Simulation of ENSO-Related Surface Winds in the Tropical Pacific by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Forced by Observed Sea Surface Temperatures

The authors present the simulation of the tropical Pacific surface wind variability by a low-resolution (R15 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels) version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Maryland, general circulation model (GCM) when forced by observed global sea surface temperature. The authors have examined the monthly mean surface winds acid precipitation simulated by the model that was integrated from January 1979 to March 1992. Analyses of the climatological annual cycle and interannual variability over the Pacific are presented. The annual means of the simulated zonal and meridional winds agree well with observations. The only appreciable difference is in the region of strong trade winds where the simulated zonal winds are about 15%-20% weaker than observed, The amplitude of the annual harmonics are weaker than observed over the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone regions. The amplitudes of the interannual variation of the simulated zonal and meridional winds are close to those of the observed variation. The first few dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the simulated, as well as the observed, monthly mean winds are found to contain a targe amount of high-frequency intraseasonal variations, While the statistical properties of the high-frequency modes, such as their amplitude and geographical locations, agree with observations, their detailed time evolution does not. When the data are subjected to a 5-month running-mean filter, the first two dominant EOFs of the simulated winds representing the low-frequency EI Nino-Southern Oscillation fluctuations compare quite well with observations. However, the location of the center of the westerly anomalies associated with the warm episodes is simulated about 15 degrees west of the observed locations. The model simulates well the progress of the westerly anomalies toward the eastern Pacific during the evolution of a warm event. The simulated equatorial wind anomalies are comparable in magnitude to the observed anomalies. An intercomparison of the simulation of the interannual variability by a few other GCMs with comparable resolution is also presented. The success in simulation of the large-scale low-frequency part of the tropical surface winds by the atmospheric GCM seems to be related to the model's ability to simulate the large-scale low-frequency part of the precipitation. Good correspondence between the simulated precipitation and the highly reflective cloud anomalies is seen in the first two EOFs of the 5-month running means. Moreover, the strong correlation found between the simulated precipitation and the simulated winds in the first two principal components indicates the primary role of model precipitation in driving the surface winds. The surface winds simulated by a linear model forced by the GCM-simulated precipitation show good resemblance to the GCM-simulated winds in the equatorial region. This result supports the recent findings that the large-scale part of the tropical surface winds is primarily linear.

Mechanisms of formation of the Arabian Sea mini warm pool in a high-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model

An Ocean General Circulation Model of the Indian Ocean with high horizontal (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees) and vertical (40 levels) resolutions is used to study the dynamics and thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea mini warm pool (ASMWP), the warmest region in the northern Indian Ocean during January-April. The model simulates the seasonal cycle of temperature, salinity and currents as well as the winter time temperature inversions in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) quite realistically with climatological forcing. An experiment which maintained uniform salinity of 35 psu over the entire model domain reproduces the ASMWP similar to the control run with realistic salinity and this is contrary to the existing theories that stratification caused by the intrusion of low-salinity water from the Bay of Bengal into the SEAS is crucial for the formation of ASMWP. The contribution from temperature inversions to the warming of the SEAS is found to be negligible. Experiments with modified atmospheric forcing over the SEAS show that the low latent heat loss over the SEAS compared to the surroundings, resulting from the low winds due to the orographic effect of Western Ghats, plays an important role in setting up the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution over the SEAS during November March. During March-May, the SEAS responds quickly to the air-sea fluxes and the peak SST during April-May is independent of the SST evolution during previous months. The SEAS behaves as a low wind, heat-dominated regime during November-May and, therefore, the formation and maintenance of the ASMWP is not dependent on the near surface stratification.

Indian Ocean dipole mode events in an ocean general circulation model

The evolution of the dipole mode (DM) events in the Indian Ocean is examined using an ocean model that is driven by the NCEP fluxes for the period 1975-1998. The positive DM events during 1997, 1994 and 1982 and negative DM events during 1996 and 1984-1985 are captured by the model and it reproduces both the surface and subsurface features associated with these events. In its positive phase, the DM is characterized by warmer than normal SST in the western Indian Ocean and cooler than normal SST in the eastern Indian Ocean. The DM events are accompanied by easterly wind anomalies along the equatorial Indian Ocean and upwelling-favorable alongshore wind anomalies along the coast of Sumatra. The Wyrtki jets are weak during positive DM events, and the thermocline is shallower than normal in the eastern Indian Ocean and deeper in the west. This anomaly pattern reverses during negative DM events. During the positive phase of the DM easterly wind anomalies excite an upwelling equatorial Kelvin wave. This Kelvin wave reflects from the eastern boundary as an upwelling Rossby wave which propagates westward across the equatorial Indian Ocean. The anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean weaken after the Rossby wave passes. A similar process excites a downwelling Rossby wave during the negative phase. This Rossby wave is much weaker but wind forcing in the central equatorial Indian Ocean amplifies the downwelling and increases its westward phase speed. This Rossby wave initiates the deepening of the thermocline in the western Indian Ocean during the following positive phase of the DM. Rossby wave generated in the southern tropical Indian Ocean by Ekman pumping contributes to this warming. Concurrently, the temperature equation of the model shows upwelling and downwelling to be the most important mechanism during both positive events of 1994 and 1997. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of latent heating on the location and strength of the tropical easterly jet

The tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is a prominent atmospheric circulation feature observed during the Asian summer monsoon. It is generally assumed that sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau directly influences the location of the TEJ. However, other studies have suggested the importance of latent heating in determining the jet location. In this paper, the relative importance of latent heating on the maintenance of the TEJ is explored through simulations with a general circulation model. The simulation of the TEJ by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1 is discussed in detail. These simulations showed that the location of the TEJ is well correlated with the location of the precipitation. Significant zonal shifts in the location of the precipitation resulted in similar shifts in the zonal location of the TEJ. These zonal shifts had minimal effect on the large-scale structure of the jet. Further, provided that precipitation patterns were relatively unchanged, orography did not directly impact the location of the TEJ. These changes were robust even with changes in the cumulus parameterization. This suggests the potential important role of latent heating in determining the location and structure of the TEJ. These results were used to explain the significant differences in the zonal location of the TEJ in the years 1988 and 2002. To understand the contribution of the latitudinal location of latent heating on the strength of the TEJ, aqua-planet simulations were carried out. It has been shown that for similar amounts of net latent heating, the jet is stronger when heating is in the higher tropical latitudes. This may partly explain the reason for the jet to be very strong during the JJA monsoon season.

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model

We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.

Dynamics of ''internal'' interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM

1] The poor predictability of the Indian summer monsoon ( ISM) appears to be due to the fact that a large fraction of interannual variability (IAV) is governed by unpredictable "internal'' low frequency variations. Mechanisms responsible for the internal IAV of the monsoon have not been clearly identified. Here, an attempt has been made to gain insight regarding the origin of internal IAV of the seasonal ( June - September, JJAS) mean rainfall from "internal'' IAV of the ISM simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) driven by fixed annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST). The underlying hypothesis that monsoon ISOs are responsible for internal IAV of the ISM is tested. The spatial and temporal characteristics of simulated summer intraseasonal oscillations ( ISOs) are found to be in good agreement with those observed. A long integration with the AGCM forced with observed SST, shows that ISO activity over the Asian monsoon region is not modulated by the observed SST variations. The internal IAV of ISM, therefore, appears to be decoupled from external IAV. Hence, insight gained from this study may be useful in understanding the observed internal IAV of ISM. The spatial structure of the ISOs has a significant projection on the spatial structure of the seasonal mean and a common spatial mode governs both intraseasonal and interannual variability. Statistical average of ISO anomalies over the season ( seasonal ISO bias) strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean. It is shown that interannual anomalies of seasonal mean are closely related to the seasonal mean of intraseasonal anomalies and explain about 50% of the IAV of the seasonal mean. The seasonal mean ISO bias arises partly due to the broad-band nature of the ISO spectrum allowing the time series to be aperiodic over the season and partly due to a non-linear process where the amplitude of ISO activity is proportional to the seasonal bias of ISO anomalies. The later relation is a manifestation of the binomial character of rainfall time series. The remaining 50% of the IAV may arise due to land-surface processes, interaction between high frequency variability and ISOs, etc.

Vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere during active and weak phases of convection over the north Bay of Bengal: Observation and model results

Owing to the lack of atmospheric vertical profile data with sufficient accuracy and vertical resolution, the response of the deep atmosphere to passage of monsoon systems over the Bay of Bengal. had not been satisfactorily elucidated. Under the Indian Climate Research Programme, a special observational programme called 'Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment' (BOBMEX), was conducted during July-August 1999. The present study is based on the high-resolution radiosondes launched during BOBMEX in the north Bay. Clear changes in the vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere between active and weak phases of convection have been observed. The atmosphere cooled below 6 km height and became warmer between 6 and 13 km height. The warmest layer was located between 8 and 10 km height, and the coldest layer was found just below 5 km height. The largest fluctuations in the humidity field occurred in the mid-troposphere. The observed changes between active and weak phases of convection are compared with the results from an atmospheric general circulation model, which is similar to that used at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, New Delhi. The model is not able to capture realistically some important features of the temperature and humidity profiles in the lower troposphere and in the boundary layer during the active and weak spells.

Impact of African orography and the Indian summer monsoon on the low-level Somali jet

The low-level jet (LLJ) over the Indian region, which is most prominent during the monsoon (June-September) season, has been studied with a general circulation model (GCM). The role of African orography in modulating this jet is the focus of this article. The presence o African orography intensifies the cross-equatorial flow. Contrary to previous modelling Studies we find that cross-equatorial flow occurs even in the absence of African orography, though this flow is muc weaker even when the Indian monsoon rainfall is high. However, the location of the meridional jet near the equator in the Somali region is linked to the Indian monsoon rainfall rather than to the land-sea contrast over Somalia. Also, the presence of African orography, and not the strength of the Indian monsoon, controls the vertical extent of the equatorial meridional wind. In an aqua-planet simulation, the cross-equatorial flow occurs about 30 to the west of the rainfall maximum. Thus, the longitudinal location of the equatorial Somali jet depends upon the occurrence of monsoon heating, but the vertical structure of the jet is on account of the western boundary current in the atmosphere due to the East African highlands under the influence of monsoonal heat source.

Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

Mahanadi streamflow: climate change impact assessment and adaptive strategies

Impacts of climate change on hydrology are assessed by downscaling large scale general circulation model (GCM) outputs of climate variables to local scale hydrologic variables. This modelling approach is characterized by uncertainties resulting from the use of different models, different scenarios, etc. Modelling uncertainty in climate change impact assessment includes assigning weights to GCMs and scenarios, based on their performances, and providing weighted mean projection for the future. This projection is further used for water resources planning and adaptation to combat the adverse impacts of climate change. The present article summarizes the recent published work of the authors on uncertainty modelling and development of adaptation strategies to climate change for the Mahanadi river in India.

Impact of moisture variations on the circulation of the south-west monsoon

The impact of moisture anomalies on the circulation of the south-west Indian monsoon has been studied with a general circulation model. Newtonian relaxation is adopted to subject the model atmosphere under sustained moisture anomalies. The impact of negative anomalies of moisture was seen as a divergent circulation anomaly, while the positive anomaly was a stronger convergent anomaly. Although the humidity fields display a resilient behaviour, and relax back to normal patterns 1–2 days after the forcing terms in humidity are withdrawn, the circulation anomalies created by the moisture variation keeps growing. A feedback between positive moisture anomalies and low level convergence exists, which is terminated in the absence of external forcings.

Modeling Indian Ocean circulation: Bay of Bengal fresh water plume and the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool

The Indian subcontinent divides the north Indian Ocean into two tropical basins, namely the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The Arabian Sea has high salinity whereas the salinity of the Bay of Bengal is much lower due to the contrast in freshwater forcing of the two basins. The freshwater received by the Bay in large amounts during the summer monsoon through river discharge is flushed out annually by ocean circulation. After the withdrawal of the summer monsoon, the Ganga – Brahmaputra river plume flows first along the Indian coast and then around Sri Lanka into the Arabian Sea creating a low salinity pool in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS). In the same region, during the pre-monsoon months of February – April, a warm pool, known as the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP), which is distinctly warmer than the rest of the Indian Ocean, takes shape. In fact, this is the warmest region in the world oceans during this period. Simulation of the river plume and its movement as well as its implications to thermodynamics has been a challenging problem for models of Indian Ocean. Here we address these issues using an ocean general circulation model – first we show that the model is capable of reproducing fresh plumes in the Bay of Bengal as well as its movement and then we use the model to determine the processes that lead to formation of the ASMWP. Hydrographic observations from the western Bay of Bengal have shown the presence of a fresh plume along the northern part of the Indian coast during summer monsoon. The Indian Ocean model when forced by realistic winds and climatological river discharge reproduces the fresh plume with reasonable accuracy. The fresh plume does not advect along the Indian coast until the end of summer monsoon. The North Bay Monsoon Current, which flows eastward in the northern Bay, separates the low salinity water from the more saline southern parts of the bay and thus plays an important role in the fresh water budget of the Bay of Bengal. The model also reproduces the surge of the fresh-plume along the Indian coast, into the Arabian Sea during northeast monsoon. Mechanisms that lead to the formation of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool are investigated using several numerical experiments. Contrary to the existing theories, we find that salinity effects are not necessary for the formation of the ASMWP. The orographic effects of the Sahyadris (Western Ghats) and resulting reduction in wind speed leads to the formation of the ASMWP. During November – April, the SEAS behave as a low-wind heatdominated regime where the evolution of sea surface temperature is solely determined by atmospheric forcing. In such regions the evolution of surface layer temperature is not dependent on the characteristics of the subsurface ocean such as the barrier layer and temperature inversion.

On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme

The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.

Climate change induced risk in water quality control problems

A modeling framework is presented in this paper, integrating hydrologic scenarios projected from a General Circulation Model (GCM) with a water quality simulation model to quantify the future expected risk. Statistical downscaling with a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is carried out to develop the future scenarios of hydro-climate variables starting with simulations provided by a GCM. A Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) is used to quantify the risk of Low Water Quality (LWQ) corresponding to a threshold quality level, by considering the streamflow and water temperature as explanatory variables. An Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) presented in an earlier study is then used to develop adaptive policies to address the projected water quality risks. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated with the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river in India. The results showed that the projected changes in the hydro-climate variables tend to diminish DO levels, thus increasing the future risk levels of LWQ. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model Pseudoconvex Domains and Bumping

The Levi geometry at weakly pseudoconvex boundary points of domains in C-n, n >= 3, is sufficiently complicated that there are no universal model domains with which to compare a general domain. Good models may be constructed by bumping outward a pseudoconvex, finite- type Omega subset of C-3 in such a way that: (i) pseudoconvexity is preserved, (ii) the (locally) larger domain has a simpler defining function, and (iii) the lowest possible orders of contact of the bumped domain with partial derivative Omega, at the site of the bumping, are realized. When Omega subset of C-n, n >= 3, it is, in general, hard to meet the last two requirements. Such well-controlled bumping is possible when Omega is h-extendible/semiregular. We examine a family of domains in C-3 that is strictly larger than the family of h-extendible/semiregular domains and construct explicit models for these domains by bumping.