34 resultados para Survey forecasts

em Indian Institute of Science - Bangalore - Índia


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This paper presents on overview of the issues in precisely defining, specifying and evaluating the dependability of software, particularly in the context of computer controlled process systems. Dependability is intended to be a generic term embodying various quality factors and is useful for both software and hardware. While the developments in quality assurance and reliability theories have proceeded mostly in independent directions for hardware and software systems, we present here the case for developing a unified framework of dependability—a facet of operational effectiveness of modern technological systems, and develop a hierarchical systems model helpful in clarifying this view. In the second half of the paper, we survey the models and methods available for measuring and improving software reliability. The nature of software “bugs”, the failure history of the software system in the various phases of its lifecycle, the reliability growth in the development phase, estimation of the number of errors remaining in the operational phase, and the complexity of the debugging process have all been considered to varying degrees of detail. We also discuss the notion of software fault-tolerance, methods of achieving the same, and the status of other measures of software dependability such as maintainability, availability and safety.

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An aerobiological survey to study the incidence and concentration of the pollen of Parthenium hysterophorus was conducted in Bangalore, India for a period of one year. This study indicated that Parthenium pollen was present in the atmosphere in significant amounts eigher as single pollen grains or in the form of clumps during the months of June to August.

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The environmcnl exerts an important inJuence on the pefirmance of space systems. A brief rel'iew of mo.s/ of the studies, pre.~ented over the past eightem years, relating to the influence ar7d the possible utilization of thc solar radiation pressure &d aero&namic forces, with particular reference to attitude dynamics and control qf satellites is presented here. The semi-passive stabilizers employing rhese forces show p~qmise of long life, low power and economic sjsfems, which though slower in response, compare we1I wit11 the octiw coi~trollers. It is felt that mud more attention is necessary to the actual implema~tution of these ideas and devices: some of which me quite ingenious und unique.

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Clinical and mycological investigations were made on 225 cases of suspected dermatomycoses. Of these, 102 were microscopically positive. But only 63 were culturally positive, and these are analysed here with regard to clinical patterns and aetiological species, age, sex and occupational incidence and susceptibility to griseofulvin in vitro. As in most other parts of India, Trichophyton rubrum was the dominant species. A high proportion of Epidermophyton floccosum was an unusual feature seen. Of the clinical types, tinea cruris was the most common. The isolates were sensitive to griseofulvin at low concentrations of 1 to 5 μg per ml of agar medium, E. floccosum being the most sensitive.

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Cascaded multilevel inverters synthesize a medium-voltage output based on a series connection of power cells which use standard low-voltage component configurations. This characteristic allows one to achieve high-quality output voltages and input currents and also outstanding availability due to their intrinsic component redundancy. Due to these features, the cascaded multilevel inverter has been recognized as an important alternative in the medium-voltage inverter market. This paper presents a survey of different topologies, control strategies and modulation techniques used by these inverters. Regenerative and advanced topologies are also discussed. Applications where the mentioned features play a key role are shown. Finally, future developments are addressed.

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This paper makes explicit the relation between relative part position and kinematic freedom of the parts which is implicitly available in the literature. An extensive set of representative papers in the areas of assembly and kinematic modelling is reviewed to specifically identify how the ideas in the two areas are related and influencing the development of each other. The papers are categorised by the approaches followed in the specification, representation, and solution of the part relations. It is observed that the extent of the part geometry is not respected in modelling schemes and as a result, the causal flow of events (proximity–contact–mobility) during the assembling process is not realised in the existing modelling paradigms, which are focusing on either the relative positioning problem or the relative motion problem. Though an assembly is a static description of part configuration, achievement of this configuration requires availability of relative motion for bringing parts together during the assembly process. On the other hand, the kinematic freedom of a part depends on the nature of contacting regions with other parts in its static configuration. These two problems are thus related through the contact geometry. The chronology of the approaches that significantly contributed to the development of the subject is also included in the paper.

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In this paper, the work that has been done in several laboratories and academic institutions in India in the area of wind engineering in the past 20–30 years has been reviewed. Studies on extreme and mean hourly winds, philosophies adopted in model studies in wind tunnels and some of the important results that have been obtained are described. Suggestions for future studies are indicated.

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A broad numerical survey of relativistic rotating neutron star structures was compiled using an exhaustive list of presently available equation of state models for neutron star matter. The structure parameters (spherical deformations in mass and radii, the moment of inertia and quadrupole moment, oblateness, and free precession) are calculated using the formalism proposed by Hartle and Thorne (1968). The results are discussed in relation to the relevant observational information. Binary pulsar data and X-ray burst sources provide information on the bulk properties of neutron stars, enabling the derivation of constraints that can be put on the structure of neutron stars and equation of state models.

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This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

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This work is a survey of the average cost control problem for discrete-time Markov processes. The authors have attempted to put together a comprehensive account of the considerable research on this problem over the past three decades. The exposition ranges from finite to Borel state and action spaces and includes a variety of methodologies to find and characterize optimal policies. The authors have included a brief historical perspective of the research efforts in this area and have compiled a substantial yet not exhaustive bibliography. The authors have also identified several important questions that are still open to investigation.

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Indian logic has a long history. It somewhat covers the domains of two of the six schools (darsanas) of Indian philosophy, namely, Nyaya and Vaisesika. The generally accepted definition of Indian logic over the ages is the science which ascertains valid knowledge either by means of six senses or by means of the five members of the syllogism. In other words, perception and inference constitute the subject matter of logic. The science of logic evolved in India through three ages: the ancient, the medieval and the modern, spanning almost thirty centuries. Advances in Computer Science, in particular, in Artificial Intelligence have got researchers in these areas interested in the basic problems of language, logic and cognition in the past three decades. In the 1980s, Artificial Intelligence has evolved into knowledge-based and intelligent system design, and the knowledge base and inference engine have become standard subsystems of an intelligent system. One of the important issues in the design of such systems is knowledge acquisition from humans who are experts in a branch of learning (such as medicine or law) and transferring that knowledge to a computing system. The second important issue in such systems is the validation of the knowledge base of the system i.e. ensuring that the knowledge is complete and consistent. It is in this context that comparative study of Indian logic with recent theories of logic, language and knowledge engineering will help the computer scientist understand the deeper implications of the terms and concepts he is currently using and attempting to develop.

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This paper gives a compact, self-contained tutorial survey of reinforcement learning, a tool that is increasingly finding application in the development of intelligent dynamic systems. Research on reinforcement learning during the past decade has led to the development of a variety of useful algorithms. This paper surveys the literature and presents the algorithms in a cohesive framework.

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Genetic algorithms provide an alternative to traditional optimization techniques by using directed random searches to locate optimal solutions in complex landscapes. We introduce the art and science of genetic algorithms and survey current issues in GA theory and practice. We do not present a detailed study, instead, we offer a quick guide into the labyrinth of GA research. First, we draw the analogy between genetic algorithms and the search processes in nature. Then we describe the genetic algorithm that Holland introduced in 1975 and the workings of GAs. After a survey of techniques proposed as improvements to Holland's GA and of some radically different approaches, we survey the advances in GA theory related to modeling, dynamics, and deception