Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of ANN models for predicting water quality in distribution systems

Deterministic models have been widely used to predict water quality in distribution systems, but their calibration requires extensive and accurate data sets for numerous parameters. In this study, alternative data-driven modeling approaches based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to predict temporal variations of two important characteristics of water quality chlorine residual and biomass concentrations. The authors considered three types of ANN algorithms. Of these, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided the best results in predicting residual chlorine and biomass with error-free and ``noisy'' data. The ANN models developed here can generate water quality scenarios of piped systems in real time to help utilities determine weak points of low chlorine residual and high biomass concentration and select optimum remedial strategies.

Current trends in modeling hostpathogen interactions

The rapid emergence of infectious diseases calls for immediate attention to determine practical solutions for intervention strategies. To this end, it becomes necessary to obtain a holistic view of the complex hostpathogen interactome. Advances in omics and related technology have resulted in massive generation of data for the interacting systems at unprecedented levels of detail. Systems-level studies with the aid of mathematical tools contribute to a deeper understanding of biological systems, where intuitive reasoning alone does not suffice. In this review, we discuss different aspects of hostpathogen interactions (HPIs) and the available data resources and tools used to study them. We discuss in detail models of HPIs at various levels of abstraction, along with their applications and limitations. We also enlist a few case studies, which incorporate different modeling approaches, providing significant insights into disease. (c) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Current trends in modeling hostpathogen interactions

The rapid emergence of infectious diseases calls for immediate attention to determine practical solutions for intervention strategies. To this end, it becomes necessary to obtain a holistic view of the complex hostpathogen interactome. Advances in omics and related technology have resulted in massive generation of data for the interacting systems at unprecedented levels of detail. Systems-level studies with the aid of mathematical tools contribute to a deeper understanding of biological systems, where intuitive reasoning alone does not suffice. In this review, we discuss different aspects of hostpathogen interactions (HPIs) and the available data resources and tools used to study them. We discuss in detail models of HPIs at various levels of abstraction, along with their applications and limitations. We also enlist a few case studies, which incorporate different modeling approaches, providing significant insights into disease. (c) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling the role of competition and cooperation in the evolution of katydid acoustic synchrony

The precise timing of individual signals in response to those of signaling neighbors is seen in many animal species. Synchrony is the most striking of the resultant timing patterns. One of the best examples of acoustic synchrony is in katydid choruses where males produce chirps with a high degree of temporal overlap. Cooperative hypotheses that speculate on the evolutionary origins of acousti synchrony include the preservation of the species-specific call pattern, reduced predation risks, and increased call intensity. An alternative suggestion is that synchrony evolved as an epiphenomenon of competition between males in response to a female preference for chirps that lead other chirps. Previous models investigating the evolutionary origins of synchrony focused only on intrasexual competitive interactions. We investigated both competitive and cooperative hypotheses for the evolution of synchrony in the katydid Mecopoda ``Chirper'' using physiologically and ecologically realistic simulation models incorporating the natural variation in call features, ecology, female preferences, and spacing patterns, specifically aggregation. We found that although a female preference for leading chirps enables synchronous males to have some selective advantage, it is the female preference for the increased intensity of aggregations of synchronous males that enables synchrony to evolve as an evolutionarily stable strategy.

New computational approaches for wrinkled and slack membranes

The static response of thin, wrinkled membranes is studied using both a tension field approximation based on plane stress conditions and a 3D nonlinear elasticityformulation, discretized through 8-noded Cosserat point elements. While the tension field approach only obtains the wrinkled/slack regions and at best a measure of the extent of wrinkliness, the 3D elasticity solution provides, in principle, the deformed shape of a wrinkled/slack membrane. However, since membranes barely resist compression, the discretized and linearized system equations via both the approaches are ill-conditioned and solutions could thus be sensitive to discretizations errors as well as other sources of noises/imperfections. We propose a regularized, pseudo-dynamical recursion scheme that provides a sequence of updates, which are almost insensitive to theregularizing term as well as the time step size used for integrating the pseudo-dynamical form. This is borne out through several numerical examples wherein the relative performance of the proposed recursion scheme vis-a-vis a regularized Newton strategy is compared. The pseudo-time marching strategy, when implemented using 3D Cosserat point elements, also provides a computationally cheaper, numerically accurate and simpler alternative to that using geometrically exact shell theories for computing large deformations of membranes in the presence of wrinkles. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic algorithms: a survey

Genetic algorithms provide an alternative to traditional optimization techniques by using directed random searches to locate optimal solutions in complex landscapes. We introduce the art and science of genetic algorithms and survey current issues in GA theory and practice. We do not present a detailed study, instead, we offer a quick guide into the labyrinth of GA research. First, we draw the analogy between genetic algorithms and the search processes in nature. Then we describe the genetic algorithm that Holland introduced in 1975 and the workings of GAs. After a survey of techniques proposed as improvements to Holland's GA and of some radically different approaches, we survey the advances in GA theory related to modeling, dynamics, and deception

Techniques for realistic visualization of fluids: A survey

Visualization of fluids has wide applications in science, engineering and entertainment. Various methodologies Of visualizing fluids have evolved which emphasize on capturing different aspects of the fluids accurately. In this survey the existing methods for realistic visualization of fluids are reviewed. The approaches are classified based on the key concept they rely on for fluid modeling. This classification allows for easy selection of the method to be adopted for visualization given an application. It also enables identification of alternative techniques for fluid modeling.

Premixed flame response to equivalence ratio fluctuations: Comparison between reduced order modeling and detailed computations

Combustion instability events in lean premixed combustion systems can cause spatio-temporal variations in unburnt mixture fuel/air ratio. This provides a driving mechanism for heat-release oscillations when they interact with the flame. Several Reduced Order Modelling (ROM) approaches to predict the characteristics of these oscillations have been developed in the past. The present paper compares results for flame describing function characteristics determined from a ROM approach based on the level-set method, with corresponding results from detailed, fully compressible reacting flow computations for the same two dimensional slot flame configuration. The comparison between these results is seen to be sensitive to small geometric differences in the shape of the nominally steady flame used in the two computations. When the results are corrected to account for these differences, describing function magnitudes are well predicted for frequencies lesser than and greater than a lower and upper cutoff respectively due to amplification of flame surface wrinkling by the convective Darrieus-Landau (DL) instability. However, good agreement in describing function phase predictions is seen as the ROM captures the transit time of wrinkles through the flame correctly. Also, good agreement is seen for both magnitude and phase of the flame response, for large forcing amplitudes, at frequencies where the DL instability has a minimal influence. Thus, the present ROM can predict flame response as long as the DL instability, caused by gas expansion at the flame front, does not significantly alter flame front perturbation amplitudes as they traverse the flame. (C) 2012 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

System reliability of randomly vibrating structures: Computational modeling and laboratory testing

The problem of determination of system reliability of randomly vibrating structures arises in many application areas of engineering. We discuss in this paper approaches based on Monte Carlo simulations and laboratory testing to tackle problems of time variant system reliability estimation. The strategy we adopt is based on the application of Girsanov's transformation to the governing stochastic differential equations which enables estimation of probability of failure with significantly reduced number of samples than what is needed in a direct simulation study. Notably, we show that the ideas from Girsanov's transformation based Monte Carlo simulations can be extended to conduct laboratory testing to assess system reliability of engineering structures with reduced number of samples and hence with reduced testing times. Illustrative examples include computational studies on a 10 degree of freedom nonlinear system model and laboratory/computational investigations on road load response of an automotive system tested on a four post Lest rig. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Piezocomposites using Variational Asymptotic Method

This work presents the development of piezocomposites made up of Macro Fiber Composites (MFCs) for aerospace applications and specifically involves, their computational analysis, material characterization and certain parametric studies. MFC was developed by NASA Langley Research Center in 1996 and currently is being distributed by Smart Material Co. 1] worldwide and finds applications both as an actuator as well as for sensor in various engineering applications. In this work, MFC is being modeled as an actuator and a theoretical formulation based on Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM) 2] is presented to analyse the laminates made up of MFCs. VAM minimizes the total electro-mechanical energy for the MFC laminate and approaches the exact solution asymptotically by making use of certain small parameters inherent to the problem through dimensional reduction. VAM provides closed form solutions for 1D constitutive law, recovery relations of warpings, 3D stress/strain fields and displacements and hence an ideal tool for carrying out parametric and design studies in such applications. VAM is geometrically exact and offers rigorous material characterization through cross-sectional analysis and dimensional reduction.

A Cause and Effect Analysis of Motion Trajectories for Modeling Actions

An action is typically composed of different parts of the object moving in particular sequences. The presence of different motions (represented as a 1D histogram) has been used in the traditional bag-of-words (BoW) approach for recognizing actions. However the interactions among the motions also form a crucial part of an action. Different object-parts have varying degrees of interactions with the other parts during an action cycle. It is these interactions we want to quantify in order to bring in additional information about the actions. In this paper we propose a causality based approach for quantifying the interactions to aid action classification. Granger causality is used to compute the cause and effect relationships for pairs of motion trajectories of a video. A 2D histogram descriptor for the video is constructed using these pairwise measures. Our proposed method of obtaining pairwise measures for videos is also applicable for large datasets. We have conducted experiments on challenging action recognition databases such as HMDB51 and UCF50 and shown that our causality descriptor helps in encoding additional information regarding the actions and performs on par with the state-of-the art approaches. Due to the complementary nature, a further increase in performance can be observed by combining our approach with state-of-the-art approaches.

COUPLED OPTICAL-THERMAL-FLUID MODELING OF A DIRECTLY HEATED TUBULAR SOLAR RECEIVER FOR SUPERCRITICAL CO2 BRAYTON CYCLE

Recent studies have evaluated closed-loop supercritical carbon dioxide (s-CO2) Brayton cycles to be a higher energy density system in comparison to conventional superheated steam Rankine systems. At turbine inlet conditions of 923K and 25 MPa, high thermal efficiency (similar to 50%) can be achieved. Achieving these high efficiencies will make concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies a competitive alternative to current power generation methods. To incorporate a s-CO2 Brayton power cycle in a solar power tower system, the development of a solar receiver capable of providing an outlet temperature of 923 K (at 25 MPa) is necessary. The s-CO2 will need to increase in temperature by similar to 200 K as it passes through the solar receiver to satisfy the temperature requirements of a s-CO2 Brayton cycle with recuperation and recompression. In this study, an optical-thermal-fluid model was developed to design and evaluate a tubular receiver that will receive a heat input similar to 2 MWth from a heliostat field. The ray-tracing tool SolTrace was used to obtain the heat-flux distribution on the surfaces of the receiver. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling using the Discrete Ordinates (DO) radiation model was used to predict the temperature distribution and the resulting receiver efficiency. The effect of flow parameters, receiver geometry and radiation absorption by s-CO2 were studied. The receiver surface temperatures were found to be within the safe operational limit while exhibiting a receiver efficiency of similar to 85%.