Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

Optical and Physical Properties of Atmospheric Aerosols over the Bay of Bengal during ICARB

Simultaneous and collocated measurements of total and hemispherical backscattering coefficients (σ and β, respectively) at three wavelengths, mass size distributions, and columnar spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) were made onboard an extensive cruise experiment covering, for the first time, the entire Bay of Bengal (BoB) and northern Indian Ocean. The results are synthesized to understand the optical properties of aerosols in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and their dependence on the size distribution. The observations revealed distinct spatial and spectral variations of all the aerosol parameters over the BoB and the presence of strong latitudinal gradients. The size distributions varied spatially, with the majority of accumulation modes decreasing from north to south. The scattering coefficient decreased from very high values (resembling those reported for continental/urban locations) in the northern BoB to very low values seen over near-pristine environments in the southeastern BoB. The average mass scattering efficiency of BoB aerosols was found to be 2.66 ± 0.1 m2 g−1 at 550 nm. The spectral dependence of columnar AOD deviated significantly from that of the scattering coefficients in the northern BoB, implying vertical heterogeneity in the aerosol type in that region. However, a more homogeneous scenario was observed in the southern BoB. Simultaneous lidar and in situ measurements onboard an aircraft over the ocean revealed the presence of elevated aerosol layers of enhanced extinction at altitudes of 1 to 3 km with an offshore extent of a few hundred kilometers. Back-trajectory analyses showed these layers to be associated with advection from west Asia and western India. The large spatial variations and vertical heterogeneity in aerosol properties, revealed by the present study, need to be included in the regional radiative forcing over the Bay of Bengal.

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. center dot Land-use changes affect global and regional climates through both biochemical and biophysical process. center dot Climate effect from biophysical process depends on the location of land-use change. center dot Climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation/reforestation should consider the net effect of biochemical and biophysical processes for effective mitigation. center dot Climate-smart agriculture could use bio-geoengineering techniques that consider plant biophysical characteristics such as reflectivity and water use efficiency.

Effect of substrates and surfactants over the evolution of crystallographic texture of nanostructured ZnO thin films deposited through microwave irradiation

In spite of intense research on ZnO over the past decade, the detailed investigation about the crystallographic texture of as obtained ZnO thin films/coatings, and its deviation with growth surface is scarce. We report a systematic study about the orientation distribution of nanostructured ZnO thin films fabricated by microwave irradiation with the variation of substrates and surfactants. The nanostructured films comprising of ZnO nanorods are grown on semiconductor substrates such as Si(100), Ge(100)], conducting substrates (ITO-coated glass, Cr coated Si), and polymer coated Si (PMMA/Si) to examine the respective development of crystallographic texture. The ZnO deposited on semiconductor substrates yieldsmixed texture, whereas c-axis oriented ZnO nanostructured films are obtained by conducting substrate, and PMMA coated Si substrates. Among all the surfactants, nanostructured film produced by using the lower molecular weight of polymeric surfactants (polyvinylpyrrolidone) shows a stronger (0002) texture, and that can be tuned to (10 - 10) by increasing the molecular weight of the surfactant. The strongest basal pole is achieved for the ZnO deposited on PMMA coated Si as substrate, and cetyl-trimethyl ammonium bromide as cationic surfactant. The texture analysis is carried out by X-ray pole figure analysis using the Schultz reflection method. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diurnal-scale signatures of monsoon rainfall over the Indian region from TRMM satellite observations

One of the most important modes of summer season precipitation variability over the Indian region, the diurnal cycle, is studied using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3-hourly, 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999-2007). Most previous studies have provided an analysis of a single year or a few years of satellite-or station-based rainfall data. Our study aims to systematically analyze the statistical characteristics of the diurnal-scale signature of rainfall over the Indian and surrounding regions. Using harmonic analysis, we extract the signal corresponding to diurnal and subdiurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time period or the octet of rainfall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the ``peak octet,'' is estimated, with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430, and 1730 Indian standard time (IST), from the north central to south bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian Sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet owing to the occurrence of a ual maxima (early morng and early/late afternoon). The imalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430-1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e. g., Himalayas) is significantly different from coastal orography (e. g., Western Ghats). We also find that over the Gangetic plains, the peak octet is around 1430 IST, a few hours earlier compared to the typical early evening maxima over land.

The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere during active and weak phases of convection over the north Bay of Bengal: Observation and model results

Owing to the lack of atmospheric vertical profile data with sufficient accuracy and vertical resolution, the response of the deep atmosphere to passage of monsoon systems over the Bay of Bengal. had not been satisfactorily elucidated. Under the Indian Climate Research Programme, a special observational programme called 'Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment' (BOBMEX), was conducted during July-August 1999. The present study is based on the high-resolution radiosondes launched during BOBMEX in the north Bay. Clear changes in the vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere between active and weak phases of convection have been observed. The atmosphere cooled below 6 km height and became warmer between 6 and 13 km height. The warmest layer was located between 8 and 10 km height, and the coldest layer was found just below 5 km height. The largest fluctuations in the humidity field occurred in the mid-troposphere. The observed changes between active and weak phases of convection are compared with the results from an atmospheric general circulation model, which is similar to that used at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, New Delhi. The model is not able to capture realistically some important features of the temperature and humidity profiles in the lower troposphere and in the boundary layer during the active and weak spells.

Reproductive queue without overt conflict in the primitively eusocial wasp Ropalidia marginata

Colonies of the primitively eusocial wasp Ropalidia marginata consist of a single egg layer (queen) and a number of non-egg-laying workers. Although the queen is a docile individual, not at the top of the behavioral dominance hierarchy of the colony, she maintains complete reproductive monopoly. If the queen is lost or removed, one and only one of the workers potential queen (PQ)] becomes hyperaggressive and will become the next queen of the colony. The PQ is almost never challenged because she first becomes hyperaggressive and then gradually loses her aggression, develops her ovaries, and starts laying eggs. Although we are unable to identify the PQ when the queen is present, she appears to be a ``cryptic heir designate.'' Here, we show that there is not just one heir designate but a long reproductive queue and that PQs take over the role of egg-laying, successively, without overt conflict, as the queen or previous PQs are removed. The dominance rank of an individual is not a significant predictor of its position in the succession hierarchy. The age of an individual is a significant predictor, but it is not a perfect predictor because PQs often bypass older individuals to become successors. We suggest that such a predesignated reproductive queue that is implemented without overt conflict is adaptive in the tropics, where conspecific usurpers from outside the colony, which can take advantage of the anarchy prevailing in a queenless colony and invade it, are likely to be present throughout the year.

Spatial patterning of the distribution of Ca-2+ in Dictyostelium discoideum

We have shown previously that the Ca2+-specific fluorescent dyes chlortetracycline (CTC) and indo-1/AM can be used to distinguish between prestalk and prespore cells in Dictyostelium discoideum at a very early stage. In the present study, pre- and post-aggregative amoebae of Dictyostelium discoideum were labelled with CTC or indo-1 and their fluorescence monitored after being drawn into a fine glass capillary. The cells rapidly form two zones of Ca2+-CTC or Ca2+-indo-1 fluorescence. Anterior (air side) cells display a high level of fluorescence; the level drops in the middle portion of the capillary and rises again to a lesser extent in the posteriormost cells (oil side). When bounded by air on both sides, the cells display high fluorescence at both ends. When oil is present at both ends of the capillary, there is little fluorescence except for small regions at the ends. These outcomes are evident within a couple of minutes of the start of the experiment and the fluorescence pattern intensifies over the course of time. By using the indicator neutral red, as well as with CTC and indo-1, we show that a band displaying strong fluorescence moves away from the anterior end before stabilizing at the anterior-posterior boundary. We discuss our findings in relation to the role of Ca2+ in cell-type differentiation in Dictyostelium discoideum.

Investigation of the characteristics of an SF6 rotating arc by a mathematical model

A mathematical model has been developed for predicting the performance of rotating arcs in SF6 gas by considering the energy balance and force balance equations. The finite difference technique has been adopted for the computer simulation of the arc characteristics. This method helps in considering the spatial variation of the transport and radiative properties of the arc. All the three heat loss mechanisms-conduction, convection, and radiation-have been considered. Results obtained over a 10 ms (half cycle of 50 Hz wave) current flow period for 1.4 kA (peak) and 4.2 kA (peak), show that the proposed arc model gives the expected behavior of the arc over the range of currents studied.

Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold's SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold's and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold's SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold's SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold's SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.

Influence of land use changes in river basins on diversity and distribution of amphibians

Land-use changes influence local biodiversity directly, and also cumulatively, contribute to regional and global changes in natural systems and quality of life. Consequent to these, direct impacts on the natural resources that support the health and integrity of living beings are evident in recent times. The Western Ghats being one of the global biodiversity hotspots, is reeling under a tremendous pressure from human induced changes in terms of developmental projects like hydel or thermal power plants, big dams, mining activities, unplanned agricultural practices,monoculture plantations, illegal timber logging, etc. This has led to the once contiguous forest habitats to be fragmented in patches, which in turn has led to the shrinkage of original habitat for the wildlife, change in the hydrological regime of the catchment, decreased inflow in streams,human-animal conflicts, etc. Under such circumstances, a proper management practice is called for requiring suitable biological indicators to show the impact of these changes, set priority regions and in developing models for conservation planning. Amphibians are regarded as one of the best biological indicators due to their sensitivity to even the slightest changes in the environment and hence they could be used as surrogates in conservation and management practices. They are the predominating vertebrates with a high degree of endemism (78%) in Western Ghats. The present study is an attempt to bring in the impacts of various land-uses on anuran distribution in three river basins. Sampling was carried out for amphibians during all seasons of 2003-2006 in basins of Sharavathi, Aghanashini and Bedthi. There are as many as 46 species in the region, one of which is new to science and nearly 59% of them are endemic to the Western Ghats. They belong to nine families, Dicroglossidae being represented by 14 species,followed by Rhacophoridae (9 species) and Ranidae (5 species). Species richness is high in Sharavathi river basin, with 36 species, followed by Bedthi 33 and Aghanashini 27. The impact of land-use changes, was investigated in the upper catchment of Sharavathi river basin. Species diversity indices, relative abundance values, percentage endemics gave clear indication of differences in each sub-catchment. Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) was calculated between species richness, endemics, environmental descriptors, land-use classes and fragmentation metrics. Principal component analysis was performed to depict the influence of these variables. Results show that sub-catchments with lesser percentage of forest, low canopy cover, higher amount of agricultural area, low rainfall have low species richness, less endemic species and abundant non-endemic species, whereas endemism, species richness and abundance of endemic species are more in the sub-catchments with high tree density, endemic trees, canopy cover, rainfall and lower amount of agriculture fields. This analysis aided in prioritising regions in the Sharavathi river basin for further conservation measures.

The Role of Tool Design in Influencing the Mechanism for the Formation of Friction Stir Welds in Aluminum Alloy 7020

Design of the required tool is a key and important parameter in the technique of friction stir welding (FSW). This is so because tool design does exert a close control over the quality of the weld. In an attempt to optimize tool design and its selection, it is essential and desirable to understand the mechanisms governing the formation of the weld. In this research study, few experiments were conducted to systematically analyze the intrinsic mechanisms governing the formation of the weld and to effectively utilize the analysis to establish a logical basis for design of the tool. For this purpose, the experiments were conducted using different geometries of the shoulder and pin of the rotating tool in such a way that only tool geometry had an intrinsic influence on formation of the weld. The results revealed that for a particular diameter of the pin there is an optimum diameter of the shoulder. Below this optimum shoulder diameter, the weld does not form while above the optimum diameter the overall symmetry of the weld is lost. Based on experimental results, a mechanism for the formation of friction stir weld is proposed. A synergism of the experimental results with the proposed mechanism is helpful in establishing the set of welding parameters for a given material.

Stretching single polymer chains of donor-acceptor foldamers: toward the quantitative study on the extent of folding

Single-molecule force spectroscopy has proven to be an efficient tool for the quantitative characterization of flexible foldamers on the single-molecule level in this study. The extent of folding has been estimated quantitatively for the first time to the best of our knowledge, which is crucial for a better understanding of the ``folding-process'' on single-molecule level. Therefore, this study may provide a guidance to regulate folding for realizing rational control over the functions of bulk materials.

Energy Loss in the Impact of Elastic Spheres on a Rigid Half-Space in Presence of Adhesion

Adhesion can cause energy losses in asperities or particles coming into dynamic contact resulting in frictional dissipation, even if the deformation occurring is purely elastic. Such losses are of special significance in impact of nanoparticles and friction between surfaces under low contact pressure to hardness ratio. The objective of this work is to study the effect of adhesion during the normal impact of elastic spheres on a rigid half-space, with an emphasis on understanding the mechanism of energy loss. We use finite element method for modeling the impact phenomenon, with the adhesion due to van der Waals force and the short-range repulsion included as body forces distributed over the volume of the sphere. This approach, in contrast with commonly used surface force approximation, helps to model the interactions in a more precise way. We find that the energy loss in impact of elastic spheres is negligible unless there are adhesion-induced instabilities. Significant energy loss through elastic stress waves occurs due to jump-to-contact and jump-out-of-contact instabilities and can even result in capture of the elastic sphere on the half-space.