Bivariate frequency analysis of floods using a diffusion based kernel density estimator

Recent focus of flood frequency analysis (FFA) studies has been on development of methods to model joint distributions of variables such as peak flow, volume, and duration that characterize a flood event, as comprehensive knowledge of flood event is often necessary in hydrological applications. Diffusion process based adaptive kernel (D-kernel) is suggested in this paper for this purpose. It is data driven, flexible and unlike most kernel density estimators, always yields a bona fide probability density function. It overcomes shortcomings associated with the use of conventional kernel density estimators in FFA, such as boundary leakage problem and normal reference rule. The potential of the D-kernel is demonstrated by application to synthetic samples of various sizes drawn from known unimodal and bimodal populations, and five typical peak flow records from different parts of the world. It is shown to be effective when compared to conventional Gaussian kernel and the best of seven commonly used copulas (Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank, Clayton, Joe, Normal, Plackett, and Student's T) in estimating joint distribution of peak flow characteristics and extrapolating beyond historical maxima. Selection of optimum number of bins is found to be critical in modeling with D-kernel.

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis using Two-level Clustering Approach

Clustering techniques are used in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) to partition watersheds into natural groups or regions with similar hydrologic responses. The linear Kohonen's self‐organizing feature map (SOFM) has been applied as a clustering technique for RFFA in several recent studies. However, it is seldom possible to interpret clusters from the output of an SOFM, irrespective of its size and dimensionality. In this study, we demonstrate that SOFMs may, however, serve as a useful precursor to clustering algorithms. We present a two‐level. SOFM‐based clustering approach to form regions for FFA. In the first level, the SOFM is used to form a two‐dimensional feature map. In the second level, the output nodes of SOFM are clustered using Fuzzy c‐means algorithm to form regions. The optimal number of regions is based on fuzzy cluster validation measures. Effectiveness of the proposed approach in forming homogeneous regions for FFA is illustrated through application to data from watersheds in Indiana, USA. Results show that the performance of the proposed approach to form regions is better than that based on classical SOFM.

Time-frequency analysis of human motion during rhythmic exercises

Biomechanical signals due to human movements during exercise are represented in time-frequency domain using Wigner Distribution Function (WDF). Analysis based on WDF reveals instantaneous spectral and power changes during a rhythmic exercise. Investigations were carried out on 11 healthy subjects who performed 5 cycles of sun salutation, with a body-mounted Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) as a motion sensor. Variance of Instantaneous Frequency (I.F) and Instantaneous Power (I.P) for performance analysis of the subject is estimated using one-way ANOVA model. Results reveal that joint Time-Frequency analysis of biomechanical signals during motion facilitates a better understanding of grace and consistency during rhythmic exercise.

Formulation of a mathematical approach to regional frequency analysis

Estimation of design quantiles of hydrometeorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on index-flood approach and L-moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real-world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach (PA) in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the PA outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.

Regional flood frequency analysis using kernel- based fuzzy clustering approach

Regionalization approaches are widely used in water resources engineering to identify hydrologically homogeneous groups of watersheds that are referred to as regions. Pooled information from sites (depicting watersheds) in a region forms the basis to estimate quantiles associated with hydrological extreme events at ungauged/sparsely gauged sites in the region. Conventional regionalization approaches can be effective when watersheds (data points) corresponding to different regions can be separated using straight lines or linear planes in the space of watershed related attributes. In this paper, a kernel-based Fuzzy c-means (KFCM) clustering approach is presented for use in situations where such linear separation of regions cannot be accomplished. The approach uses kernel-based functions to map the data points from the attribute space to a higher-dimensional space where they can be separated into regions by linear planes. A procedure to determine optimal number of regions with the KFCM approach is suggested. Further, formulations to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites with the approach are developed. Effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in United States. Comparison of results with those based on conventional Fuzzy c-means clustering, Region-of-influence approach and a prior study indicate that KFCM approach outperforms the other approaches in forming regions that are closer to being statistically homogeneous and in estimating flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Key Points Kernel-based regionalization approach is presented for flood frequency analysis Kernel procedure to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites is developed A set of fuzzy regions is delineated in Ohio, USA

Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A recursive multi-scaling approach to regional flood frequency analysis

Scaling approaches are widely used by hydrologists for Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) of floods at ungauged/sparsely gauged site(s) in river basins. This paper proposes a Recursive Multi-scaling (RMS) approach to RFA that overcomes limitations of conventional simple- and multi-scaling approaches. The approach involves identification of a separate set of attributes corresponding to each of the sites (being considered in the study area/region) in a recursive manner according to their importance, and utilizing those attributes to construct effective regional regression relationships to estimate statistical raw moments (SMs) of peak flows. The SMs are then utilized to arrive at parameters of flood frequency distribution and quantile estimate(s) corresponding to target return period(s). Effectiveness of the RMS approach in arriving at flood quantile estimates for ungauged sites is demonstrated through leave-one-out cross-validation experiment on watersheds in Indiana State, USA. Results indicate that the approach outperforms index-flood based Region-of-Influence approach, simple- and multi-scaling approaches and a multiple linear regression method. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Index-Flood Approach Related Regional Frequency Analysis Procedures

Index-flood related regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures are in use by hydrologists to estimate design quantiles of hydrological extreme events at data sparse/ungauged locations in river basins. There is a dearth of attempts to establish which among those procedures is better for RFA in the L-moment framework. This paper evaluates the performance of the conventional index flood (CIF), the logarithmic index flood (LIF), and two variants of the population index flood (PIF) procedures in estimating flood quantiles for ungauged locations by Monte Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in Indiana in the U.S. To evaluate the PIF procedure, L-moment formulations are developed for implementing the procedure in situations where the regional frequency distribution (RFD) is the generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), generalized normal (GNO) or Pearson type III (PE3), as those formulations are unavailable. Results indicate that one of the variants of the PIF procedure, which utilizes the regional information on the first two L-moments is more effective than the CIF and LIF procedures. The improvement in quantile estimation using the variant of PIF procedure as compared with the CIF procedure is significant when the RFD is a generalized extreme value, GLO, GNO, or PE3, and marginal when it is GPA. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

On the sensitivity of elastic waves due to structural damages:Time-frequency based indexing method

Time-frequency analysis of various simulated and experimental signals due to elastic wave scattering from damage are performed using wavelet transform (WT) and Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) and their performances are compared in context of quantifying the damages. Spectral finite element method is employed for numerical simulation of wave scattering. An analytical study is carried out to study the effects of higher-order damage parameters on the reflected wave from a damage. Based on this study, error bounds are computed for the signals in the spectral and also on the time-frequency domains. It is shown how such an error bound can provide all estimate of error in the modelling of wave propagation in structure with damage. Measures of damage based on WT and HHT is derived to quantify the damage information hidden in the signal. The aim of this study is to obtain detailed insights into the problem of (1) identifying localised damages (2) dispersion of multifrequency non-stationary signals after they interact with various types of damage and (3) quantifying the damages. Sensitivity analysis of the signal due to scattered wave based on time-frequency representation helps to correlate the variation of damage index measures with respect to the damage parameters like damage size and material degradation factors.

Optimum design of a helicopter rotor for low vibration using aeroelastic analysis and response surface methods

An aeroelastic analysis based on finite elements in space and time is used to model the helicopter rotor in forward flight. The rotor blade is represented as an elastic cantilever beam undergoing flap and lag bending, elastic torsion and axial deformations. The objective of the improved design is to reduce vibratory loads at the rotor hub that are the main source of helicopter vibration. Constraints are imposed on aeroelastic stability, and move limits are imposed on the blade elastic stiffness design variables. Using the aeroelastic analysis, response surface approximations are constructed for the objective function (vibratory hub loads). It is found that second order polynomial response surfaces constructed using the central composite design of the theory of design of experiments adequately represents the aeroelastic model in the vicinity of the baseline design. Optimization results show a reduction in the objective function of about 30 per cent. A key accomplishment of this paper is the decoupling of the analysis problem and the optimization problems using response surface methods, which should encourage the use of optimization methods by the helicopter industry. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compiler-Directed Frequency and Voltage Scaling for a Multiple Clock Domain

Multiple Clock Domain processors provide an attractive solution to the increasingly challenging problems of clock distribution and power dissipation. They allow their chips to be partitioned into different clock domains, and each domain’s frequency (voltage) to be independently configured. This flexibility adds new dimensions to the Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling problem, while providing better scope for saving energy and meeting performance demands. In this paper, we propose a compiler directed approach for MCD-DVFS. We build a formal petri net based program performance model, parameterized by settings of microarchitectural components and resource configurations, and integrate it with our compiler passes for frequency selection.Our model estimates the performance impact of a frequency setting, unlike the existing best techniques which rely on weaker indicators of domain performance such as queue occupancies(used by online methods) and slack manifestation for a particular frequency setting (software based methods).We evaluate our method with subsets of SPECFP2000,Mediabench and Mibench benchmarks. Our mean energy savings is 60.39% (versus 33.91% of the best software technique)in a memory constrained system for cache miss dominated benchmarks, and we meet the performance demands.Our ED2 improves by 22.11% (versus 18.34%) for other benchmarks. For a CPU with restricted frequency settings, our energy consumption is within 4.69% of the optimal.

On Selection of Features for Regional Hydrologic Studies

Feature selection is an important first step in regional hydrologic studies (RHYS). Over the past few decades, advances in data collection facilities have resulted in development of data archives on a variety of hydro-meteorological variables that may be used as features in RHYS. Currently there are no established procedures for selecting features from such archives. Therefore, hydrologists often use subjective methods to arrive at a set of features. This may lead to misleading results. To alleviate this problem, a probabilistic clustering method for regionalization is presented to determine appropriate features from the available dataset. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by application to regionalization of watersheds in conterminous United States for low flow frequency analysis. Plausible homogeneous regions that are formed by using the proposed clustering method are compared with those from conventional methods of regionalization using L-moment based homogeneity tests. Results show that the proposed methodology is promising for RHYS.

Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of nonstationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time reversal technique for health monitoring of metallic structure using Lamb waves

Time reversal active sensing using Lamb waves is investigated for health monitoring of a metallic structure. Experiments were conducted on an aluminum plate to study the time reversal behavior of A(0) and S-0 Lamb wave modes under narrow band and broad band pulse excitation. Damage in the form of a notch was introduced in the plate to study the changes in the characteristics of the time reversed Lamb wave modes experimentally. Time-frequency analysis of the time reversed signal was carried out to extract the damage information. A measure of damage based on wavelet transform was derived to quantify the hidden damage information in the time reversed signal. It has been shown that time reversal can be used to achieve temporal recompression of Lamb waves under broadband signal excitation. Further, the broad band excitation can also improve the resolution of the technique in detecting closely located defects. This is demonstrated by picking up the reflection of waves from the edge of the plate, from a defect close to the edge of the plate and from defects located near to each other. This study shows the effectiveness of Lamb wave time reversal for temporal recompression of dispersive Lamb waves for damage detection in health monitoring applications. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.