Climate change and forests in India: adaptation opportunities and challenges

Climate change is projected to lead to shift of forest types leading to irreversible damage to forests by rendering several species extinct and potentially affecting the livelihoods of local communities and the economy. Approximately 47% and 42% of tropical dry deciduous grids are projected to undergo shifts under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios respectively, as opposed to less than 16% grids comprising of tropical wet evergreen forests. Similarly, the tropical thorny scrub forest is projected to undergo shifts in majority of forested grids under A2 (more than 80%) as well as B2 scenarios (50% of grids). Thus the forest managers and policymakers need to adapt to the ecological as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change. This requires formulation of effective forest management policies and practices, incorporating climate concerns into long-term forest policy and management plans. India has formulated a large number of innovative and progressive forest policies but a mechanism to ensure effective implementation of these policies is needed. Additional policies and practices may be needed to address the impacts of climate change. This paper discusses an approach and steps involved in the development of an adaptation framework as well as policies, strategies and practices needed for mainstreaming adaptation to cope with projected climate change. Further, the existing barriers which may affect proactive adaptation planning given the scale, accuracy and uncertainty associated with assessing climate change impacts are presented.

Forest policies and programs affecting vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

Due to large scale afforestation programs and forest conservation legislations, India's total forest area seems to have stabilized or even increased. In spite of such efforts, forest fragmentation and degradation continues, with forests being subject to increased pressure due to anthropogenic factors. Such fragmentation and degradation is leading to the forest cover to change from very dense to moderately dense and open forest and 253 km(2) of very dense forest has been converted to moderately dense forest, open forest, scrub and non-forest (during 2005-2007). Similarly, there has been a degradation of 4,120 km(2) of moderately dense forest to open forest, scrub and non-forest resulting in a net loss of 936 km(2) of moderately dense forest. Additionally, 4,335 km(2) of open forest have degraded to scrub and non-forest. Coupled with pressure due to anthropogenic factors, climate change is likely to be an added stress on forests. Forest sector programs and policies are major factors that determine the status of forests and potentially resilience to projected impacts of climate change. An attempt is made to review the forest policies and programs and their implications for the status of forests and for vulnerability of forests to projected climate change. The study concludes that forest conservation and development policies and programs need to be oriented to incorporate climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

Does acoustic adaptation drive vertical stratification? A test in a tropical cricket assemblage

In species-rich assemblages, differential utilization of vertical space can be driven by resource availability. For animals that communicate acoustically over long distances under habitat-induced constraints, access to an effective transmission channel is a valuable resource. The acoustic adaptation hypothesis suggests that habitat acoustics imposes a selective pressure that drives the evolution of both signal structure and choice of calling sites by signalers. This predicts that species-specific signals transmit best in native habitats. In this study, we have tested the hypothesis that vertical stratification of calling heights of acoustically communicating species is driven by acoustic adaptation. This was tested in an assemblage of 12 coexisting species of crickets and katydids in a tropical wet evergreen forest. We carried out transmission experiments using natural calls at different heights from the forest floor to the canopy. We measured signal degradation using 3 different measures: total attenuation, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and envelope distortion. Different sets of species supported the hypothesis depending on which attribute of signal degradation was examined. The hypothesis was upheld by 5 species for attenuation and by 3 species each for SNR and envelope distortion. Only 1 species of 12 provided support for the hypothesis by all 3 measures of signal degradation. The results thus provided no overall support for acoustic adaptation as a driver of vertical stratification of coexisting cricket and katydid species.

Cultural-Evolution of Ecological Prudence

Animals often behave in a profligate fashion and decimate the populations of plants and animals they depend upon. They may, however, evolve prudent behaviour under special conditions, namely when such prudence greatly enhances the success of populations that are not too prone to invasions by profligate individuals. Cultural evolution in human societies can also lead to the adoption of prudent practices under similar conditions. These are more likely to be realized in stable environments in which the human populations tend to grow close to the carrying capacity, when the human groups are closed, and when the technology is stagnant. These conditions probably prevailed in the hunter—gatherer societies of the tropics and subtropics, and led to the adoption of a number of socially imposed restraints on the use of plant and animal resources. Such practices were rationalized in the form of Nature-worship. The Indian caste society became so organized as to fulfill these conditions, and gave rise to two religions, Buddhism and Jainism, which emphasize compassion towards all forms of life. The pastoral nomads of the middle east, on the other hand, lived in an environment which militated against prudence, and these societies gave rise to religions like Christianity, which declared war on nature. As the ruling elite and state have grown in power, they have tried to wrest control of natural resources from the local communities. This has sometimes resulted in conservation and prudent use under guidance from the state, but has often led to conflicts with local populations to the detriment of prudent behaviour. Modern technological progress has also often removed the need for conservation, as when availability of coal permitted the deforestation of England. While modern scientific understanding has led to a better appreciation of the need for prudence, the prevailing social and economic conditions often militate against any implementation of the understanding, as is seen from the history of whaling. However, the imperative for survival of the poor from the Third-World countries may finally bring about conditions in which ecological prudence may once again come to dominate human cultures as it might once have done with stable societies of hunter—gatherers.

Adaptive significance of the Indian caste system: an ecological perspective

Indian society is an agglomeration of several thousand endogamous groups or castes each with a restricted geographical range and a hereditarily determine mode of subsistence. These reproductively isolated castes may be compared to biological species, and the society thought of as a biological community with each caste having its specific ecological niche. In this paper we examine the ecological-niche relationships of castes which are directly dependent on natural resources. Evidence is presented to show that castes living together in the same region had so organized their pattern of resource use as to avoid excessive intercaste competition for limiting resources. Furthermore, territorial division of the total range of the caste regulated intra-caste competition. Hence, a particular plant or animal resource in a given locality was used almost exclusively by a given lineage within a caste generation after generation. This favoured the cultural evolution of traditions ensuring sustainable use of natural resources. This must have contributed significantly to the stability of Indian caste society over several thousand years. The collapse of the base of natural resources and increasing monetarization of the economy has, however, destroyed the earlier complementarity between the different castes and led to increasing conflicts between them in recent years.

A comparative study of speaker adaptation methods

For the problem of speaker adaptation in speech recognition, the performance depends on the availability of adaptation data. In this paper, we have compared several existing speaker adaptation methods, viz. maximum likelihood linear regression (MLLR), eigenvoice (EV), eigenspace-based MLLR (EMLLR), segmental eigenvoice (SEV) and hierarchical eigenvoice (HEV) based methods. We also develop a new method by modifying the existing HEV method for achieving further performance improvement in a limited available data scenario. In the sense of availability of adaptation data, the new modified HEV (MHEV) method is shown to perform better than all the existing methods throughout the range of operation except the case of MLLR at the availability of more adaptation data.

The Consequences of Phenotypic Plasticity in Cyclically Varying Environments: A Genetic Algorithm Study

By “phenotypic plasticity” we refer to the capacity of a genotype to exhibit different phenotypes, whether in the same or in different environments. We have previously demonstrated that phenotypic plasticity can improve the degree of adaptation achieved via natural selection (Behera & Nanjundiah, 1995). That result was obtained from a genetic algorithm model of haploid genotypes (idealized as one-dimensional strings of genes) evolving in a fixed environment. Here, the dynamics of evolution is examined under conditions of a cyclically varying environment. We find that the rate of evolution, as well as the extent of adaptation (as measured by mean population fitness) is lowered because of environmental cycling. The decrease is adaptation caused by a varying environment can, however, be partly or wholly compensated by an increase in the degree of plasticity that a genotype is capable of. Also, the reduction of population fitness caused by a variable environment can be partially offset by decreasing the total number of genetic loci. We conjecture that an increase in genome size may have been among the factors responsible for the evolution of phenotypic plasticity.

Relationship between annual rainfall and tree mortality in a tropical dry forest: Results of a 19-year study at Mudumalai, southern India

Variability in rainfall is known to be a major influence on the dynamics of tropical forests, especially rates and patterns of tree mortality. In tropical dry forests a number of contributing factors to tree mortality, including dry season fire and herbivory by large herbivorous mammals, could be related to rainfall patterns, while loss of water potential in trees during the dry season or a wet season drought could also result in enhanced rates of death. While tree mortality as influenced by severe drought has been examined in tropical wet forests there is insufficient understanding of this process in tropical dry forests. We examined these causal factors in relation to inter-annual differences in rainfall in causing tree mortality within a 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot located in the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mudumalai, southern India, that has been monitored annually since 1988. Over a 19-year period (1988-2007) mean annual mortality rate of all stems >1 cm dbh was 6.9 +/- 4.6% (range = 1.5-17.5%); mortality rates broadly declined from the smaller to the larger size classes with the rates in stems >30 cm dbh being among the lowest recorded in tropical forest globally. Fire was the main agent of mortality in stems 1-5 cm dbh, elephant-herbivory in stems 5-10 cm dbh, and other natural causes in stems > 10 cm dbh. Elephant-related mortality did not show any relationship to rainfall. On the other hand, fire-related mortality was significantly negatively correlated to quantity of rainfall during the preceding year. Mortality due to other causes in the larger stem sizes was significantly negatively correlated to rainfall with a 2-3-year lag, suggesting that water deficit from mild or prolonged drought enhanced the risk of death but only with a time lag that was greater than similar lags in tree mortality observed in other forest types. In this respect, tropical dry forests growing in regions of high rainfall variability may have evolved greater resistance to rainfall deficit as compared to tropical moist or temperate forests but are still vulnerable to drought-related mortality.

A hitchhiker's guide to a crowded syconium: how do fig nematodes find the right ride?

P>1Organisms with low mobility, living within ephemeral environments,need to find vehicles that can disperse them reliably to new environments. The requirement for specificity in this passenger-vehicle relationship is enhanced within a tritrophic interaction when the environment of passenger and vehicle is provided by a third organism. Such relationships pose many interesting questions about specificity within a tritrophic framework. 2. Central to understanding how these tritrophic systems have evolved, is knowing how they function now. Determining the proximal cues and sensory modalities used by passengers to find vehicles and to discriminate between reliable and non-reliable vehicles is, therefore, essential to this investigation. 3. The ancient, co-evolved and highly species-specific nursery pollination mutualism between figs and fig wasps is host to species-specific plant-parasitic nematodes which use fig wasps to travel between figs. Since individual globular fig inflorescences, i.e. syconia, serve as incubators for hundreds of developing pollinating and parasitic wasps, a dispersal-stage nematode within such a chemically,complex and physically crowded environment is faced with the dilemma of choosing the right vehicle for dispersal into a new fig. Such a system therefore affords excellent opportunities to investigate mechanisms that contribute to the evolution of specificity between the passenger and the vehicle. 4. In this study of fig-wasp-nematode tritrophic interactions in Ficus racemosa within which seven wasp species can breed, we demonstrate using two-choice as well as cafeteria assays that plant-parasitic nematodes (Schistonchus racemosa) do not hitch rides randomly on available eclosing wasps within the fig syconium, but are specifically attracted, at close range, i.e. 3 mm distance, to only that vehicle which can quickly, within a few hours, reliably transfer it to another fig. This vehicle is the female pollinating wasp. Male wasps and female parasitic wasps are inappropriate vehicles since the former are wingless and die within the fig, while the latter never enter another fig. Nematodes distinguished between female pollinating wasps and other female parasitic wasps using volatiles and cuticular hydrocarbons. Nematodes could not distinguish between cuticular hydrocarbons of male and female pollinators but used other cues, such as volatiles, at close range, to find female pollinating wasps with which they have probably had a long history of chemical adaptation. 5. This study opens up new questions and hypotheses about the evolution and maintenance of specificity in fig-wasp-nematode tritrophic interactions.

From Bathymetry to Bioshields: A Review of Post-Tsunami Ecological Research in India and its Implications for Policy

More than half a decade has passed since the December 26th 2004 tsunami hit the Indian coast leaving a trail of ecological, economic and human destruction in its wake. We reviewed the coastal ecological research carried out in India in the light of the tsunami. In addition, we also briefly reviewed the ecological research in other tsunami affected countries in Asia namely Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand and Maldives in order to provide a broader perspective of ecological research after tsunami. A basic search in ISI Web of Knowledge using keywords ``tsunami'' and ``India'' resulted in 127 peer reviewed journal articles, of which 39 articles were pertaining to ecological sciences. In comparison, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand and Maldives had, respectively, eight, four, 21 and two articles pertaining to ecology. In India, bioshields received the major share of scientific interest (14 out of 39) while only one study (each) was dedicated to corals, seagrasses, seaweeds and meiofauna, pointing to the paucity of research attention dedicated to these critical ecosystems. We noted that very few interdisciplinary studies looked at linkages between pure/applied sciences and the social sciences in India. In addition, there appears to be little correlation between the limited research that was done and its influence on policy in India. This review points to gap areas in ecological research in India and highlights the lessons learnt from research in other tsunami-affected countries. It also provides guidance on the links between science and policy that are required for effective coastal zone management.

Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.