Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore

This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Bangalore, South India. Analyses have been carried out considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 350 km keeping Bangalore as the center. Seismic hazard parameter `b' has been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using (1) Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relationship and (2) Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) method utilizing extreme and complete catalogs. The `b' parameter was estimated to be 0.62 to 0.98 from G-R relation and 0.87 +/- A 0.03 from Kijko and Sellevoll method. The results obtained are a little higher than the `b' values published earlier for southern India. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore region has been carried out considering six seismogenic sources. From the analysis, mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of the rock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) are mapped for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km x 0.5 km. In addition, Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is also developed for the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.121 g obtained from the present investigation is slightly lower (but comparable) than the PGA values obtained from the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) for the same area. However, the PGA value obtained in the current investigation is higher than PGA values reported in the global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et al. (1999) for the shield area.

Socio-environmental impact of idol immersion: dimensions and directions

India possesses a diverse and rich cultural heritage and is renowned as a 'land of festivals'. These festivals attract massive community involvement paving way to new materials such as 'Plaster of Paris' being used for 'modernizing' the representation of idols with very little thought given to the issues of toxicity and environmental impacts. Another dimension to the whole issue is the plight of the artisans and the workers involved in the trade. Owing to the unorganized nature of the industry there is minimal or no guidelines pertaining-to the worker safety and health risks of the people involved. This paper attempts to address the complexities of the inherent hazards as a consequence of these socio-environmental issues and trace the scientific rationale in addressing them in a practical and pragmatic way.

Site classification and estimation of surface level seismic hazard using geophysical data and probabilistic approach

This paper presents the site classification of Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area using geophysical data and the evaluation of spectral acceleration at ground level using probabilistic approach. Site classification has been carried out using experimental data from the shallow geophysical method of Multichannel Analysis of Surface wave (MASW). One-dimensional (1-D) MASW survey has been carried out at 58 locations and respective velocity profiles are obtained. The average shear wave velocity for 30 m depth (Vs(30)) has been calculated and is used for the site classification of the BMP area as per NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program). Based on the Vs(30) values major part of the BMP area can be classified as ``site class D'', and ``site class C'. A smaller portion of the study area, in and around Lalbagh Park, is classified as ``site class B''. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out to map the seismic hazard in terms spectral acceleration (S-a) at rock and the ground level considering the site classes and six seismogenic sources identified. The mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for S. have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of spectral acceleration for short period and long period are mapped for rock, site class C and D with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km. In addition to this, the Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at surface level has been developed for the 5% damping and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock, site class C and D These spectral acceleration and uniform hazard spectrums can be used to assess the design force for important structures and also to develop the design spectrum.

Estimation of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for South India with local site effects: probabilistic approach

In this work an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard of South India (8.0 degrees N-20 degrees N; 72 degrees E-88 degrees E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The earthquake data obtained from different sources were declustered to remove the dependent events. A total of 598 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were obtained from the study area after declustering, and were considered for further hazard analysis. The seismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones in the study area which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. For assessing theseismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1 degrees x0.1 degrees, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the centre of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources with in a radius of 300 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values at 1 corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been calculated for all the grid points. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of these values are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at rock level for 5% damping and 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were also developed for all the grid points. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at surface level was calculated for the entire South India for four different site classes. These values can be used to find the PGA values at any site in South India based on site class at that location. Thus, this method can be viewed as a simplified method to evaluate the PGA values at any site in the study area.

Mapping of Average Shear Wave Velocity for Bangalore Region: A Case Study

Mapping the shear wave velocity profile is an important part in seismic hazard and microzonation studies. The shear wave velocity of soil in the city of Bangalore was mapped using the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) technique. An empirical relationship was found between the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) corrected N value ((N1)60cs) and measured shear wave velocity (Vs). The survey points were selected in such a way that the results represent the entire Bangalore region, covering an area of 220 km2. Fifty-eight 1-D and 20 2-D MASW surveys were performed and their velocity profiles determined. The average shear wave velocity of Bangalore soils was evaluated for depths of 5 m, 10 m, 15 m, 20 m, 25 m and 30 m. The sub-soil classification was made for seismic local site effect evaluation based on average shear wave velocity of 30-m depth (Vs30) of sites using the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and International Building Code (IBC) classification. Mapping clearly indicates that the depth of soil obtained from MASW closely matches with the soil layers identified in SPT bore holes. Estimation of local site effects for an earthquake requires knowledge of the dynamic properties of soil, which is usually expressed in terms of shear wave velocity. Hence, to make use of abundant SPT data available on many geotechnical projects in Bangalore, an attempt was made to develop a relationship between Vs (m/s) and (N1)60cs. The measured shear wave velocity at 38 locations close to SPT boreholes was used to generate the correlation between the corrected N values and shear wave velocity. A power fit model correlation was developed with a regression coefficient (R2) of 0.84. This relationship between shear wave velocity and corrected SPT N values correlates well with the Japan Road Association equations.

Probabilistic evaluation of seismic soil liquefaction potential based on SPT data

The performance-based liquefaction potential analysis was carried out in the present study to estimate the liquefaction return period for Bangalore, India, through a probabilistic approach. In this approach, the entire range of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and earthquake magnitudes was used in the evaluation of liquefaction return period. The seismic hazard analysis for the study area was done using probabilistic approach to evaluate the peak horizontal acceleration at bed rock level. Based on the results of the multichannel analysis of surface wave, it was found that the study area belonged to site class D. The PGA values for the study area were evaluated for site class D by considering the local site effects. The soil resistance for the study area was characterized using the standard penetration test (SPT) values obtained from 450 boreholes. These SPT data along with the PGA values obtained from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis were used to evaluate the liquefaction return period for the study area. The contour plot showing the spatial variation of factor of safety against liquefaction and the corrected SPT values required for preventing liquefaction for a return period of 475 years at depths of 3 and 6 m are presented in this paper. The entire process of liquefaction potential evaluation, starting from collection of earthquake data, identifying the seismic sources, evaluation of seismic hazard and the assessment of liquefaction return period were carried out, and the entire analysis was done based on the probabilistic approach.

Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAN) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Machine learning modelling for predicting soil liquefaction susceptibility

This study describes two machine learning techniques applied to predict liquefaction susceptibility of soil based on the standard penetration test (SPT) data from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The first machine learning technique which uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on multi-layer perceptions (MLP) that are trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm. The second machine learning technique uses the Support Vector machine (SVM) that is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning theory, uses classification technique. ANN and SVM have been developed to predict liquefaction susceptibility using corrected SPT (N-1)(60)] and cyclic stress ratio (CSR). Further, an attempt has been made to simplify the models, requiring only the two parameters (N-1)(60) and peck ground acceleration (a(max)/g)], for the prediction of liquefaction susceptibility. The developed ANN and SVM models have also been applied to different case histories available globally. The paper also highlights the capability of the SVM over the ANN models.

Advances in storage batteries

Over the years, new power requirements for telecommunication, space, automotive and traction applications have arisen which need to be met. Although lead-acid and nickel-cadmium storage batteries continue to be the work horses with limited advances, associated environmental hazards and recycling are still the issues to be resolved. As a result, lead-acid and nickel-cadmium storage batteries have declined in importance whilst nickel-metal hydride and lithium secondary batteries with superior performances have shown greater acceptability in newer applications. These developments are reflected in this article.

Reversibility of Mg/Mg2+ couple in a gel polymer electrolyte

Investigations on solid state rechargeable magnesium batteries are considered important similar to lithium batteries. In view of negligible hazards and less reactivity of the magnesium, in comparison with lithium, studies on rechargeable magnesium batteries are expected to have a wide scope in future. Solid polymer electrolytes, which conduct Mg2+ ions and reversibility of a Mg/Mg2+ couple are essential components of the studies. In the present investigations, the existence of reversibility of a Mg/Mg2+ couple in a gel polymer electrolyte (GPE) medium is established for the first time in literature. Results obtained by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and cyclic voltammetry on Mg/GPE/Mg, SS/GPE/SS symmetrical cells show evidence for the reversibility. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A checking method for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment: case studies on three cities

The conventional Cornell's source-based approach of probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment (PSHA) has been employed all around the world, whilst many studies often rely on the use of computer packages such as FRISK (McGuire FRISK-a computer program for seismic risk analysis. Open-File Report 78-1007, United States Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Washington 1978) and SEISRISK III (Bender and Perkins SEISRISK III-a computer program for seismic hazard estimation, Bulletin 1772. United States Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Washington 1987). A ``black-box'' syndrome may be resulted if the user of the software does not have another simple and robust PSHA method that can be used to make comparisons. An alternative method for PSHA, namely direct amplitude-based (DAB) approach, has been developed as a heuristic and efficient method enabling users to undertake their own sanity checks on outputs from computer packages. This paper experiments the application of the DAB approach for three cities in China, Iran, and India, respectively, and compares with documented results computed by the source-based approach. Several insights regarding the procedure of conducting PSHA have also been obtained, which could be useful for future seismic-hazard studies.

Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold's SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold's and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold's SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold's SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold's SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.

Environment Education for Ecosystem Conservation

Conservation of natural resources through sustainable ecosystem management and development is the key to our secured future. The management of ecosystem involves inventorying and monitoring, and applying integrated technologies, methodologies and interdisciplinary approaches for its conservation. Hence, now it is even more critical than ever before for the humans to be environmentally literate. To realise this vision, both ecological and environmental education must become a fundamental part of the education system at all levels of education. Currently, it is even more critical than ever before for the humankind as a whole to have a clear understanding of environmental concerns and to follow sustainable development practices. The degradation of our environment is linked to continuing problems of pollution, loss of forest, solid waste disposal, and issues related to economic productivity and national as well as ecological security. Environmental management has gained momentum in the recent years with the initiatives focussing on managing environmental hazards and preventing possible disasters. Environmental issues make better sense, when one can understand them in the context of one’s own cognitive sphere. Environmental education focusing on real-world contexts and issues often begins close to home, encouraging learners to understand and forge connections with their immediate surroundings. The awareness, knowledge, and skills needed for these local connections and understandings provide a base for moving out into larger systems, broader issues, and a more sophisticated comprehension of causes, connections, and consequences. Environmental Education Programme at CES in collaboration with Karnataka Environment Research Foundation (KERF) referred as ‘Know your Ecosystem’ focuses on the importance of investigating the ecosystems within the context of human influences, incorporating an examination of ecology, economics, culture, political structure, and social equity as well as natural processes and systems. The ultimate goal of environment education is to develop an environmentally literate public. It needs to address the connection between our conception and practice of education and our relationship as human cultures to life-sustaining ecological systems. For each environmental issue there are many perspectives and much uncertainty. Environmental education cultivates the ability to recognise uncertainty, envision alternative scenarios, and adapt to changing conditions and information. These knowledge, skills, and mindset translate into a citizenry who is better equipped to address its common problems and take advantage of opportunities, whether environmental concerns are involved or not.

Site Characterization of Bangalore using Geophysical Method

A number of geophysical methods have been proposed for near-surface site characterization and measurement of shear wave velocity by using a great variety of testing configurations, processing techniques,and inversion algorithms. In particular, two widely-used techniques are SASW (Spectral Analysis of SurfaceWaves) and MASW (Multichannel Analysis of SurfaceWaves). MASW is increasingly being applied to earthquake geotechnical engineering for the local site characterization, microzonation and site response studies.A MASW is a geophysical method, which generates a shear-wave velocity (Vs) profile (i.e., Vs versus depth)by analyzing Raleigh-type surface waves on a multichannel record. MASW system consisting of 24 channels Geode seismograph with 24 geophones of 4.5 Hz frequency have been used in this investigation. For the site characterization program, the MASW field experiments consisting of 58 one-dimensional shear wave velocity tests and 20 two-dimensional shear wave tests have been carried out. The survey points have been selected in such a way that the results supposedly represent the whole metropolitan Bangalore having an area of 220 km2.The average shear wave velocity of Bangalore soils have been evaluated for depths of 5m, 10m, 15m, 20m, 25m and 30 m. The subsoil site classification has been made for seismic local site effect evaluation based on average shear wave velocity of 30m depth (Vs30) of sites using National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and International Building Code (IBC) classification. Soil average shearwave velocity estimated based on overburden thickness from the borehole information is also presented. Mapping clearly indicates that the depth of soil obtained from MASW is closely matching with the soil layers in bore logs. Among total 55 locations of MASW survey carried out, 34 locations were very close to the SPT borehole locations and these are used to generate correlation between Vs and corrected “N” values. The SPT field “N” values are corrected by applying the NEHRP recommended corrections.

Landslide susceptibility mapping in the downstream region of Sharavathi river basin, Central Western Ghats

Landslides are hazards encountered during monsoon in undulating terrains of Western Ghats causing geomorphic make over of earth surface resulting in significant damages to life and property. An attempt is made in this paper to identify landslides susceptibility regions in the Sharavathi river basin downstream using frequency ratio method based on the field investigations during July- November 2007. In this regard, base layers of spatial data such as topography, land cover, geology and soil were considered. This is supplemented with the field investigations of landslides. Factors that influence landslide were extracted from the spatial database. The probabilistic model -frequency ratio is computed based on these factors. Landslide susceptibility indices were computed and grouped into five classes. Validation of LHS, showed an accuracy of 89% as 25 of the 28 regions tallied with the field condition of highly vulnerable landslide regions. The landslide susceptible map generated for the downstream would be useful for the district officials to implement appropriate mitigation measures to reduce hazards.