Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Solubilities of palmitic and stearic fatty acids in supercritical carbon dioxide

The solubilities of two fatty acids, namely hexadecanoic acid (palmitic acid) and octadecanoic acid (stearic acid) in supercritical carbon dioxide (SCCO2), were determined at T = (328 and 338) K from 12.8 MPa to 22.6 MPa. Three models, namely a thermodynamic model based on the Peng-Robinson equation of state with Kwak and Mansoori mixing rules, a model based on dilute solution theory proposed by Mendez-Santiago and Teja and a new reformulated Chrastil equation model, were used to correlate the solubilities. In all the models, the correlation constants are temperature independent. All the models successfully correlated the experimental results for the solubilities of hexadecanoic acid within 3%.

Stability and transition in the flow of polymer solutions

The linear stability analysis of a plane Couette flow of viscoelastic fluid have been studied with the emphasis on two dimensional disturbances with wave number k similar to Re-1/2, where Re is Reynolds number based on maximum velocity and channel width. We employ three models to represent the dilute polymer solution: the classical Oldroyd-B model, the Oldroyd-B model with artificial diffusivity and the non-homogeneous polymer model. The result of the linear stability analysis is found to be sensitive to the polymer model used. While the plane Couette flow is found to be stable to infinitesimal disturbances for the first two models, the last one exhibits a linear instability.

An experimental study of suddenly expanded rectangular jet flow field

Flow through a rectangular Passage which is expanded suddenly into another rectangular duct of larger Cross-sectional area has been studied experimentally with stagnation Pressures from 3.5 atmospheres to 1.25 atmospheres. The length to height ratio of the enlarged duct varied from 5.769 to 1.923 and three models with length to height ratios 5.769, 3.846, and 1.923 were studied. The influence of stagnation Pressures and length to height ratio of the enlarged duct on base pressure and flow field mean pressures in the enlarged duct is discussed. The results of the present investigation indicate that the oscillatory nature of the mean pressure flow field in the enlarged portion with rectangular cross-section is appreciably different from that for circular cross-section at similar flow conditions.

Wind loading over the top portions of tall stacks with and without external landing platforms

The variation of the drag force near the top portions of tall stacks with and without external landing platforms, and with the exit open and closed, has been examined by model studies in a wind tunnel at Reynolds numbers of about 10(5). Pressure measurements on three models of different height to diameter ratios have been supplemented by flow visualisation studies. Observations confirm that when there is no platform, significant load enhancement over the top three to four diameters occurs, due to the high suction caused by the sharp separation of the flow over the top from the rim, in the aft regions of the stack. The enhanced loading is found to be greater if the exit is closed. A platform at the top, of less than twice the exit diameter, further increases the drag force near the top, but a still larger platform at the top, of about three times the exit diameter, decreases the drag force to values less than those much further below, effectively nullifying the enhanced drag force. It was found that such a reduction of the enhanced drag force in the top regions can also be achieved by a smaller platform of 1.1 to 1.3 times the local diameter, located at about three to five diameters below the top.

Structure-function hierarchies and von Karman-Howarth relations for turbulence in magnetohydrodynamical equations

We generalize the method of A. M. Polyakov, Phys. Rev. E 52, 6183 (1995)] for obtaining structure-function relations in turbulence in the stochastically forced Burgers equation, to develop structure-function hierarchies for turbulence in three models for magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). These are the Burgers analogs of MHD in one dimension Eur. Phys. J.B 9, 725 (1999)], and in three dimensions (3DMHD and 3D Hall MHD). Our study provides a convenient and unified scheme for the development of structure-function hierarchies for turbulence in a variety of coupled hydrodynamical equations. For turbulence in the three sets of MHD equations mentioned above, we obtain exact relations for third-order structure functions and their derivatives; these expressions are the analogs of the von Karman-Howarth relations for fluid turbulence. We compare our work with earlier studies of such relations in 3DMHD and 3D Hall MHD.

Molecular profiling of sepsis in mice using Fourier Transform Infrared Microspectroscopy

Sepsis is a life threatening condition resulting from a high burden of infection. It is a major health care problem and associated with inflammation, organ dysfunction and significant mortality. However, proper understanding and delineating the changes that occur during this complex condition remains a challenge. A comparative study involving intra-peritoneal injection of BALB/c mice with Salmonella Typhimurium (infection), lipopolysaccharide (endotoxic shock) or thioglycollate (sterile peritonitis) was performed. The changes in organs and sera were profiled using immunological assays and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) micro-spectroscopy. There is a rapid rise in inflammatory cytokines accompanied with lowering of temperature, respiratory rate and glucose amounts in mice injected with S. Typhimurium or lipopolysaccharide. FTIR identifies distinct changes in liver and sera: decrease in glycogen and protein/lipid ratio and increase in DNA and cholesteryl esters. These changes were distinct from the pattern observed in mice treated with thioglycollate and the differences in the data obtained between the three models are discussed. The combination of FTIR spectroscopy and other biomarkers will be valuable in monitoring molecular changes during sepsis. GRAPHICS] Intra-peritoneal infection with high dose of Salmonella Typhimurium leads to rapid increase in inflammatory cytokines, e.g. Tnf alpha (A). FTIR analysis of liver (B) and sera (C) identifies several metabolic changes: glycogen, protein/lipid, cholesteryl esters and DNA.

Three-dimensional 3d-4f heterometallic polymers containing both azide and carboxylate as co-ligands

The hydrothermal reaction of Ln(NO3)(3), Ni(NO3)(2), NaN3, and isonicotinic acid (L) yielded two novel 3-D coordination frameworks (1 and 2) of general formula [Ni(2)Ln(L)(5)(N-3)(2)(H2O)(3)] center dot 2H(2)O (Ln = Pr(III) for 1 and Nd(III) for 2), containing Ni-Pr or Ni-Nd hybrid extended three-dimensional networks containing both azido and carboxylate as co-ligands. Both the compounds are found to be isostructural and crystallize in monoclinic system having P2(1)/n space group. Here the lanthanide ions are found to be nonacoordinated. Both bidentate and monodentate modes of binding of the carboxylate with the lanthanides have been observed in the above complexes. Variable temperature magnetic studies of the above two complexes have been investigated in the temperature range 2-300 K which showed dominant antiferromagnetic interaction in both the cases and these experimental results are analyzed with the theoretical models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Interproton Distances in DNA Models with Nuclear Overhauser Enhancement Data

The conformational flexibility inherent in the polynucleotide chain plays an important role in deciding its three-dimensonal structure and enables it to undergo structural transitions in order to fulfil all its functions. Following certain stereochemical guidelines, both right and left handed double-helical models have been built in our laboratory and they are in reasonably good agreement with the fibre patterns for various polymorphous forms of DNA. Recently, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy has become an important technique for studying the solution conformation and polymorphism of nucleic acids. Several workers have used 1H nuclear magnetic resonance nuclear Overhauser enhancement measurements to estimate the interproton distances for the various DNA oligomers and compared them with the interproton distances for particular models of A and Β form DNA. In some cases the solution conformation does not seem to fit either of these models. We have been studying various models for DNA with a view to exploring the full conformational space allowed for nucleic acid polymers. In this paper, the interproton distances calculated for the different stereochemically feasible models of DNA are presented and they are compared and correlated against those obtained from 1Η nuclear magnetic resonance nuclear Overhauser enhancement measurements of various nucleic acid oligomers.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds - A hierarchy in modelling: Part V. Models for the inner layer potential difference in the presence of dipolar adsorption

The relations for the inner layer potential &fference (E) in the presence of adsorbed orgamc molecules are derived for three hterarchlcal models, m terms of molecular constants like permanent &pole moments, polarlzablhtles, etc It is shown how the experimentally observed patterns of the E vs 0 plots (hnear m all ranges of $\sigma^M$, non-linear in one or both regions of o M, etc ) can be understood in a serm-quantltatlve manner from the simplest model in our hierarchy, viz the two-state site panty version Two-state multi-site and three-state (sxte panty) models are also analysed and the slope (3E/80),,M tabulated for these also The results for the Esm-Markov effect are denved for all the models and compared with the earlier result of Parsons. A comparison with the GSL phenomenologlcal equation is presented and its molecular basis, as well as the hmltatlons, is analysed. In partxcular, two-state multa-slte and three-state (site panty) models yield E-o M relations that are more general than the "umfied" GSL equation The posslblhty of vaewlng the compact layer as a "composite medium" with an "effective dlelectnc constant" and obtaimng novel phenomenological descnptions IS also indicated.

Acyclic peptides as conformational models Crystal structure of Boc-Aib-Leu-Pro-NHMe± 2H2O

The tripeptide Boc-Aib-Leu-Pro-NHMe crystallizes in the orthorhombic space group P212121 with a = 9.542, b = 15.200, c = 18.256 Å and Z = 4. Each peptide is associated wth two water molecules in the asymmetric unit of the crystal. The structure has been solved by direct methods and refined to an R-value of 0.069. The peptide adopts a structure without any intramolecular hydrogen bond. The three residues occupy distinctly different regions of the Ramachandran map: Aib in the left-handed 310-helical region (± = 67°, ± = 23°), Leu in the β-sheet region (± = - 133°, ± = 142°) and Pro in the poly (Pro) II region (± = - 69°, ± = 151°). An interesting observation is that each water molecule participates in four hydrogen bonds with distorted tetrahedral coordination about the oxygen atom.

Simulation of laminar flow in a three-dimensional lid-driven cavity by lattice Boltzmann method

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to apply lattice Boltzmann equation method (LBM) with multiple relaxation time (MRT) model, to investigate lid-driven flow in a three-dimensional (3D), rectangular cavity, and compare the results with flow in an equivalent two-dimensional (2D) cavity. Design/methodology/approach - The second-order MRT model is implemented in a 3D LBM code. The flow structure in cavities of different aspect ratios (0.25-4) and Reynolds numbers (0.01-1000) is investigated. The LBM simulation results are compared with those from numerical solution of Navier-Stokes (NS) equations and with available experimental data. Findings - The 3D simulations demonstrate that 2D models may predict the flow structure reasonably well at low Reynolds numbers, but significant differences with experimental data appear at high Reynolds numbers. Such discrepancy between 2D and 3D results are attributed to the effect of boundary layers near the side-walls in transverse direction (in 3D), due to which the vorticity in the core-region is weakened in general. Secondly, owing to the vortex stretching effect present in 3D flow, the vorticity in the transverse plane intensifies whereas that in the lateral plane decays, with increase in Reynolds number. However, on the symmetry-plane, the flow structure variation with respect to cavity aspect ratio is found to be qualitatively consistent with results of 2D simulations. Secondary flow vortices whose axis is in the direction of the lid-motion are observed; these are weak at low. Reynolds numbers, but become quite strong at high Reynolds numbers. Originality/value - The findings will be useful in the study of variety of enclosed fluid flows.

NUVIEW:software for display and interactive manipulation of nucleic acid models

The NUVIEW software package allows skeletal models of any double helical nucleic acid molecule to be displayed out a graphics monitor and to apply various rotations, translations and scaling transformations interactively, through the keyboard. The skeletal model is generated by connecting any pair of representative points, one from each of the bases in the basepair. In addition to the above mentioned manipulations, the base residues can be identified by using a locator and the distance between any pair of residues can be obtained. A sequence based color coded display allows easy identification of sequence repeats, such as runs of Adenines. The real time interactive manipulation of such skeletal models for large DNA/RNA double helices, can be used to trace the path of the nucleic acid chain in three dimensions and hence get a better idea of its topology, location of linear or curved regions, distances between far off regions in the sequence etc. A physical picture of these features will assist in understanding the relationship between base sequence, structure and biological function in nucleic acids.

Seismic response of reinforced soil retaining wall models: Influence of backfill relative density

This paper presents the results of shaking table tests on model reinforced soil retaining walls in the laboratory. The influence of backfill relative density on the seismic response was studied through a series of laboratory model tests on retaining walls. Construction of model retaining walls in the laminar box mounted on shaking table, instrumentation and results from the shaking table tests are described in detail. Three types of walls: wrap- and rigid-faced reinforced soil walls and unreinforced rigid-faced walls constructed to different densities were tested for a relatively small excitation. Wrap-faced walls are further tested for higher base excitation at different frequencies and relative densities. It is observed from these tests that the effect of backfill density on the seismic performance of reinforced retaining walls is pronounced only at very low relative density and at the higher base excitation. The walls constructed with higher backfill relative density showed lesser face deformations and more acceleration amplifications compared to the walls constructed with lower densities when tested at higher base excitation. The response of wrap- and rigid-faced retaining walls is not much affected by the backfill relative density when tested at smaller base excitation. The effects of facing rigidity were evaluated to a limited extent. Displacements in wrap-faced walls are many times higher compared to rigid-faced walls. The results obtained from this study are helpful in understanding the relative performance of reinforced soil retaining walls constructed to when subjected to smaller and higher base excitation for the range of relative density employed in the testing program. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metal-spinel-corundum three phase equilibria in the system Ni-Cr-Al-O at 1373 K

The tie-lines representing the inter-crystalline ion exchange equilibria between the NiCr2O4-NiAl2O4 spinet solid solution and Cr2O3-Al2O3 corundum solid solution are determined by electron microprobe andEDAX pointcountanalysis of the oxide phases equilibrated with metallic Ni at 1373 K. The component activities in the spinet solid solution are derived from the tie-lines and thermodynamic data for Cr2O3-Al2O3 solid solution available in the literature. The Gibbs energy of mixing of the spinet solid solution calculated from the experimental data is discussed in relation to the values derived from the cation distribution models which assume random mixing of cations on both tetrahedral and octahedral sites. Positive deviation from the models is observed indicating significant positive enthalpy contribution arising form the size mismatch between Al+3 and Ni+2 ions on the tetrahedral site and Al+3, Ni+2 and Cr+3 on the octahedral site. Variation of the oxygen potential for threephase equilibrium involving metallic nickel, spinet solid solution and corundum solid solution is computed as a function of composition of the solid solutions at 1373 K. The oxygen potential exhibits a minimum at aluminum cationic fraction eta(Al)/(eta(Al) + eta(Cr)) = 0.524 in the oxide solid solutions.