Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Analysis of randomly time varying systems by gaussian closure technique

The Gaussian probability closure technique is applied to study the random response of multidegree of freedom stochastically time varying systems under non-Gaussian excitations. Under the assumption that the response, the coefficient and the excitation processes are jointly Gaussian, deterministic equations are derived for the first two response moments. It is further shown that this technique leads to the best Gaussian estimate in a minimum mean square error sense. An example problem is solved which demonstrates the capability of this technique for handling non-linearity, stochastic system parameters and amplitude limited responses in a unified manner. Numerical results obtained through the Gaussian closure technique compare well with the exact solutions.

A differential transformation technique for the analysis of a class of non-linear time varying systems

The scope of the differential transformation technique, developed earlier for the study of non-linear, time invariant systems, has been extended to the domain of time-varying systems by modifications to the differential transformation laws proposed therein. Equivalence of a class of second-order, non-linear, non-autonomous systems with a linear autonomous model of second order is established through these transformation laws. The feasibility of application of this technique in obtaining the response of such non-linear time-varying systems is discussed.

On the L2 stability of linear multidimensional time varying systems

This paper analyzes the L2 stability of solutions of systems with time-varying coefficients of the form [A + C(t)]x′ = [B + D(t)]x + u, where A, B, C, D are matrices. Following proof of a lemma, the main result is derived, according to which the system is L2 stable if the eigenvalues of the coefficient matrices are related in a simple way. A corollary of the theorem dealing with small periodic perturbations of constant coefficient systems is then proved. The paper concludes with two illustrative examples, both of which deal with the attitude dynamics of a rigid, axisymmetric, spinning satellite in an eccentric orbit, subject to gravity gradient torques.

Bounded-input/bounded-output stability of linear multidimensional time- varying systems

The present study of the stability of systems governed by a linear multidimensional time-varying equation, which are encountered in spacecraft dynamics, economics, demographics, and biological systems, gives attention the lemma dealing with L(inf) stability of an integral equation that results from the differential equation of the system under consideration. Using the proof of this lemma, the main result on L(inf) stability is derived according; a corollary of the theorem deals with constant coefficient systems perturbed by small periodic terms. (O.C.)

Secure Concurrency Control in Firm Real-Time Database Systems

Many real-time database applications arise in electronic financial services, safety-critical installations and military systems where enforcing security is crucial to the success of the enterprise. For real-time database systems supporting applications with firm deadlines, we investigate here the performance implications, in terms of killed transactions, of guaranteeing multilevel secrecy. In particular, we focus on the concurrency control (CC) aspects of this issue. Our main contributions are the following: First, we identify which among the previously proposed real-time CC protocols are capable of providing covert-channel-free security. Second, using a detailed simulation model, we profile the real-time performance of a representative set of these secure CC protocols for a variety of security-classified workloads and system configurations. Our experiments show that a prioritized optimistic CC protocol, OPT-WAIT, provides the best overall performance. Third, we propose and evaluate a novel "dual-CC" approach that allows the real-time database system to simultaneously use different CC mechanisms for guaranteeing security and for improving real-time performance. By appropriately choosing these different mechanisms, concurrency control protocols that provide even better performance than OPT-WAIT are designed. Finally, we propose and evaluate GUARD, an adaptive admission-control policy designed to provide fairness with respect to the distribution of killed transactions across security levels. Our experiments show that GUARD efficiently provides close to ideal fairness for real-time applications that can tolerate covert channel bandwidths of upto one bit per second.

Some recent results on the stability of linear time varying systems

Some theorems derived recently by the authors on the stability of multidimensional linear time varying systems are reported in this paper. To begin with, criteria based on Liapunov�s direct method are stated. These are followed by conditions on the asymptotic behaviour and boundedness of solutions. Finally,L 2 andL ? stabilities of these systems are discussed. In conclusion, mention is made of some of the problems in aerospace engineering to which these theorems have been applied.

Asymptotic behaviour and boundedness of linear systems with time varying coefficients

Motivated by developments in spacecraft dynamics, the asymptotic behaviour and boundedness of solution of a special class of time varying systems in which each term appears as the sum of a constant and a time varying part, are analysed in this paper. It is not possible to apply standard textbook results to such systems, which are originally in second order. Some of the existing results are reformulated. Four theorems which explore the relations between the asymptotic behaviour/boundedness of the constant coefficient system, obtained by equating the time varying terms to zero, to the corresponding behaviour of the time varying system, are developed. The results show the behaviour of the two systems to be intimately related, provided the solutions of the constant coefficient system approach zero are bounded for large values of time, and the time varying terms are suitably restrained. Two problems are tackled using these theorems.

On various types of decoupling for time-varying system

This paper deals with the problem of decoupling a class of linear time-varying multi-variable systems, based on the defining property that the impulse response matrix of a decoupled system is diagonal. Depending on the properties of the coefficient matrices of the vector differential equation of the open-loop system, the system may be uniformly or totally decoupled. The necessary and sufficient conditions that permit a system to be uniformly or totally decoupled by state variable feedback are given. The main contribution of this paper is the precise definition of these two classes of decoupling and a rigorous derivation of the necessary and sufficient conditions which show the necessity of requiring that the system be of constant ordered rank with respect to observability. A simple example illustrates the importance of having several definitions of decoupling. Finally, the results are specialized to the case of time invariant systems.

Techniques for Analysis of Certain Nonlinear Systems

This paper suggests the use of simple transformations like ÿ=kx, kx2 for second-order nonlinear differential equations to effect rapid plotting of the phase-plane trajectories. The method is particularly helpful in determining quickly the trajectory slopes along simple curves in any desired region of the phase plane. New planes such as the tÿ-x, tÿ2-x are considered for the study of some groups of nonlinear time-varying systems. Suggestions for solving certain higher-order nonlinear systems are also made.

TIME VARYING LINEAR PREDICTION USING SPARSITY CONSTRAINTS

Time-varying linear prediction has been studied in the context of speech signals, in which the auto-regressive (AR) coefficients of the system function are modeled as a linear combination of a set of known bases. Traditionally, least squares minimization is used for the estimation of model parameters of the system. Motivated by the sparse nature of the excitation signal for voiced sounds, we explore the time-varying linear prediction modeling of speech signals using sparsity constraints. Parameter estimation is posed as a 0-norm minimization problem. The re-weighted 1-norm minimization technique is used to estimate the model parameters. We show that for sparsely excited time-varying systems, the formulation models the underlying system function better than the least squares error minimization approach. Evaluation with synthetic and real speech examples show that the estimated model parameters track the formant trajectories closer than the least squares approach.

An Implementation of Partitioned Scheduling Scheme for Hard Real-Time Tasks in Multicore Linux with Fair Share for Linux Tasks

The correctness of a hard real-time system depends its ability to meet all its deadlines. Existing real-time systems use either a pure real-time scheduler or a real-time scheduler embedded as a real-time scheduling class in the scheduler of an operating system (OS). Existing implementations of schedulers in multicore systems that support real-time and non-real-time tasks, permit the execution of non-real-time tasks in all the cores with priorities lower than those of real-time tasks, but interrupts and softirqs associated with these non-real-time tasks can execute in any core with priorities higher than those of real-time tasks. As a result, the execution overhead of real-time tasks is quite large in these systems, which, in turn, affects their runtime. In order that the hard real-time tasks can be executed in such systems with minimal interference from other Linux tasks, we propose, in this paper, an integrated scheduler architecture, called SchedISA, which aims to considerably reduce the execution overhead of real-time tasks in these systems. In order to test the efficacy of the proposed scheduler, we implemented partitioned earliest deadline first (P-EDF) scheduling algorithm in SchedISA on Linux kernel, version 3.8, and conducted experiments on Intel core i7 processor with eight logical cores. We compared the execution overhead of real-time tasks in the above implementation of SchedISA with that in SCHED_DEADLINE's P-EDF implementation, which concurrently executes real-time and non-real-time tasks in Linux OS in all the cores. The experimental results show that the execution overhead of real-time tasks in the above implementation of SchedISA is considerably less than that in SCHED_DEADLINE. We believe that, with further refinement of SchedISA, the execution overhead of real-time tasks in SchedISA can be reduced to a predictable maximum, making it suitable for scheduling hard real-time tasks without affecting the CPU share of Linux tasks.

Utilization bounds for RM scheduling on uniform multiprocessors

Utilization bounds for Earliest Deadline First(EDF) and Rate Monotonic(RM) scheduling are known and well understood for uniprocessor systems. In this paper, we derive limits on similar bounds for the multiprocessor case, when the individual processors need not be identical. Tasks are partitioned among the processors and RM scheduling is assumed to be the policy used in individual processors. A minimum limit on the bounds for a 'greedy' class of algorithms is given and proved, since the actual value of the bound depends on the algorithm that allocates the tasks. We also derive the utilization bound of an algorithm which allocates tasks in decreasing order of utilization factors. Knowledge of such bounds allows us to carry out very fast schedulability tests although we are constrained by the fact that the tests are sufficient but not necessary to ensure schedulability.

Infinite Dimensional Slow Modulations In A Delayed Model For Orthogonal Cutting Vibrations

We apply the method of multiple scales (MMS) to a well known model of regenerative cutting vibrations in the large delay regime. By ``large'' we mean the delay is much larger than the time scale of typical cutting tool oscillations. The MMS upto second order for such systems has been developed recently, and is applied here to study tool dynamics in the large delay regime. The second order analysis is found to be much more accurate than first order analysis. Numerical integration of the MMS slow flow is much faster than for the original equation, yet shows excellent accuracy. The main advantage of the present analysis is that infinite dimensional dynamics is retained in the slow flow, while the more usual center manifold reduction gives a planar phase space. Lower-dimensional dynamical features, such as Hopf bifurcations and families of periodic solutions, are also captured by the MMS. Finally, the strong sensitivity of the dynamics to small changes in parameter values is seen clearly.