Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Challenges in vulnerability assessment of forests under climate change

Forest-management goals in the context of climate change are to reduce the adverse impact of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystem services and carbon stocks. For developing an effective adaptation strategy, knowledge on nature and sources of vulnerability of forests is necessary to conserve or enhance carbon sinks. However, assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems is a challenging task, as the mechanisms that determine vulnerability cannot be observed directly. In this article, we list the challenges in forest vulnerability assessments and propose an assessment of inherent vulnerability by using process-based indicators under the current climate. We also suggest periodic assessment of vulnerability, which is necessary to review adaptation strategies for the management of forests and forest carbon stocks.

Integrating biodiversity and conservation with modern agricultural landscapes

To achieve food security and meet the demands of the ever-growing human populations, farming systems have assumed unsustainable practices to produce more from a finite land area. This has been cause for concern mainly due to the often-irreversible damage done to the otherwise productive agricultural landscapes. Agro-ecology is proclaimed to be deteriorating due to eroding integrity of connected ecological mosaics and vulnerability to climate change. This has contributed to declining species diversity, loss of buffer vegetation, fragmentation of habitats, and loss of natural pollinators or predators, which eventually leads to decline in ecosystem services. Currently, a hierarchy of conservation initiatives is being considered to restore ecological integrity of agricultural landscapes. However, the challenge of identifying a suitable conservation strategy is a daunting task in view of socio-ecological factors that may constrain the choice of available strategies. One way to mitigate this situation and integrate biodiversity with agricultural landscapes is to implement offset mechanisms, which are compensatory and balancing approaches to restore the ecological health and function of an ecosystem. This needs to be tailored to the history of location specific agricultural practices, and the social, ecological and environmental conditions. The offset mechanisms can complement other initiatives through which farmers are insured against landscape-level risks such as droughts, fire and floods. For countries in the developing world with significant biodiversity and extensive agriculture, we should promote a comprehensive model of sustainable agricultural landscapes and ecosystem services, replicable at landscape to regional scales. Arguably, the model can be a potential option to sustain the integrity of biodiversity mosaic in agricultural landscapes.

How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?

Feeding 9-10billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1)) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100US$ tCO(2)-eq. yr(-1)), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25ha), all stems 1cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 degrees S-61 degrees N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 degrees C), changes in precipitation (up to +/- 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8g Nm(-2)yr(-1) and 3.1g Sm(-2)yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.