A generalized geo-hazard warning system

An automated geo-hazard warning system is the need of the hour. It is integration of automation in hazard evaluation and warning communication. The primary objective of this paper is to explain a geo-hazard warning system based on Internet-resident concept and available cellular mobile infrastructure that makes use of geo-spatial data. The functionality of the system is modular in architecture having input, understanding, expert, output and warning modules. Thus, the system provides flexibility in integration between different types of hazard evaluation and communication systems leading to a generalized hazard warning system. The developed system has been validated for landslide hazard in Indian conditions. It has been realized through utilization of landslide causative factors, rainfall forecast from NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and knowledge base of landslide hazard intensity map and invokes the warning as warranted. The system evaluated hazard commensurate with expert evaluation within 5-6 % variability, and the warning message permeability has been found to be virtually instantaneous, with a maximum time lag recorded as 50 s, minimum of 10 s. So it could be concluded that a novel and stand-alone system for dynamic hazard warning has been developed and implemented. Such a handy system could be very useful in a densely populated country where people are unaware of the impending hazard.

Review of Geohazard Warning Systems toward Development of a Popular Usage Geohazard Warning Communication System

The advent and evolution of geohazard warning systems is a very interesting study. The two broad fields that are immediately visible are that of geohazard evaluation and subsequent warning dissemination. Evidently, the latter field lacks any systematic study or standards. Arbitrarily organized and vague data and information on warning techniques create confusion and indecision. The purpose of this review is to try and systematize the available bulk of information on warning systems so that meaningful insights can be derived through decidable flowcharts, and a developmental process can be undertaken. Hence, the methods and technologies for numerous geohazard warning systems have been assessed by putting them into suitable categories for better understanding of possible ways to analyze their efficacy as well as shortcomings. By establishing a classification scheme based on extent, control, time period, and advancements in technology, the geohazard warning systems available in any literature could be comprehensively analyzed and evaluated. Although major advancements have taken place in geohazard warning systems in recent times, they have been lacking a complete purpose. Some systems just assess the hazard and wait for other means to communicate, and some are designed only for communication and wait for the hazard information to be provided, which usually is after the mishap. Primarily, systems are left at the mercy of administrators and service providers and are not in real time. An integrated hazard evaluation and warning dissemination system could solve this problem. Warning systems have also suffered from complexity of nature, requirement of expert-level monitoring, extensive and dedicated infrastructural setups, and so on. The user community, which would greatly appreciate having a convenient, fast, and generalized warning methodology, is surveyed in this review. The review concludes with the future scope of research in the field of hazard warning systems and some suggestions for developing an efficient mechanism toward the development of an automated integrated geohazard warning system. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000078. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Data acquisition and processing at ocean bottom for a Tsunami warning system

The design and development of a Bottom Pressure Recorder for a Tsunami Early Warning System is described here. The special requirements that it should satisfy for the specific application of deployment at ocean bed and pressure monitoring of the water column above are dealt with. A high-resolution data digitization and low circuit power consumption are typical ones. The implementation details of the data sensing and acquisition part to meet these are also brought out. The data processing part typically encompasses a Tsunami detection algorithm that should detect an event of significance in the background of a variety of periodic and aperiodic noise signals. Such an algorithm and its simulation are presented. Further, the results of sea trials carried out on the system off the Chennai coast are presented. The high quality and fidelity of the data prove that the system design is robust despite its low cost and with suitable augmentations, is ready for a full-fledged deployment at ocean bed. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.