Methodology for Pavement Design Reliability and Back Analysis Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

Given the increasing cost of designing and building new highway pavements, reliability analysis has become vital to ensure that a given pavement performs as expected in the field. Recognizing the importance of failure analysis to safety, reliability, performance, and economy, back analysis has been employed in various engineering applications to evaluate the inherent uncertainties of the design and analysis. The probabilistic back analysis method formulated on Bayes' theorem and solved using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm has proved to be highly efficient to address this issue. It is also quite flexible and is applicable to any type of prior information. In this paper, this method has been used to back-analyze the parameters that influence the pavement life and to consider the uncertainty of the mechanistic-empirical pavement design model. The load-induced pavement structural responses (e.g., stresses, strains, and deflections) used to predict the pavement life are estimated using the response surface methodology model developed based on the results of linear elastic analysis. The failure criteria adopted for the analysis were based on the factor of safety (FOS), and the study was carried out for different sample sizes and jumping distributions to estimate the most robust posterior statistics. From the posterior statistics of the case considered, it was observed that after approximately 150 million standard axle load repetitions, the mean values of the pavement properties decrease as expected, with a significant decrease in the values of the elastic moduli of the expected layers. An analysis of the posterior statistics indicated that the parameters that contribute significantly to the pavement failure were the moduli of the base and surface layer, which is consistent with the findings from other studies. After the back analysis, the base modulus parameters show a significant decrease of 15.8% and the surface layer modulus a decrease of 3.12% in the mean value. The usefulness of the back analysis methodology is further highlighted by estimating the design parameters for specified values of the factor of safety. The analysis revealed that for the pavement section considered, a reliability of 89% and 94% can be achieved by adopting FOS values of 1.5 and 2, respectively. The methodology proposed can therefore be effectively used to identify the parameters that are critical to pavement failure in the design of pavements for specified levels of reliability. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000455. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Effects of two-wheelers on saturation flow at signalized intersections in developing countries

Two-wheelers (TW) constitute a major proportion of urban traffic in developing countries and therefore their effect on the saturation flow at signalized intersections could be substantial. This paper attempts to study and analyze the effect of two-wheelers on the saturation flow of signalized intersections by collecting data at a few signalized intersections in Bangalore, India. A strong correlation is observed between the measured saturation flow and the proportion of two-wheeler traffic, which suggest that two-wheelers have significant impact and should be considered in the capacity analysis of signalized intersections. In this paper, the effect of two-wheelers on saturation flow rate is incorporated in a previous model by calibrating and introducing a new adjustment factor for two-wheelers. Results show that saturation flow measured using the modified HCM equation is closer to observed saturation flow values.

System Reliability Analysis of Flexible Pavements

The uncertainty in material properties and traffic characterization in the design of flexible pavements has led to significant efforts in recent years to incorporate reliability methods and probabilistic design procedures for the design, rehabilitation, and maintenance of pavements. In the mechanistic-empirical (ME) design of pavements, despite the fact that there are multiple failure modes, the design criteria applied in the majority of analytical pavement design methods guard only against fatigue cracking and subgrade rutting, which are usually considered as independent failure events. This study carries out the reliability analysis for a flexible pavement section for these failure criteria based on the first-order reliability method (FORM) and the second-order reliability method (SORM) techniques and the crude Monte Carlo simulation. Through a sensitivity analysis, the most critical parameter affecting the design reliability for both fatigue and rutting failure criteria was identified as the surface layer thickness. However, reliability analysis in pavement design is most useful if it can be efficiently and accurately applied to components of pavement design and the combination of these components in an overall system analysis. The study shows that for the pavement section considered, there is a high degree of dependence between the two failure modes, and demonstrates that the probability of simultaneous occurrence of failures can be almost as high as the probability of component failures. Thus, the need to consider the system reliability in the pavement analysis is highlighted, and the study indicates that the improvement of pavement performance should be tackled in the light of reducing this undesirable event of simultaneous failure and not merely the consideration of the more critical failure mode. Furthermore, this probability of simultaneous occurrence of failures is seen to increase considerably with small increments in the mean traffic loads, which also results in wider system reliability bounds. The study also advocates the use of narrow bounds to the probability of failure, which provides a better estimate of the probability of failure, as validated from the results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).

Analysis of avalanche breakdown in bipolar transistors based on majority carrier transportation

This paper describes a new analysis of the avalanche breakdown phenomenon in bipolar transistors for different bias conditions of the emitter-base junction. This analysis revolves around the transportation and storage of majority carriers in the base region. Using this analysis one can compute all the voltage-current characteristics of a transistor under avalanche breakdown.

Potential of bio-DME as a transportation fuel for India

This article discusses the potential of bio-dimethyl ether (DME) as a promising fuel for India in the transportation sector where a majority of imported petroleum in the form of diesel is used. Specifically, the suitability of DME in terms of its properties vis-a-vis those of diesel, ability to liquefy DME at low pressures similar to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and ease of production from renewable feedstock (biomass), and most importantly, very low emissions including near-zero soot levels are some of the features that make it an attractive option. A detailed review presents the state-of-the-art on various aspects such as estimates of potential bio-DME production, methods of synthesis of bio-DME, important physicochemical properties, fuel-injection system-related concerns (both conventional and common-rail system), fuel spray characteristics which have a direct bearing on the engine performance, and finally, exhaust emissions. Future research directions covering all aspects from production to utilization are summarized (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. doi:10.1063/1.3489529]

Achieving sustainable transportation system for Indian cities - problems and issues

This article aims at identifying the research issues and challenges that need to be addressed to achieve sustainable transportation system for Indian cities. The same is achieved by understanding the current system and trends of urbanization, motorization and modal shares in India; and their impact on mobility and safety (the two basic goals of transportation) as well as environment. Further, the article explores the efforts by the central and state governments in India to address the sustainability issues, and the problems and issues over and above the present efforts to achieve sustainability. The article concludes by summarizing the research issues with respect to planning/modelling, non-motorized transport, public transport, driver behaviour and road safety and traffic management. It is expected that these research issues will provide potential directions for carrying out further research aimed at achieving sustainable transport system for Indian cities.

Hydrogen and fluorine in crystal engineering: systematics from crystallographic studies of hydrogen bonded tartrate-amine complexes and fluoro-substituted coumarins, styrylcoumarins and butadienes

Three aspects of crystal engineering in molecular crystals are presented to emphasize the role of intermolecular interactions and factors influencing crystal packing. Hydrogen bonded tartrate-amine complexes have been analyzed with the propensity for formation of multidirectional hydrogen bonding as a key design element in the generation of materials for second harmonic generation (SHG). The invariance of the framework in DBT and its possible implications on SHG is outlined. The role of Fluorine in orienting molecules of coumarins, styrylcoumarins and butadienes for photodimerization is described with particular emphasis on its steering capability. Usage of coumarin as an design element for the generation of polymorphs of substituted styrylcoumarins is examined with specific examples.

Spatial Variability of the Depth of Weathered and Engineering Bedrock using Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave Method

In this paper an attempt has been made to evaluate the spatial variability of the depth of weathered and engineering bedrock in Bangalore, south India using Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) survey. One-dimensional MASW survey has been carried out at 58 locations and shear-wave velocities are measured. Using velocity profiles, the depth of weathered rock and engineering rock surface levels has been determined. Based on the literature, shear-wave velocity of 330 ± 30 m/s for weathered rock or soft rock and 760 ± 60 m/s for engineering rock or hard rock has been considered. Depths corresponding to these velocity ranges are evaluated with respect to ground contour levels and top surface levels have been mapped with an interpolation technique using natural neighborhood. The depth of weathered rock varies from 1 m to about 21 m. In 58 testing locations, only 42 locations reached the depths which have a shear-wave velocity of more than 760 ± 60 m/s. The depth of engineering rock is evaluated from these data and it varies from 1 m to about 50 m. Further, these rock depths have been compared with a subsurface profile obtained from a two-dimensional (2-D) MASW survey at 20 locations and a few selected available bore logs from the deep geotechnical boreholes.

A pseudo-dynamical systems approach to a class of inverse problems in engineering

A pseudo-dynamical approach for a class of inverse problems involving static measurements is proposed and explored. Following linearization of the minimizing functional associated with the underlying optimization problem, the new strategy results in a system of linearized ordinary differential equations (ODEs) whose steady-state solutions yield the desired reconstruction. We consider some explicit and implicit schemes for integrating the ODEs and thus establish a deterministic reconstruction strategy without an explicit use of regularization. A stochastic reconstruction strategy is then developed making use of an ensemble Kalman filter wherein these ODEs serve as the measurement model. Finally, we assess the numerical efficacy of the developed tools against a few linear and nonlinear inverse problems of engineering interest.

Bi-criteria single machine scheduling problem with a learning effect: Aneja-Nair method to obtain the set of optimal sequences

In this paper, we consider the bi-criteria single machine scheduling problem of n jobs with a learning effect. The two objectives considered are the total completion time (TC) and total absolute differences in completion times (TADC). The objective is to find a sequence that performs well with respect to both the objectives: the total completion time and the total absolute differences in completion times. In an earlier study, a method of solving bi-criteria transportation problem is presented. In this paper, we use the methodology of solvin bi-criteria transportation problem, to our bi-criteria single machine scheduling problem with a learning effect, and obtain the set of optimal sequences,. Numerical examples are presented for illustrating the applicability and ease of understanding.

A study in Crystal engineering: Solid-state photodimerization of chloro- and methyl-coumarins

Use of chloro and methyl substitution in crystal engineering and their interchangeability in terms of mode of packing have been examined in a series of substituted coumarins. Photoreactivity in the solid state lists been correlated with the crystallograhic structures of these coumarins. The packing of chloro-substituted aromatic compounds has been investigated by analysing the arrangement of 132 compounds. Results substantiate the use of the chloro group as a steering agent and show that the chloro and methyl groups are not always interchangeable.

A study on bullock carts. Part 1. Engineering analysis of the two-wheel bullock cart design

An engineering analysis of the design of two-wheel bullock carts has been carried out with the aid of a mathematical model. Non-dimensional expressions for the pull and the neck load have been developed. In the first instance, the cart is assumed to be cruising at constant velocity on a terrain with the effective coefficient of rolling friction varying over a wide range (0.001 to 0.5) and the gradient varying between +0.2 to −0.2. Subsequently, the effect of inertia force due to an acceleration parallel to the ground is studied. In the light of this analysis, two modifications to the design of the cart have been proposed and the relative merits of the current designs and the proposed designs are discussed.

Energy and rural buildings in India

This paper attempts to evaluate the energy inputs needed to produce rural buildings. Based on a survey, a comparison is carried out of traditional and innovative technologies with reference to their energy consumption. Some basic data regarding energies in transportation are also presented. The implications of this analysis for development objectives is discussed.