Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

Kinetic theory for sheared granular flows

Rapid granular flows are far-from-equilibrium-driven dissipative systems where the interaction between the particles dissipates energy, and so a continuous supply of energy is required to agitate the particles and facilitate the rearrangement required for the flow. This is in contrast to flows of molecular fluids, which are usually close to equilibrium, where the molecules are agitated by thermal fluctuations. Sheared granular flows form a class of flows where the energy required for agitating the particles in the flowing state is provided by the mean shear. These flows have been studied using the methods of kinetic theory of gases, where the particles are treated in a manner similar to molecules in a molecular gas, and the interactions between particles are treated as instantaneous energy-dissipating binary collisions. The validity of the assumptions underlying kinetic theory, and their applicability to the idealistic case of dilute sheared granular flows are first discussed. The successes and challenges for applying kinetic theory for realistic dense sheared granular flows are then summarised. (C) 2014 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Low Threshold Quantum Dot Lasers

Semiconductor quantum dots have replaced conventional inorganic phosphors in numerous applications. Despite their overall successes as emitters, their impact as laser materials has been severely limited. Eliciting stimulated emission from quantum dots requires excitation by intense short pulses of light typically generated using other lasers. In this Letter, we develop a new class of quantum dots that exhibit gain under conditions of extremely low levels of continuous wave illumination. We observe thresholds as low as 74 mW/cm(2) in lasers made from these materials. Due to their strong optical absorption as well as low lasing threshold, these materials could possibly convert light from diffuse, polychromatic sources into a laser beam.