling the vulnerability of an urban groundwater system due to the combined impacts of climate change and management scenarios

Climate change impact on a groundwater-dependent small urban town has been investigated in the semiarid hard rock aquifer in southern India. A distributed groundwater model was used to simulate the groundwater levels in the study region for the projected future rainfall (2012-32) obtained from a general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the impacts of climate change and management practices on groundwater system. Management practices were based on the human-induced changes on the urban infrastructure such as reduced recharge from the lakes, reduced recharge from water and wastewater utility due to an operational and functioning underground drainage system, and additional water extracted by the water utility for domestic purposes. An assessment of impacts on the groundwater levels was carried out by calibrating a groundwater model using comprehensive data gathered during the period 2008-11 and then simulating the future groundwater level changes using rainfall from six GCMs Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model, version 3.0 (INM-CM. 3.0); L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL-CM4); Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 3.2 (MIROC3.2); ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G); Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3); and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 1 (HadGEM1)] that were found to show good correlation to the historical rainfall in the study area. The model results for the present condition indicate that the annual average discharge (sum of pumping and natural groundwater outflow) was marginally or moderately higher at various locations than the recharge and further the recharge is aided from the recharge from the lakes. Model simulations showed that groundwater levels were vulnerable to the GCM rainfall and a scenario of moderate reduction in recharge from lakes. Hence, it is important to sustain the induced recharge from lakes by ensuring that sufficient runoff water flows to these lakes.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.