A Method for Evaluation of Product Lifecycle Alternatives under Uncertainty

In each stage of product development, we need to take decisions, by evaluating multiple product alternatives based on multiple criteria. Classical evaluation methods like weighted objectives method assumes certainty about information available during product development. However, designers often must evaluate under uncertainty. Often the likely performance, cost or environmental impacts of a product proposal could be estimated only with certain confidence, which may vary from one proposal to another. In such situations, the classical approaches to evaluation can give misleading results. There is a need for a method that can aid in decision making by supporting quantitative comparison of alternatives to identify the most promising alternative, under uncertain information about the alternatives. A method called confidence weighted objectives method is developed to compare the whole life cycle of product proposals using multiple evaluation criteria under various levels of uncertainty with non crisp values. It estimates the overall worth of proposal and confidence on the estimate, enabling deferment of decision making when decisions cannot be made using current information available.

Evaluation of bentonite and sand mixtures as liners

Compacted clay liners are widely used for waste contaminant facilities because of their low cost, large leachate attenuation capacity and resistance to damage and puncture. Commonly used bentonite possess many limitations such as high swelling and shrinkage potential, sensitivity to waste fluid characteristics etc. The paper proposes the use of bentonite-sand mixture containing optimal clay content as liner material. It has been brought out, based on detailed geotechnical investigations, that a mixture containing only about 20 to 39% of bentonite is more suited than the clay alone and they possess.

Fuzzy data envelopment analysis for performance evaluation of an irrigation system

Sixteen irrigation subsystems of the Mahi Bajaj Sagar Project, Rajasthan, India, are evaluated and selection of the most suitable/best is made using data envelopment analysis (DEA) in both deterministic and fuzzy environments. Seven performance-related indicators, namely, land development works (LDW), timely supply of inputs (TSI), conjunctive use of water resources (CUW), participation of farmers (PF), environmental conservation (EC), economic impact (EI) and crop productivity (CPR) are considered. Of the seven, LDW, TSI, CUW, PF and EC are considered inputs, whereas CPR and EI are considered outputs for DEA modelling purposes. Spearman rank correlation coefficient values are also computed for various scenarios. It is concluded that DEA in both deterministic and fuzzy environments is useful for the present problem. However, the outcome of fuzzy DEA may be explored for further analysis due to its simple, effective data and discrimination handling procedure. It is inferred that the present study can be explored for similar situations with suitable modifications.

Microscopic description of the evolution of the local structure and an evaluation of the chemical pressure concept in a solid solution

Extended x-ray absorption fine-structure studies have been performed at the Zn K and Cd K edges for a series of solid solutions of wurtzite Zn1-xCdxS samples with x = 0.0, 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0, where the lattice parameter as a function of x evolves according to the well-known Vegard's law. In conjunction with extensive, large-scale first-principles electronic structure calculations with full geometry optimizations, these results establish that the percentage variation in the nearest-neighbor bond distances are lower by nearly an order of magnitude compared to what would be expected on the basis of lattice parameter variation, seriously undermining the chemical pressure concept. With experimental results that allow us to probe up to the third coordination shell distances, we provide a direct description of how the local structure, apparently inconsistent with the global structure, evolves very rapidly with interatomic distances to become consistent with it. We show that the basic features of this structural evolution with the composition can be visualized with nearly invariant Zn-S-4 and Cd-S-4 tetrahedral units retaining their structural integrity, while the tilts between these tetrahedral building blocks change with composition to conform to the changing lattice parameters according to the Vegard's law within a relatively short length scale. These results underline the limits of applicability of the chemical pressure concept that has been a favored tool of experimentalists to control physical properties of a large variety of condensed matter systems.

Evaluation of TRMM PR Sampling Error Over a Subtropical Basin Using Bootstrap Technique

Quantitative use of satellite-derived rainfall products for various scientific applications often requires them to be accompanied with an error estimate. Rainfall estimates inferred from low earth orbiting satellites like the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) will be subjected to sampling errors of nonnegligible proportions owing to the narrow swath of satellite sensors coupled with a lack of continuous coverage due to infrequent satellite visits. The authors investigate sampling uncertainty of seasonal rainfall estimates from the active sensor of TRMM, namely, Precipitation Radar (PR), based on 11 years of PR 2A25 data product over the Indian subcontinent. In this paper, a statistical bootstrap technique is investigated to estimate the relative sampling errors using the PR data themselves. Results verify power law scaling characteristics of relative sampling errors with respect to space-time scale of measurement. Sampling uncertainty estimates for mean seasonal rainfall were found to exhibit seasonal variations. To give a practical example of the implications of the bootstrap technique, PR relative sampling errors over a subtropical river basin of Mahanadi, India, are examined. Results reveal that the bootstrap technique incurs relative sampling errors < 33% (for the 2 degrees grid), < 36% (for the 1 degrees grid), < 45% (for the 0.5 degrees grid), and < 57% (for the 0.25 degrees grid). With respect to rainfall type, overall sampling uncertainty was found to be dominated by sampling uncertainty due to stratiform rainfall over the basin. The study compares resulting error estimates to those obtained from latin hypercube sampling. Based on this study, the authors conclude that the bootstrap approach can be successfully used for ascertaining relative sampling errors offered by TRMM-like satellites over gauged or ungauged basins lacking in situ validation data. This technique has wider implications for decision making before incorporating microwave orbital data products in basin-scale hydrologic modeling.

Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

Performance Evaluation of Underground Mine Communication and Monitoring Devices: Case Studies

Communication and environmental monitoring play a major role in underground mining both from production and safety point of view. However, underground mining communication as well as monitoring devices encounter several challenges because of the nature of underground features and characteristics. Lack of real time information from underground workings may hamper production and create serious safety risks. Proper communication and monitoring devices are inevitable requirements for better production and improved safety. Communication and environmental monitoring devices are basic element of underground mine infrastructure. This paper describes the performance of communication and monitoring devices being used in underground mines. An attempt has been made to assess the safety risks by these devices which may dictate future research directions.

Evaluation of developmental toxicity and apoptotic induction of the aqueous extract of Millettia pachycarpa using zebrafish as model organism

Extensive and indiscriminate use of synthetic compounds and natural compounds obtained from plant sources have resulted in serious threats to the aquatic ecosystem and human health. Aqueous extract of the root of the plant, Milletia pachycarpa Benth, is currently used for killing fish in the state of Manipur, India. Moreover, this plant is also used as traditional medicine in this region. Although it is widely used in traditional medicine, there is limited information available regarding the adverse effects and mechanism underlying its toxicity. This study examined the effects of exposure to aqueous extract of M. pachycarpa (AEMP) on early embryonic development of zebrafish embryos and mechanisms underlying toxicity. Zebrafish embryos treated with different concentrations of the AEMP produced embryonic lethality and developmental defects. The 96-hr-LC50 of AEMP was found to be 4.276 mu g/mL. Further, multiple developmental abnormalities such as pericardial edema, yolk sac edema, spinal curvature, swim bladder deflation, decreased heart rate, and delayed hatching were also observed in a dose-dependent manner. Zebrafish embryo showing moderate-to-severe developmental defects following AEMP exposure cannot swim properly. Further, this study examined oxidative stress and apoptosis in embryos exposed to AEMP. Enhanced production of ROS and apoptosis was found in brain, trunk, and tail of zebrafish embryos treated with AEMP. Data suggest that oxidative stress and apoptosis are associated with AEMP-induced embryonic lethality and developmental toxicity in zebrafish embryos.