Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold's SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold's and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold's SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold's SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold's SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.

On the epochal variation of intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea

During recent years, an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon tropical cyclones (TCs) is observed over the Arabian Sea. This study suggests that this increase is due to epochal variability in the intensity of TCs and is associated with epochal variability in the storm-ambient vertical wind shear and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP). There is a significant increase (0.53kJcm(-2)year(-1)) of TCHP during recent years. The warmer upper ocean helps TCs to sustain or increase their intensity by an uninterrupted supply of sensible and latent heat fluxes from the ocean surface to the atmosphere.

A numerical study of the role of the vertical structure of vorticity during tropical cyclone genesis

An eight-level axisymmetric model with simple parameterizations for clouds and the atmospheric boundary layer was developed to examine the evolution of vortices that are precursors to tropical cyclones. The effect of vertical distributions of vorticity, especially that arising from a merger of mid-level vortices, was studied by us to provide support for a new vortex-merger theory of tropical cyclone genesis. The basic model was validated with the analytical results available for the spin-down of axisymmetric vortices. With the inclusion of the cloud and boundary layer parameterizations, the evolution of deep vortices into hurricanes and the subsequent decay are simulated quite well. The effects of several parameters such as the initial vortex strength, radius of maximum winds, sea-surface temperature and latitude (Coriolis parameter) on the evolution were examined. A new finding is the manner in which mid-level vortices of the same strength decay and how, on simulated merger of these mid-level vortices, the resulting vortex amplifies to hurricane strength in a realistic time frame. The importance of sea-surface temperature on the evolution of full vortices was studied and explained. Also it was found that the strength of the surface vortex determines the time taken by the deep vortex to amplify to hurricane strength.

SODAR observations of inertia- gravity waves in the atmospheric boundary layer during the passage of tropical cyclone

This study reports characteristics of inertia-gravity waves (IGWs) in the atmospheric boundary layer during the passage of Tropical Cylone-03B, using the Doppler Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) observations at the Indian tropical station of Gadanki (13.45 degrees N, 79.2 degrees E; near the east coast of India). Wavelet analysis of horizontal winds indicates significant wave motion (60h) near the characteristic inertial period. The hodograph analysis of the filtered winds shows an anti-cyclonic turning of horizontal wind with height and time, indicating the presence of IGW. This study finds important implications in boundary layer dynamics during the passage of tropical cyclones.

Cyclone-induced mixing does not cool SST in the post-monsoon north Bay of Bengal

High-resolution data from the TRMM satellite shows that sea surface temperature (SST) cools by 3 degrees C under the tracks of pre-monsoon tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. However, even the strongest post-monsoon cyclones do not cool the open north Bay of Bengal. In this region, a shallow layer of freshwater from river runoff and monsoon rain caps a deep warm layer. Therefore, storm-induced mixing is not deep, and it entrains warm subsurface water. It is possible that the hydrography of the post-monsoon north Bay favours intense cyclones.

Structural characteristics of a giant tropical liana and its mode of canopy spread in an alien environment

To circumvent the practical difficulties in research on tropical rainforest lianas in their natural habitat due to prevailing weather conditions, dense camouflaging vegetation and problems in transporting equipment for experimental investigations, Entada pursaetha DC (syn. Entada scandens Benth., Leguminosae) was grown inside a research campus in a dry subtropical environment. A solitary genet has attained a gigantic size in 17 years, infesting crowns of semi-evergreen trees growing in an area roughly equivalent to 1.6 ha. It has used aerially formed, cable-like stolons for navigating and spreading its canopy across tree gaps. Some of its parts which had remained unseen in its natural habitat due to dense vegetation are described. The attained size of this liana in a climatically different environment raises the question as to why it is restricted to evergreen rainforests. Some research problems for which this liana will be useful are pointed out.

Species-area and species-individual relationships for tropical trees: A comparison of three 50-ha plots

1 Species-accumulation curves for woody plants were calculated in three tropical forests, based on fully mapped 50-ha plots in wet, old-growth forest in Peninsular Malaysia, in moist, old-growth forest in central Panama, and in dry, previously logged forest in southern India. A total of 610 000 stems were identified to species and mapped to < Im accuracy. Mean species number and stem number were calculated in quadrats as small as 5 m x 5 m to as large as 1000 m x 500 m, for a variety of stem sizes above 10 mm in diameter. Species-area curves were generated by plotting species number as a function of quadrat size; species-individual curves were generated from the same data, but using stem number as the independent variable rather than area. 2 Species-area curves had different forms for stems of different diameters, but species-individual curves were nearly independent of diameter class. With < 10(4) stems, species-individual curves were concave downward on log-log plots, with curves from different forests diverging, but beyond about 104 stems, the log-log curves became nearly linear, with all three sites having a similar slope. This indicates an asymptotic difference in richness between forests: the Malaysian site had 2.7 times as many species as Panama, which in turn was 3.3 times as rich as India. 3 Other details of the species-accumulation relationship were remarkably similar between the three sites. Rectangular quadrats had 5-27% more species than square quadrats of the same area, with longer and narrower quadrats increasingly diverse. Random samples of stems drawn from the entire 50 ha had 10-30% more species than square quadrats with the same number of stems. At both Pasoh and BCI, but not Mudumalai. species richness was slightly higher among intermediate-sized stems (50-100mm in diameter) than in either smaller or larger sizes, These patterns reflect aggregated distributions of individual species, plus weak density-dependent forces that tend to smooth the species abundance distribution and 'loosen' aggregations as stems grow. 4 The results provide support for the view that within each tree community, many species have their abundance and distribution guided more by random drift than deterministic interactions. The drift model predicts that the species-accumulation curve will have a declining slope on a log-log plot, reaching a slope of O.1 in about 50 ha. No other model of community structure can make such a precise prediction. 5 The results demonstrate that diversity studies based on different stem diameters can be compared by sampling identical numbers of stems. Moreover, they indicate that stem counts < 1000 in tropical forests will underestimate the percentage difference in species richness between two diverse sites. Fortunately, standard diversity indices (Fisher's sc, Shannon-Wiener) captured diversity differences in small stem samples more effectively than raw species richness, but both were sample size dependent. Two nonparametric richness estimators (Chao. jackknife) performed poorly, greatly underestimating true species richness.

Tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstruction over northern Vietnam from Fokienia hodginsii: eighteenth century mega-drought and tropical Pacific influence

We present here the first statistically calibrated and verified tree-ring reconstruction of climate from continental Southeast Asia.The reconstructed variable is March-May (MAM) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) based on ring widths from 22 trees (42 radial cores) of rare and long-lived conifer, Fokienia hodginsii (Po Mu as locally called) from northern Vietnam. This is the first published tree ring chronology from Vietnam as well as the first for this species. Spanning 535 years, this is the longest cross-dated tree-ring series yet produced from continental Southeast Asia. Response analysis revealed that the annual growth of Fokienia at this site was mostly governed by soil moisture in the pre-monsoon season. The reconstruction passed the calibration-verification tests commonly used in dendroclimatology, and revealed two prominent periods of drought in the mid-eighteenth and late-nineteenth enturies. The former lasted nearly 30 years and was concurrent with a similar drought over northwestern Thailand inferred from teak rings, suggesting a ``mega-drought'' extending across Indochina in the eighteenth century. Both of our reconstructed droughts are consistent with the periods of warm sea surface temperature (SST)anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Spatial correlation analyses with global SST indicated that ENSO-like anomalies might play a role in modulating droughts over the region, with El Nio (warm) phases resulting in reduced rainfall. However, significant correlation was also seen with SST over the Indian Ocean and the north Pacific,suggesting that ENSO is not the only factor affecting the climate of the area. Spectral analyses revealed significant peaks in the range of 53.9-78.8 years as well as in the ENSO-variability range of 2.0 to 3.2 years.

Effect of rodents on seed fate of five hornbill-dispersed tree species in a tropical forest in north-east India

Hornbills are important dispersers of a wide range of tree species. Many of these species bear fruits with large, lipid-rich seeds that could attract terrestrial rodents. Rodents have multiple effects on seed fates, many of which remain poorly understood in the Palaeotropics. The role of terrestrial rodents was investigated by tracking seed fate of five horn bill-dispersed tree species in a tropical forest in north-cast India. Seeds were marked inside and outside of exclosures below 6-12 parent fruiting trees (undispersed seed rain) and six hornbill nest trees (a post-dispersal site). Rodent visitors and seed removal ere monitored using camera traps. Our findings suggest that several rodent species. especially two species of porcupine were major on-site seed predators. Scatter-hoarding was rare (1.4%). Seeds at hornbill nest trees had lower survival compared with parent fruiting trees, indicating that clumped dispersal by hornbills may not necessarily improve seed survival. Seed survival in the presence and absence of rodents varied with tree species. Some species (e.g. Polyalthia simiarum) showed no difference, others (e.g. Dysoxylum binectariferum) experienced up to a 64%. decrease in survival in the presence of rodents. The differing magnitude of seed predation by rodents can have significant consequences at the seed establishment stage.

Phenology and seasonality in the tropical deciduous forest of Bandipur, South India

A long term study on the phenology of tree species of tropical dry deciduous forest ecosystem of Bandipur, South India has revealed patterns of strong seasonality with respect to leaf and fruit initiation as well as their abscission. The distribution of the duration of the various phenological events was observed to be skewed and there was little interannual variation in events such as flowering and fruiting. This suggests that there are, perhaps, no mast flowering or fruiting species present in the deciduous forests. The phenological changes appear to influence the food, feeding, movement patterns and sociality of the major mammals of this dry deciduous ecosystem.

Late Quaternary vegetational and climatic changes from tropical peats in southern India - An extended record up to 40,000 years BP

Stable carbon isotope ratios of peats dated (by C-14) back to 40 kyr BP from the montane region (> 1800 m asl) of the Nilgiris, southern India, reflect changes in the relative proportions of C3 and C4 plant types, which are influenced by soil moisture (and hence monsoonal precipitation), From prior to 40 kyr BP until 28 kyr BP, a general decline in delta(13)C values from about - 14 per mil to - 19 per mil suggests increased dominance of C3 plants concurrent with increasingly moist conditions, During 28-18 kyr BP there seems relatively little change with delta(13) C of - 19 to - 18 per mil, At about 16 kyr BP a sharp reversal in delta(13)C to a peak of - 14.7 per mil indicates a clear predominance of C4 vegetation associated with arid conditions, possibly during or just after the Last Glacial Maximum, A moist phase at about 9 kyr BP (the Holocene Optimum) with dominance of C3 vegetation type is observed, while arid conditions are re-established during 5-2 kyr BP with an overall dominance of C4 vegetation, New data do not support the occurrence of a moist phase coinciding with the Mediaeval Warm Period (at 0.6 kyr BP) as suggested earlier, Overall, the climate and vegetation in the high altitude regions of the southern Indian tropics seem to have responded to past global climatic changes, and this is consistent with other evidences from India and other tropical regions.

Designing Dense Radar Networks for Weather Surveillance in Tropical Regions.

Design considerations are presented for a dense weather radar network to support multiple services including aviation. Conflicts, tradeoffs and optimization issues in the context of operation in a tropical region are brought out. The upcoming Indian radar network is used as a case study. Algorithms for data mosaicing are briefly outlined.

The line transect method for estimating densities of large mammals in a tropical deciduous forest: An evaluation of models and field experiments

We have evaluated techniques of estimating animal density through direct counts using line transects during 1988-92 in the tropical deciduous forests of Mudumalai Sanctuary in southern India for four species of large herbivorous mammals, namely, chital (Axis axis), sambar (Cervus unicolor), Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and gaur (Bos gauras). Density estimates derived from the Fourier Series and the Half-Normal models consistently had the lowest coefficient of variation. These two models also generated similar mean density estimates. For the Fourier Series estimator, appropriate cut-off widths for analysing line transect data for the four species are suggested. Grouping data into various distance classes did not produce any appreciable differences in estimates of mean density or their variances, although model fit is generally better when data are placed in fewer groups. The sampling effort needed to achieve a desired precision (coefficient of variation) in the density estimate is derived. A sampling effort of 800 km of transects returned a 10% coefficient of variation on estimate for chital; for the other species a higher effort was needed to achieve this level of precision. There was no statistically significant relationship between detectability of a group and the size of the group for any species. Density estimates along roads were generally significantly different from those in the interior af the forest, indicating that road-side counts may not be appropriate for most species.

Rainfall changes over tropical montane cloud forests of southern Western Ghats, India

The southern Western Ghats tropical montane cloud forest sites (Gavi, Periyar, High wavys and Venniyar), which are characterized by frequent or seasonal cloud cover at the vegetation level, are considered one of the most threatened ecosystems in India and the world. Three out of four montane cloud forest sites studied in the southern Western Ghats had experienced diminishing trends of seasonal average and total rainfall, especially during summer monsoon season. The highest level of reduction for summer monsoon season was observed at Gavi rainforest station (>20 mm/14 years) in Kerala followed by Venniyar (>20 mm/20 years) site in Tamil Nadu. Average annual and total precipitation increased during the study period irrespective of the seasons over Periyar area, and the greatest values were recorded for season 2 (>25 mm/28 years). Positive trends for winter monsoon rainfall has been observed for three stations (Periyar, High wavys and Venniyar) except Gavi, and the trend was positive and significant (90%) for Periyar and High wavys. Increase in summer monsoon rainfall was observed for Periyar site and the trend was found to be significant (95%).