71 resultados para climatic extremes

em Indian Institute of Science - Bangalore - Índia


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Stable carbon isotope ratios of peats dated (by C-14) back to 40 kyr BP from the montane region (> 1800 m asl) of the Nilgiris, southern India, reflect changes in the relative proportions of C3 and C4 plant types, which are influenced by soil moisture (and hence monsoonal precipitation), From prior to 40 kyr BP until 28 kyr BP, a general decline in delta(13)C values from about - 14 per mil to - 19 per mil suggests increased dominance of C3 plants concurrent with increasingly moist conditions, During 28-18 kyr BP there seems relatively little change with delta(13) C of - 19 to - 18 per mil, At about 16 kyr BP a sharp reversal in delta(13)C to a peak of - 14.7 per mil indicates a clear predominance of C4 vegetation associated with arid conditions, possibly during or just after the Last Glacial Maximum, A moist phase at about 9 kyr BP (the Holocene Optimum) with dominance of C3 vegetation type is observed, while arid conditions are re-established during 5-2 kyr BP with an overall dominance of C4 vegetation, New data do not support the occurrence of a moist phase coinciding with the Mediaeval Warm Period (at 0.6 kyr BP) as suggested earlier, Overall, the climate and vegetation in the high altitude regions of the southern Indian tropics seem to have responded to past global climatic changes, and this is consistent with other evidences from India and other tropical regions.

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A 50-year tree-ring delta O-18 chronology of Abies spectabilis growing close to the tree line (3850 m asl) in the Nepal Himalaya is established to explore its dendroclimatic potential. Response function analysis with ambient climatic records revealed that tree-ring delta O-18 is primarily governed by rainfall during the monsoon season (June September), and the regression model accounts for 35% of the variance in rainfall. Extreme dry years identified in instrumental weather data are detected in the delta O-18 chronology. Further, tree-ring delta O-18 is much more sensitive to rainfall fluctuations than other tree-ring parameters such as width and density typically used in dendroclimatology. Correlation analyses with Nino 3.4 SST reveal time-dependent behavior of ENSO-monsoon relationships. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.

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This paper presents the first stable isotope (delta O-18 and delta C-13) data of a similar to 400 years (1590-2006 AD) long annual to decadal-resolution speleothem record collected from the Indian Lesser Himalaya. The data show a variation from -2.7 to -5.9 parts per thousand in delta O-18 and -5.3 to -8.8 parts per thousand in delta C-13. The isotopic analyses indicate that the climate during this period can be divided into two stages: a wet phase during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1590-1850 AD) and comparatively dry phase during the post-LIA after 1850 AD. However, the record also documents the minor dry events during the LIA and a wet episode after the LIA. Within the age uncertainty, the dry spells during the LIA are linked with the historical drought events in the Indian subcontinent and similar latitudes. The isotopic record is consistent with a number of previous studies in the areas influenced by the Westerlies but appears to be conflicting to the regions, dominated by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). This may be due to the possible changes in the strength of Westerlies in the study area and added by negative anomaly of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the LIA. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

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An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

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Hydrogeological and climatic effect on chemical behavior of groundwater along a climatic gradient is studied along a river basin. `Semi-arid' (500-800 mm of mean annual rainfall), `sub-humid' (800-1,200 mm/year) and `humid' (1,200-1,500 mm/year) are the climatic zones chosen along the granito-gneissic plains of Kabini basin in South India for the present analysis. Data on groundwater chemistry is initially checked for its quality using NICB ratio (<+/- 5 %), EC versus TZ+ (similar to 0.85 correlation), EC versus TDS and EC versus TH analysis. Groundwater in the three climatic zones is `hard' to `very hard' in terms of Ca-Mg hardness. Polluted wells are identified (> 40 % of pollution) and eliminated for the characterization. Piper's diagram with mean concentrations indicates the evolution of CaNaHCO3 (semi-arid) from CaHCO3 (humid zone) along the climatic gradient. Carbonates dominate other anions and strong acids exceeded weak acids in the region. Mule Hole SEW, an experimental watershed in sub-humid zone, is characterized initially using hydrogeochemistry and is observed to be a replica of entire sub-humid zone (with 25 wells). Extension of the studies for the entire basin (120 wells) showed a chemical gradient along the climatic gradient with sub-humid zone bridging semi-arid and humid zones. Ca/Na molar ratio varies by more than 100 times from semi-arid to humid zones. Semi-arid zone is more silicaceous than sub-humid while humid zone is more carbonaceous (Ca/Cl similar to 14). Along the climatic gradient, groundwater is undersaturated (humid), saturated (sub-humid) and slightly supersaturated (semi-arid) with calcite and dolomite. Concentration-depth profiles are in support of the geological stratification i.e., not approximate to 18 m of saprolite and similar to 25 m of fracture rock with parent gneiss beneath. All the wells are classified into four groups based on groundwater fluctuations and further into `deep' and `shallow' based on the depth to groundwater. Higher the fluctuations, larger is its impact on groundwater chemistry. Actual seasonal patterns are identified using `recharge-discharge' concept based on rainfall intensity instead of traditional monsoon-non-monsoon concept. Non-pumped wells have low Na/Cl and Ca/Cl ratios in recharge period than in discharge period (Dilution). Few other wells, which are subjected to pumping, still exhibit dilution chemistry though water level fluctuations are high due to annual recharge. Other wells which do not receive sufficient rainfall and are constantly pumped showed high concentrations in recharge period rather than in discharge period (Anti-dilution). In summary, recharge-discharge concept demarcates the pumped wells from natural deep wells thus, characterizing the basin.

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Stable isotopes from a U/Th dated aragonite stalagmite from the Central Kumaun Himalaya provide evidence of variation in climatic conditions in the last similar to 1800 years. The delta O-18 and delta C-13 values vary from -4.3 parts per thousand to -7.6 parts per thousand and -3.4 parts per thousand to -9.1 parts per thousand respectively, although the stalagmite was not grown in isotopic equilibrium with cave drip water, a clear palaeoclimatic signal in stalagmite delta O-18 values is evident based on the regional climate data. The stalagmite showed a rapid growth rate during 830-910 AD, most likely the lower part of Medieval Warm Period (MWP), and 1600-1640 AD, the middle part of Little Ice Age (LIA). Two distinct phases of reduced precipitation are marked by a 2 parts per thousand shift in 8180 values towards the end of MWP (similar to 1080-1160 AD) and after its termination from similar to 1210 to 1440 AD. The LIA (similar to 1440-1880 AD) is represented by sub-tropical climate similar to modern conditions, whereas the post-LIA was comparatively drier. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was located over the cave location during wetter/warmer conditions. When it shifted southward, precipitation over the study area decreased. A prominent drop in delta O-18 and delta C-13 values during the post-LIA period may also have been additionally influenced by anthropogenic activity in the area. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

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The aim of this study is to propose a method to assess the long-term chemical weathering mass balance for a regolith developed on a heterogeneous silicate substratum at the small experimental watershed scale by adopting a combined approach of geophysics, geochemistry and mineralogy. We initiated in 2003 a study of the steep climatic gradient and associated geomorphologic features of the edge of the rifted continental passive margin of the Karnataka Plateau, Peninsular India. In the transition sub-humid zone of this climatic gradient we have studied the pristine forested small watershed of Mule Hole (4.3 km(2)) mainly developed on gneissic substratum. Mineralogical, geochemical and geophysical investigations were carried out (i) in characteristic red soil profiles and (ii) in boreholes up to 60 m deep in order to take into account the effect of the weathering mantle roots. In addition, 12 Electrical Resistivity Tomography profiles (ERT), with an investigation depth of 30 m, were generated at the watershed scale to spatially characterize the information gathered in boreholes and soil profiles. The location of the ERT profiles is based on a previous electromagnetic survey, with an investigation depth of about 6 m. The soil cover thickness was inferred from the electromagnetic survey combined with a geological/pedological survey. Taking into account the parent rock heterogeneity, the degree of weathering of each of the regolith samples has been defined using both the mineralogical composition and the geochemical indices (Loss on Ignition, Weathering Index of Parker, Chemical Index of Alteration). Comparing these indices with electrical resistivity logs, it has been found that a value of 400 Ohm m delineates clearly the parent rocks and the weathered materials, Then the 12 inverted ERT profiles were constrained with this value after verifying the uncertainty due to the inversion procedure. Synthetic models based on the field data were used for this purpose. The estimated average regolith thickness at the watershed scale is 17.2 m, including 15.2 m of saprolite and 2 m of soil cover. Finally, using these estimations of the thicknesses, the long-term mass balance is calculated for the average gneiss-derived saprolite and red soil. In the saprolite, the open-system mass-transport function T indicates that all the major elements except Ca are depleted. The chlorite and biotite crystals, the chief sources for Mg (95%), Fe (84%), Mn (86%) and K (57%, biotite only), are the first to undergo weathering and the oligoclase crystals are relatively intact within the saprolite with a loss of only 18%. The Ca accumulation can be attributed to the precipitation of CaCO3 from the percolating solution due to the current and/or the paleoclimatic conditions. Overall, the most important losses occur for Si, Mg and Na with -286 x 10(6) mol/ha (62% of the total mass loss), -67 x 10(6) mol/ha (15% of the total mass loss) and -39 x 10(6) mol/ha (9% of the total mass loss), respectively. Al, Fe and K account for 7%, 4% and 3% of the total mass loss, respectively. In the red soil profiles, the open-system mass-transport functions point out that all major elements except Mn are depleted. Most of the oligoclase crystals have broken down with a loss of 90%. The most important losses occur for Si, Na and Mg with -55 x 10(6) mol/ha (47% of the total mass loss), -22 x 10(6) mol/ha (19% of the total mass loss) and -16 x 10(6) mol/ha (14% of the total mass loss), respectively. Ca, Al, K and Fe account for 8%, 6%, 4% and 2% of the total mass loss, respectively. Overall these findings confirm the immaturity of the saprolite at the watershed scale. The soil profiles are more evolved than saprolite but still contain primary minerals that can further undergo weathering and hence consume atmospheric CO2.

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This paper presents a study on the durability of different types of stabilised and unstabilised rammed earth walls. These rammed earth walls were constructed and exposed for 20 years to natural weathering, in a wet continental climate. None of these walls have shown complete collapse to date. A method to measure the rammed earth walls erosion by stereo-photogrammetry has been developed. The result shows that the mean erosion depth of the studied walls is about 2 mm (0.5% wall thickness) in the case of rammed earth wall stabilised with 5% by dry weight of hydraulic lime and about 6.4 mm (1.6% wall thickness) in the case of unstabilised rammed earth walls. The stabilisation enables to not use any plaster to protect the walls. In the case of the unstabilised rammed earth walls, an extrapolated lifetime longer than 60 years can be assessed. This shows a potential for the use of unstabilised rammed earth in the similar climatic conditions with this study. The method of stereo-photogrammetry used to measure the erosion of rammed earth walls on site may also help to calibrate and develop more pertinent laboratory test to assess the durability of rammed earth wall.

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Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 decrease stomatal conductance of plants and thus suppress canopy transpiration. The climate response to this CO2-physiological forcing is investigated using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 coupled to Community Land Model version 3.0. In response to the physiological effect of doubling CO2, simulations show a decrease in canopy transpiration of 8%, a mean warming of 0.1K over the land surface, and negligible changes in the hydrological cycle. These climate responses are much smaller than what were found in previous modeling studies. This is largely a result of unrealistic partitioning of evapotranspiration in our model control simulation with a greatly underestimated contribution from canopy transpiration and overestimated contributions from canopy and soil evaporation. This study highlights the importance of a realistic simulation of the hydrological cycle, especially the individual components of evapotranspiration, in reducing the uncertainty in our estimation of climatic response to CO2-physiological forcing. Citation: Cao, L., G. Bala, K. Caldeira, R. Nemani, and G.Ban-Weiss (2009), Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0).

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The far-ultraviolet region circular dichroic spectrumof serine hydroxymethyltransferase from monkey liver showed that the protein is in an α-helical conformation. The near ultraviolet circular dichoric spectrum revealed two negative bands originating from the tertiary conformational environment of the aromatic amino acid residues. Addition of urea or guanidinium chloride perturbed the characteristic fluorescence and far ultraviolet circular dichroic spectrum of the enzyme. The decrease in (θ)222 and enzyme activity followed identical patterns with increasing concentrations of urea, whereas with guanidinium chloride, the loss of enzyme activity preceded the loss of secondary structure. 2-Chloroethanol, trifluoroethanol and sodium dodecyl sulphate enhanced the mean residue ellipticity values. In addition, sodium dodecyl sulphate also caused a perturbation of the fluorescence emission spectrum of the enzyme. Extremes of pH decreased the – (θ)222 value. Plots of –(θ)222and enzyme activity as a function of pH showed maximal values at pH 7.4-7.5. These results suggested the prevalence of "conformational flexibility" in the structure of serine hydroxymethyltransferase.

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By applying the theory of the asymptotic distribution of extremes and a certain stability criterion to the question of the domain of convergence in the probability sense, of the renormalized perturbation expansion (RPE) for the site self-energy in a cellularly disordered system, an expression has been obtained in closed form for the probability of nonconvergence of the RPE on the real-energy axis. Hence, the intrinsic mobility mu (E) as a function of the carrier energy E is deduced to be given by mu (E)= mu 0exp(-exp( mod E mod -Ec) Delta ), where Ec is a nominal 'mobility edge' and Delta is the width of the random site-energy distribution. Thus mobility falls off sharply but continuously for mod E mod >Ec, in contradistinction with the notion of an abrupt 'mobility edge' proposed by Cohen et al. and Mott. Also, the calculated electrical conductivity shows a temperature dependence in qualitative agreement with experiments on disordered semiconductors.

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Accurate estimations of water balance are needed in semi-arid and sub-humid tropical regions, where water resources are scarce compared to water demand. Evapotranspiration plays a major role in this context, and the difficulty to quantify it precisely leads to major uncertainties in the groundwater recharge assessment, especially in forested catchments. In this paper, we propose to assess the importance of deep unsaturated regolith and water uptake by deep tree roots on the groundwater recharge process by using a lumped conceptual model (COMFORT). The model is calibrated using a 5 year hydrological monitoring of an experimental watershed under dry deciduous forest in South India (Mule Hole watershed). The model was able to simulate the stream discharge as well as the contrasted behaviour of groundwater table along the hillslope. Water balance simulated for a 32 year climatic time series displayed a large year-to-year variability, with alternance of dry and wet phases with a time period of approximately 14 years. On an average, input by the rainfall was 1090 mm year(-1) and the evapotranspiration was about 900 mm year(-1) out of which 100 mm year(-1) was uptake from the deep saprolite horizons. The stream flow was 100 mm year(-1) while the groundwater underflow was 80 mm year(-1). The simulation results suggest that (i) deciduous trees can uptake a significant amount of water from the deep regolith, (ii) this uptake, combined with the spatial variability of regolith depth, can account for the variable lag time between drainage events and groundwater rise observed for the different piezometers and (iii) water table response to recharge is buffered due to the long vertical travel time through the deep vadose zone, which constitutes a major water reservoir. This study stresses the importance of long term observations for the understanding of hydrological processes in tropical forested ecosystems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Fractional-order derivatives appear in various engineering applications including models for viscoelastic damping. Damping behavior of materials, if modeled using linear, constant coefficient differential equations, cannot include the long memory that fractional-order derivatives require. However, sufficiently great rnicrostructural disorder can lead, statistically, to macroscopic behavior well approximated by fractional order derivatives. The idea has appeared in the physics literature, but may interest an engineering audience. This idea in turn leads to an infinite-dimensional system without memory; a routine Galerkin projection on that infinite-dimensional system leads to a finite dimensional system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) (integer order) that matches the fractional-order behavior over user-specifiable, but finite, frequency ranges. For extreme frequencies (small or large), the approximation is poor. This is unavoidable, and users interested in such extremes or in the fundamental aspects of true fractional derivatives must take note of it. However, mismatch in extreme frequencies outside the range of interest for a particular model of a real material may have little engineering impact.