Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India

Present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of annual, monthly and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures (t(max), t(min)) in India. Recent trends in annual, monthly, winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon extreme temperatures (t(max), t(min)) have been analyzed for three time slots viz. 1901-2003,1948-2003 and 1970-2003. For this purpose, time series of extreme temperatures of India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions, viz. Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP) are considered. Rigorous trend detection analysis has been exercised using variety of non-parametric methods which consider the effect of serial correlation during analysis. During the last three decades minimum temperature trend is present in All India as well as in all temperature homogeneous regions of India either at annual or at any seasonal level (winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon). Results agree with the earlier observation that the trend in minimum temperature is significant in the last three decades over India (Kothawale et al., 2010). Sequential MK test reveals that most of the trend both in maximum and minimum temperature began after 1970 either in annual or seasonal levels. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Origin of a trend in ECMWF wind analysis and its objective removal

The suitability of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational wind analysis for the period 1980-1991 for studying interannual variability is examined. The changes in the model and the analysis procedure are shown to give rise to a systematic and significant trend in the large scale circulation features. A new method of removing the systematic errors at all levels is presented using multivariate EOF analysis. Objectively detrended analysis of the three-dimensional wind field agrees well with independent Florida State University (FSU) wind analysis at the surface. It is shown that the interannual variations in the detrended surface analysis agree well in amplitude as well as spatial patterns with those of the FSU analysis. Therefore, the detrended analyses at other levels as well are expected to be useful for studies of variability and predictability at interannual time scales. It is demonstrated that this trend in the wind field is due to the shift in the climatologies from the period 1980-1985 to the period 1986-1991.

CFD Analysis of conjugate natural convection in a vertical annulus

Conjugate natural convection in a vertical annulus with a centrally located vertical heat generating rod is studied numerically. The governing equations are discretized on a staggered mesh and are solved using a pressure-correction algorithm. A parametric study is performed by varying the Grashof number, aspect ratio, and the solid-to-fluid thermal conductivity ratio over wide ranges with the Prandtl number fixed at 0.7. Results are presented for the variation of several quantities of interest such as the local Nusselt numbers on the inner and outer boundaries, the axial variation of the centerline and interface temperatures, maximum solid, average solid and average interface temperature variations with Grashof number, and the average Nusselt number variation for the inner and outer boundaries with Grashof number. The average Nusselt number from the conjugate analysis is found to be between the Nusselt numbers of the isothermal and the isoflux cases. The average Nusselt numbers on the inner and outer boundaries show an increasing trend with the Grashof number. Correlations are presented for the Nusselt number and the dimensionless temperatures of interest in terms of the parameters of the problem.

Review of continuum, finite element and hybrid techniques in the analysis of stress concentrations in structures

When a uniform flow of any nature is interrupted, the readjustment of the flow results in concentrations and rare-factions, so that the peak value of the flow parameter will be higher than that which an elementary computation would suggest. When stress flow in a structure is interrupted, there are stress concentrations. These are generally localized and often large, in relation to the values indicated by simple equilibrium calculations. With the advent of the industrial revolution, dynamic and repeated loading of materials had become commonplace in engine parts and fast moving vehicles of locomotion. This led to serious fatigue failures arising from stress concentrations. Also, many metal forming processes, fabrication techniques and weak-link type safety systems benefit substantially from the intelligent use or avoidance, as appropriate, of stress concentrations. As a result, in the last 80 years, the study and and evaluation of stress concentrations has been a primary objective in the study of solid mechanics. Exact mathematical analysis of stress concentrations in finite bodies presents considerable difficulty for all but a few problems of infinite fields, concentric annuli and the like, treated under the presumption of small deformation, linear elasticity. A whole series of techniques have been developed to deal with different classes of shapes and domains, causes and sources of concentration, material behaviour, phenomenological formulation, etc. These include real and complex functions, conformal mapping, transform techniques, integral equations, finite differences and relaxation, and, more recently, the finite element methods. With the advent of large high speed computers, development of finite element concepts and a good understanding of functional analysis, it is now, in principle, possible to obtain with economy satisfactory solutions to a whole range of concentration problems by intelligently combining theory and computer application. An example is the hybridization of continuum concepts with computer based finite element formulations. This new situation also makes possible a more direct approach to the problem of design which is the primary purpose of most engineering analyses. The trend would appear to be clear: the computer will shape the theory, analysis and design.

Asymptotic analysis for the coupled wavenumbers in an infinite fluid-filled flexible cylindrical shell: The beam mode

Using asymptotics, the coupled wavenumbers in an infinite fluid-filled flexible cylindrical shell vibrating in the beam mode (viz. circumferential wave order n = 1) are studied. Initially, the uncoupled wavenumbers of the acoustic fluid and the cylindrical shell structure are discussed. Simple closed form expressions for the structural wavenumbers (longitudinal, torsional and bending) are derived using asymptotic methods for low- and high-frequencies. It is found that at low frequencies the cylinder in the beam mode behaves like a Timoshenko beam. Next, the coupled dispersion equation of the system is rewritten in the form of the uncoupled dispersion equation of the structure and the acoustic fluid, with an added fluid-loading term involving a parameter mu due to the coupling. An asymptotic expansion involving mu is substituted in this equation. Analytical expressions are derived for the coupled wavenumbers (as modifications to the uncoupled wavenumbers) separately for low- and high-frequency ranges and further, within each frequency range, for large and small values of mu. Only the flexural wavenumber, the first rigid duct acoustic cut-on wavenumber and the first pressure-release acoustic cut-on wavenumber are considered. The general trend found is that for small mu, the coupled wavenumbers are close to the in vacuo structural wavenumber and the wavenumbers of the rigid-acoustic duct. With increasing mu, the perturbations increase, until the coupled wavenumbers are better identified as perturbations to the pressure-release wavenumbers. The systematic derivation for the separate cases of small and large mu gives more insight into the physics and helps to continuously track the wavenumber solutions as the fluid-loading parameter is varied from small to large values. Also, it is found that at any frequency where two wavenumbers intersect in the uncoupled analysis, there is no more an intersection in the coupled case, but a gap is created at that frequency. This method of asymptotics is simple to implement using a symbolic computation package (like Maple). (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An asymptotic analysis for the coupled dispersion characteristics of a structural acoustic waveguide

Analytical expressions are derived, using asymptotics, for the fluid-structure coupled wavenumbers in a one-dimensional (1-D) structural acoustic waveguide. The coupled dispersion equation of the system is rewritten in the form of the uncoupled dispersion equation with an added term due to the fluid-structure coupling. As a result of this coupling, the prior uncoupled structural and acoustic wavenumbers, now become coupled structural and acoustic wavenumbers. A fluid-loading parameter e, defined as the ratio of mass of fluid to mass of the structure per unit area, is introduced which when set to zero yields the uncoupled dispersion equation. The coupled wavenumber is then expressed in terms of an asymptotic series in e. Analytical expressions are found as e is varied from small to large values. Different asymptotic expansions are used for different frequency ranges with continuous transitions occurring between them. This systematic derivation helps to continuously track the wavenumber solutions as the fluid-loading parameter is varied from small to large values. Though the asymptotic expansion used is limited to the first-order correction factor, the results are close to the numerical results. A general trend is that a given wavenumber branch transits from a rigid-walled solution to a pressure-release solution with increasing E. Also, it is found that at any frequency where two wavenumbers intersect in the uncoupled analysis, there is no more an-intersection in the coupled case, but a gap is created at that frequency. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asymptotic analysis for the coupled wavenumbers in an infinite fluid-filled flexible cylindrical shell: The axisymmetric mode

The coupled wavenumbers of a fluid-filled flexible cylindrical shell vibrating in the axisymmetric mode are studied. The coupled dispersion equation of the system is rewritten in the form of the uncoupled dispersion equation of the structure and the acoustic fluid, with an added fluid-loading term involving a parameter e due to the coupling. Using the smallness of Poisson's ratio (v), a double-asymptotic expansion involving e and v 2 is substituted in this equation. Analytical expressions are derived for the coupled wavenumbers (for large and small values of E). Different asymptotic expansions are used for different frequency ranges with continuous transitions occurring between them. The wavenumber solutions are continuously tracked as e varies from small to large values. A general trend observed is that a given wavenumber branch transits from a rigidwalled solution to a pressure-release solution with increasing E. Also, it is found that at any frequency where two wavenumbers intersect in the uncoupled analysis, there is no more an intersection in the coupled case, but a gap is created at that frequency. Only the axisymmetric mode is considered. However, the method can be extended to the higher order modes.

Geoinformatics for Urbanisation and Urban Sprawl Pattern Analysis

Urbanisation is the increase in the population of cities in proportion to the region's rural population. Urbanisation in India is very rapid with urban population growing at around 2.3 percent per annum. Urban sprawl refers to the dispersed development along highways or surrounding the city and in rural countryside with implications such as loss of agricultural land, open space and ecologically sensitive habitats. Sprawl is thus a pattern and pace of land use in which the rate of land consumed for urban purposes exceeds the rate of population growth resulting in an inefficient and consumptive use of land and its associated resources. This unprecedented urbanisation trend due to burgeoning population has posed serious challenges to the decision makers in the city planning and management process involving plethora of issues like infrastructure development, traffic congestion, and basic amenities (electricity, water, and sanitation), etc. In this context, to aid the decision makers in following the holistic approaches in the city and urban planning, the pattern, analysis, visualization of urban growth and its impact on natural resources has gained importance. This communication, analyses the urbanisation pattern and trends using temporal remote sensing data based on supervised learning using maximum likelihood estimation of multivariate normal density parameters and Bayesian classification approach. The technique is implemented for Greater Bangalore – one of the fastest growing city in the World, with Landsat data of 1973, 1992 and 2000, IRS LISS-3 data of 1999, 2006 and MODIS data of 2002 and 2007. The study shows that there has been a growth of 466% in urban areas of Greater Bangalore across 35 years (1973 to 2007). The study unravels the pattern of growth in Greater Bangalore and its implication on local climate and also on the natural resources, necessitating appropriate strategies for the sustainable management.

Fracture analysis of concrete using singular fractal functions with lattice beam network and confirmation with acoustic emission study

In the present study singular fractal functions (SFF) were used to generate stress-strain plots for quasibrittle material like concrete and cement mortar and subsequently stress-strain plot of cement mortar obtained using SFF was used for modeling fracture process in concrete. The fracture surface of concrete is rough and irregular. The fracture surface of concrete is affected by the concrete's microstructure that is influenced by water cement ratio, grade of cement and type of aggregate 11-41. Also the macrostructural properties such as the size and shape of the specimen, the initial notch length and the rate of loading contribute to the shape of the fracture surface of concrete. It is known that concrete is a heterogeneous and quasi-brittle material containing micro-defects and its mechanical properties strongly relate to the presence of micro-pores and micro-cracks in concrete 11-41. The damage in concrete is believed to be mainly due to initiation and development of micro-defects with irregularity and fractal characteristics. However, repeated observations at various magnifications also reveal a variety of additional structures that fall between the `micro' and the `macro' and have not yet been described satisfactorily in a systematic manner [1-11,15-17]. The concept of singular fractal functions by Mosolov was used to generate stress-strain plot of cement concrete, cement mortar and subsequently the stress-strain plot of cement mortar was used in two-dimensional lattice model [28]. A two-dimensional lattice model was used to study concrete fracture by considering softening of matrix (cement mortar). The results obtained from simulations with lattice model show softening behavior of concrete and fairly agrees with the experimental results. The number of fractured elements are compared with the acoustic emission (AE) hits. The trend in the cumulative fractured beam elements in the lattice fracture simulation reasonably reflected the trend in the recorded AE measurements. In other words, the pattern in which AE hits were distributed around the notch has the same trend as that of the fractured elements around the notch which is in support of lattice model. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal landscape modelling for natural hazard vulnerability analysis in select watersheds of Central Western Ghats

Natural hazards such as landslides are triggered by numerous factors such as ground movements, rock falls, slope failure, debris flows, slope instability, etc. Changes in slope stability happen due to human intervention, anthropogenic activities, change in soil structure, loss or absence of vegetation (changes in land cover), etc. Loss of vegetation happens when the forest is fragmented due to anthropogenic activities. Hence land cover mapping with forest fragmentation can provide vital information for visualising the regions that require immediate attention from slope stability aspects. The main objective of this paper is to understand the rate of change in forest landscape from 1973 to 2004 through multi-sensor remote sensing data analysis. The forest fragmentation index presented here is based on temporal land use information and forest fragmentation model, in which the forest pixels are classified as patch, transitional, edge, perforated, and interior, that give a measure of forest continuity. The analysis carried out for five prominent watersheds of Uttara Kannada district– Aganashini, Bedthi, Kali, Sharavathi and Venkatpura revealed that interior forest is continuously decreasing while patch, transitional, edge and perforated forest show increasing trend. The effect of forest fragmentation on landslide occurrence was visualised by overlaying the landslide occurrence points on classified image and forest fragmentation map. The increasing patch and transitional forest on hill slopes are the areas prone to landslides, evident from the field verification, indicating that deforestation is a major triggering factor for landslides. This emphasises the need for immediate conservation measures for sustainable management of the landscape. Quantifying and describing land use - land cover change and fragmentation is crucial for assessing the effect of land management policies and environmental protection decisions.

Precision and long-term stability of clumped-isotope analysis of CO2 using a small-sector isotope ratio mass spectrometer

RATIONALE The ratio of the measured abundance of 13C18O bonding CO2 to its stochastic abundance, prescribed by the delta 13C and delta 18O values from a carbonate mineral, is sensitive to its growth temperature. Recently, clumped-isotope thermometry, which uses this ratio, has been adopted as a new tool to elucidate paleotemperatures quantitatively. METHODS Clumped isotopes in CO2 were measured with a small-sector isotope ratio mass spectrometer. CO2 samples digested from several kinds of calcium carbonates by phosphoric acid at 25 degrees C were purified using both cryogenic and gas-chromatographic separations, and their isotopic composition (delta 13C, delta 18O, Delta 47, Delta 48 and Delta 49 values) were then determined using a dual-inlet Delta XP mass spectrometer. RESULTS The internal precisions of the single gas Delta 47 measurements were 0.005 and 0.02 parts per thousand (1 SE) for the optimum and the routine analytical conditions, respectively, which are comparable with those obtained using a MAT 253 mass spectrometer. The long-term variations in the Delta 47 values for the in-house working standard and the heated CO2 gases since 2007 were close to the routine, single gas uncertainty while showing seasonal-like periodicities with a decreasing trend. Unlike the MAT 253, the Delta XP did not show any significant relationship between the Delta 47 and delta 47 values. CONCLUSIONS The Delta XP gave results that were approximately as precise as those of the MAT 253 for clumped-isotope analysis. The temporal stability of the Delta XP seemed to be lower, although an advantage of the Delta XP was that no dependency of delta 47 on Delta 47 was found. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stability analysis of aperiodic messages scheduled in the dynamic segment of flex ray protocol

In a cyber physical system like vehicles number of signals to be communicated in a network system has an increasing trend. More and more mechanical and hydraulic parts are replaced by electronic control units and infotainment and multimedia applications has increased in vehicles. Safety critical hard real time messages and aperiodic messages communicated between electronic control units have been increased in recent times. Flexray is a high bandwidth protocol consisting of static segment for supporting hard real time messages and a dynamic segment for transmitting soft and non real time messages. In this paper, a method to obtain the stability region for the random arrival of messages in each electronic control units which is scheduled in the dynamic segment of Flexray protocol is presented. Number of mini slots available in the dynamic segment of Flexray restricts the arrival rate of tasks to the micro controllers or the number of micro controllers connected to the Flexray bus. Stability region of mathematical model of the system is compared with the Flexray protocol simulation results.

Experimental analysis of composite single-lap joints using digital image correlation and comparison with theoretical models

The demand for energy efficient, low weight structures has boosted the use of composite structures assembled using increased quantities of structural adhesives. Bonded structures may be subjected to severe working environments such as high temperature and moisture due to which the adhesive gets degraded over a period of time. This reduces the strength of a joint and leads to premature failure. Measurement of strains in the adhesive bondline at any point of time during service may be beneficial as an assessment can be made on the integrity of a joint and necessary preventive actions may be taken before failure. This paper presents an experimental approach of measuring peel and shear strains in the adhesive bondline of composite single-lap joints using digital image correlation. Different sets of composite adhesive joints with varied bond quality were prepared and subjected to tensile load during which digital images were taken and processed using digital image correlation software. The measured peel strain at the joint edge showed a rapid increase with the initiation of a crack till failure of the joint. The measured strains were used to compute the corresponding stresses assuming a plane strain condition and the results were compared with stresses predicted using theoretical models, namely linear and nonlinear adhesive beam models. A similar trend in stress distribution was observed. Further comparison of peel and shear strains also exhibited similar trend for both healthy and degraded joints. Maximum peel stress failure criterion was used to predict the failure load of a composite adhesive joint and a comparison was made between predicted and actual failure loads. The predicted failure loads from theoretical models were found to be higher than the actual failure load for all the joints.

In-cylinder investigations and analysis of a SI gas engine fuelled with H-2 and CO rich syngas fuel: Sensitivity analysis of combustion descriptors for engine diagnostics and control

The sensitivity of combustion phasing and combustion descriptors to ignition timing, load and mixture quality on fuelling a multi-cylinder natural gas engine with bio-derived H-2 and CO rich syngas is addressed. While the descriptors for conventional fuels are well established and are in use for closed loop engine control, presence of H-2 in syngas potentially alters the mixture properties and hence combustion phasing, necessitating the current study. The ability of the descriptors to predict abnormal combustion, hitherto missing in the literature, is also addressed. Results from experiments using multi-cylinder engines and numerical studies using zero dimensional Wiebe function based simulation models are reported. For syngas with 20% H-2 and CO and 2% CH4 (producer gas), an ignition retard of 5 +/- 1 degrees was required compared to natural gas ignition timing to achieve peak load of 72.8 kWe. It is found that, for syngas, whose flammability limits are 0.42-1.93, the optimal engine operation was at an equivalence ratio of 1.12. The same methodology is extended to a two cylinder engine towards addressing the influence of syngas composition, especially H-2 fraction (varying from 13% to 37%), on the combustion phasing. The study confirms the utility of pressure trace derived combustion descriptors, except for the pressure trace first derivative, in describing the MBT operating condition of the engine when fuelled with an alternative fuel. Both experiments and analysis suggest most of the combustion descriptors to be independent of the engine load and mixture quality. A near linear relationship with ignition angle is observed. The general trend(s) of the combustion descriptors for syngas fuelled operation are similar to those of conventional fuels; the differences in sensitivity of the descriptors for syngas fuelled engine operation requires re-calibration of control logic for MBT conditions. Copyright (C) 2014, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.