Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Damage assessment of structures with uncertainty by using mode-shape curvatures and fuzzy logic

Uncertainties associated with the structural model and measured vibration data may lead to unreliable damage detection. In this paper, we show that geometric and measurement uncertainty cause considerable problem in damage assessment which can be alleviated by using a fuzzy logic-based approach for damage detection. Curvature damage factor (CDF) of a tapered cantilever beam are used as damage indicators. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is used to study the changes in the damage indicator due to uncertainty in the geometric properties of the beam. Variation in these CDF measures due to randomness in structural parameter, further contaminated with measurement noise, are used for developing and testing a fuzzy logic system (FLS). Results show that the method correctly identifies both single and multiple damages in the structure. For example, the FLS detects damage with an average accuracy of about 95 percent in a beam having geometric uncertainty of 1 percent COV and measurement noise of 10 percent in single damage scenario. For multiple damage case, the FLS identifies damages in the beam with an average accuracy of about 94 percent in the presence of above mentioned uncertainties. The paper brings together the disparate areas of probabilistic analysis and fuzzy logic to address uncertainty in structural damage detection.

A method for Estimating the Degree of Uncertainty With Respect to Life Cycle Assessment During Design

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to estimate a product's environmental impact. Using LCA during the earlier stages of design may produce erroneous results since information available on the product's lifecycle is typically incomplete at these stages. The resulting uncertainty must be accounted for in the decision-making process. This paper proposes a method for estimating the environmental impact of a product's life cycle and the associated degree of uncertainty of that impact using information generated during the design process. Total impact is estimated based on aggregation of individual product life cycle processes impacts. Uncertainty estimation is based on assessing the mismatch between the information required and the information available about the product life cycle in each uncertainty category, as well as their integration. The method is evaluated using pre-defined scenarios with varying uncertainty. DOI: 10.1115/1.4002163]

Material uncertainty effect on vibration control of smart composite plate using polynomial chaos expansion

Polynomial Chaos Expansion with Latin Hypercube sampling is used to study the effect of material uncertainty on vibration control of a smart composite plate with piezoelectric sensors/actuators. Composite material properties and piezoelectric coefficients are considered as independent and normally distributed random variables. Numerical results show substantial variation in structural dynamic response due to material uncertainty of active vibration control system. This change in response due to material uncertainty can be compensated by actively tuning the feedback control system. Numerical results also show variation in dispersion of dynamic characteristics and control parameters with respect to ply angle and stacking sequence.

Gibbs Energy of Formation of MnO: Measurement and Assessment

Based on the measurements of Alcock and Zador, Grundy et al. estimated an uncertainty of the order of +/- 5 kJ mol(-1) for the standard Gibbs energy of formation of MnO in a recent assessment. Since the evaluation of thermodynamic data for the higher oxides Mn3O4, Mn2O3, and MnO2 depends on values for MnO, a redetermination of its Gibbs energy of formation was undertaken in the temperature range from 875 to 1300 K using a solid-state electrochemical cell incorporating yttria-doped thoria (YDT) as the solid electrolyte and Fe + Fe1-delta O as the reference electrode. The cell can be presented as Pt, Mn + MnO/YDT/Fe + Fe1+delta O, Pt Since the metals Fe and Mn undergo phase transitions in the temperature range of measurement, the reversible emf of the cell is represented by the three linear segments. Combining the emf with the oxygen potential for the reference electrode, the standard Gibbs energy of formation of MnO from alpha-Mn and gaseous diatomic oxygen in the temperature range from 875 to 980 K is obtained as: Delta G(f)(o)/Jmol(-1)(+/- 250) = -385624 + 73.071T From 980 to 1300 K the Gibbs energy of formation of MnO from beta-Mn and oxygen gas is given by: Delta G(f)(o)/Jmol(-1)(+/- 250) = -387850 + 75.36T The new data are in excellent agreement with the earlier measurements of Alcock and Zador. Grundy et al. incorrectly analyzed the data of Alcock and Zador showing relatively large difference (+/- 5 kJ mol(-1)) in Gibbs energies of MnO from their two cells with Fe + Fe1-delta O and Ni + NiO as reference electrodes. Thermodynamic data for MnO is reassessed in the light of the new measurements. A table of refined thermodynamic data for MnO from 298.15 to 2000 K is presented.

Stability of CU(2)Ln(2)O(5) compounds - Comparison, assessment and systematics

Phase diagram studies show that at ambient pressure only one ternary oxide, Cu(2)Ln(2)O(5), is stable in the ternary systems Cu-Ln-O (Ln = Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu) at high temperatures. The crystal structure of Cu(2)Ln(2)O(5) can be described as a zig-zag arrangement of one-dimensional Cu2O5 chains parallel to-the a-axis with Ln atoms occupying distorted octahedral sites between these chains. Four sets of emf measurements on Gibbs energy of formation of Cu(2)Ln(2)O(5) (Ln = Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu; Y) from component binary oxides and one set of high-temperature solution calorimetric data on enthalpy of formation have been reported in the literature. Except for Cu2Y2O5, the measured values for the Gibbs energies of formation of all other Cu(2)Ln(2)O(5) compounds fall in a narrow band (+/-1 kJ mol(-1)) and indicate a regular increase in stability with decreasing ionic radius of the lanthanide ion. The values for the second law enthalpy of formation, derived from the temperature dependence of emf obtained in different studies, show larger differences, as high as 25 kJ mol(-1) for Cu2Tm2O5. Though associated with an uncertainty of +/-4 kJ mol(-1), the calorimetric measurements help to identify the best set of emf data. The trends in thermodynamic data correlate well with the global instability index (GII) based on the overall deviation from the valence sum rule. Low values for the index calculated from crystallographic information indicate higher stability. Higher values are indicative of the larger stress in the structure.

Energy-insensitive Guidance of Solid Motor Propelled Long Range Flight Vehicles Using MPSP and Dynamic Inversion

A energy-insensitive explicit guidance design is proposed in this paper by appending newlydeveloped nonlinear model predictive static programming technique with dynamic inversion, which render a closed form solution of the necessary guidance command update. The closed form nature of the proposed optimal guidance scheme suppressed the computational difficulties, and facilitate realtime solution. The guidance law is successfully verified in a solid motor propelled long range flight vehicle, for which developing an effective guidance law is more difficult as compared to a liquid engine propelled vehicle, mainly because of the absence of thrust cutoff facility. The scheme guides the vehicle appropriately so that it completes the mission within a tight error bound assuming that the starting point of the second stage to be a deterministic point beyond the atmosphere. The simulation results demonstrate its ability to intercept the target, even with an uncertainty of greater than 10% in the burnout time

Constraining complex aquifer geometry with geophysics (2-D ERT and MRS measurements) for stochastic modelling of groundwater flow

Stochastic modelling is a useful way of simulating complex hard-rock aquifers as hydrological properties (permeability, porosity etc.) can be described using random variables with known statistics. However, very few studies have assessed the influence of topological uncertainty (i.e. the variability of thickness of conductive zones in the aquifer), probably because it is not easy to retrieve accurate statistics of the aquifer geometry, especially in hard rock context. In this paper, we assessed the potential of using geophysical surveys to describe the geometry of a hard rock-aquifer in a stochastic modelling framework. The study site was a small experimental watershed in South India, where the aquifer consisted of a clayey to loamy-sandy zone (regolith) underlain by a conductive fissured rock layer (protolith) and the unweathered gneiss (bedrock) at the bottom. The spatial variability of the thickness of the regolith and fissured layers was estimated by electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles, which were performed along a few cross sections in the watershed. For stochastic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, the generated random layer thickness was made conditional to the available data from the geophysics. In order to simulate steady state flow in the irregular domain with variable geometry, we used an isoparametric finite element method to discretize the flow equation over an unstructured grid with irregular hexahedral elements. The results indicated that the spatial variability of the layer thickness had a significant effect on reducing the simulated effective steady seepage flux and that using the conditional simulations reduced the uncertainty of the simulated seepage flux. As a conclusion, combining information on the aquifer geometry obtained from geophysical surveys with stochastic modelling is a promising methodology to improve the simulation of groundwater flow in complex hard-rock aquifers. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of TRMM PR Sampling Error Over a Subtropical Basin Using Bootstrap Technique

Quantitative use of satellite-derived rainfall products for various scientific applications often requires them to be accompanied with an error estimate. Rainfall estimates inferred from low earth orbiting satellites like the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) will be subjected to sampling errors of nonnegligible proportions owing to the narrow swath of satellite sensors coupled with a lack of continuous coverage due to infrequent satellite visits. The authors investigate sampling uncertainty of seasonal rainfall estimates from the active sensor of TRMM, namely, Precipitation Radar (PR), based on 11 years of PR 2A25 data product over the Indian subcontinent. In this paper, a statistical bootstrap technique is investigated to estimate the relative sampling errors using the PR data themselves. Results verify power law scaling characteristics of relative sampling errors with respect to space-time scale of measurement. Sampling uncertainty estimates for mean seasonal rainfall were found to exhibit seasonal variations. To give a practical example of the implications of the bootstrap technique, PR relative sampling errors over a subtropical river basin of Mahanadi, India, are examined. Results reveal that the bootstrap technique incurs relative sampling errors < 33% (for the 2 degrees grid), < 36% (for the 1 degrees grid), < 45% (for the 0.5 degrees grid), and < 57% (for the 0.25 degrees grid). With respect to rainfall type, overall sampling uncertainty was found to be dominated by sampling uncertainty due to stratiform rainfall over the basin. The study compares resulting error estimates to those obtained from latin hypercube sampling. Based on this study, the authors conclude that the bootstrap approach can be successfully used for ascertaining relative sampling errors offered by TRMM-like satellites over gauged or ungauged basins lacking in situ validation data. This technique has wider implications for decision making before incorporating microwave orbital data products in basin-scale hydrologic modeling.

Remotely sensed debris thickness mapping of Bara Shigri Glacier, Indian Himalaya

Despite the important role of supraglacial debris in ablation, knowledge of debris thickness on Himalayan glaciers is sparse. A recently developed method based on reanalysis data and thermal band satellite imagery has proved to be potentially suitable for debris thickness estimation without the need for detailed field data. In this study, we further develop the method and discuss possibilities and limitations arising from its application to a glacier in the Himalaya with scarce in situ data. Surface temperature patterns are consistent for 13 scenes of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Landsat 7 imagery and correlate well with incoming shortwave radiation and air temperature. We use an energy-balance approach to subtract these radiation or air temperature effects, in order to estimate debris thickness patterns as a function of surface temperature. Both incoming shortwave and longwave radiation are estimated with reasonable accuracy when applying parameterizations and reanalysis data. However, the model likely underestimates debris thickness, probably due to incorrect representation of vertical debris temperature profiles, the rate of heat storage and turbulent sensible heat flux. Moreover, the uncertainty of the result was found to increase significantly with thicker debris, a promising result since ablation is enhanced by thin debris of 1-2 cm.

A modified sulphide capacity function

The sulphide capacity as originally defined by Fincham and Richardson is a strong function of composition in pseudobinary oxide melts of interest in extractive metallurgy. From an analysis of data available in the literature, it is shown that sulphide capacity is directly proportional to the activity of the basic oxide in the melt, within the uncertainty of experimental data. A single parameter is sufficient to describe the sulphide capacity of a binary slag system under isothermal and isobaric conditions. The correlation indicates that the activity coefficient of the sulphide ion or the neutral base metal sulphide dissolved in the melt is independent of composition in pseudobinary melts within experimental uncertainty. Structural variations in the melt with composition do not seem to affect the activity coefficient of the sulphide. A modified sulphide capacity function is defined which makes the treatment more elegant and greatly simplifies data storage and retrieval. The modified function is not based on any model for the melt.

A Hybrid Energy-insensitive Explicit Guidance Scheme for Long Range Flight Vehicles with Solid Motors

Combining the newly developed nonlinear model predictive static programming technique with null range direction concept, a novel explicit energy-insensitive guidance design method is presented in this paper for long range flight vehicles, which leads to a closed form solution of the necessary guidance command update. Owing to the closed form nature, it does not lead to computational difficulties and the proposed optimal guidance algorithm can be implemented online. The guidance law is verified in a solid motor propelled long range flight vehicle, for which coming up with an effective guidance law is more difficult as compared to a liquid engine propelled vehicle (mainly because of the absence of thrust cutoff facility). Assuming the starting point of the second stage to be a deterministic point beyond the atmosphere, the scheme guides the vehicle properly so that it completes the mission within a tight error bound. The simulation results demonstrate its ability to intercept the target, even with an uncertainty of greater than 10% in burnout time.

Methodology for Pavement Design Reliability and Back Analysis Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

Given the increasing cost of designing and building new highway pavements, reliability analysis has become vital to ensure that a given pavement performs as expected in the field. Recognizing the importance of failure analysis to safety, reliability, performance, and economy, back analysis has been employed in various engineering applications to evaluate the inherent uncertainties of the design and analysis. The probabilistic back analysis method formulated on Bayes' theorem and solved using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm has proved to be highly efficient to address this issue. It is also quite flexible and is applicable to any type of prior information. In this paper, this method has been used to back-analyze the parameters that influence the pavement life and to consider the uncertainty of the mechanistic-empirical pavement design model. The load-induced pavement structural responses (e.g., stresses, strains, and deflections) used to predict the pavement life are estimated using the response surface methodology model developed based on the results of linear elastic analysis. The failure criteria adopted for the analysis were based on the factor of safety (FOS), and the study was carried out for different sample sizes and jumping distributions to estimate the most robust posterior statistics. From the posterior statistics of the case considered, it was observed that after approximately 150 million standard axle load repetitions, the mean values of the pavement properties decrease as expected, with a significant decrease in the values of the elastic moduli of the expected layers. An analysis of the posterior statistics indicated that the parameters that contribute significantly to the pavement failure were the moduli of the base and surface layer, which is consistent with the findings from other studies. After the back analysis, the base modulus parameters show a significant decrease of 15.8% and the surface layer modulus a decrease of 3.12% in the mean value. The usefulness of the back analysis methodology is further highlighted by estimating the design parameters for specified values of the factor of safety. The analysis revealed that for the pavement section considered, a reliability of 89% and 94% can be achieved by adopting FOS values of 1.5 and 2, respectively. The methodology proposed can therefore be effectively used to identify the parameters that are critical to pavement failure in the design of pavements for specified levels of reliability. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000455. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Representation and properties of para-Bose oscillator operators. II. Coherent states and the minimum uncertainty states

The energy, position, and momentum eigenstates of a para-Bose oscillator system were considered in paper I. Here we consider the Bargmann or the analytic function description of the para-Bose system. This brings in, in a natural way, the coherent states ||z;alpha> defined as the eigenstates of the annihilation operator ?. The transformation functions relating this description to the energy, position, and momentum eigenstates are explicitly obtained. Possible resolution of the identity operator using coherent states is examined. A particular resolution contains two integrals, one containing the diagonal basis ||z;alpha><−z;alpha||. We briefly consider the normal and antinormal ordering of the operators and their diagonal and discrete diagonal coherent state approximations. The problem of constructing states with a minimum value of the product of the position and momentum uncertainties and the possible alpha dependence of this minimum value is considered. Journal of Mathematical Physics is copyrighted by The American Institute of Physics.