Hybrid moving block bootstrap for stochastic simulation of multi-site multi-season streamflows

The Hybrid approach introduced by the authors for at-site modeling of annual and periodic streamflows in earlier works is extended to simulate multi-site multi-season streamflows. It bears significance in integrated river basin planning studies. This hybrid model involves: (i) partial pre-whitening of standardized multi-season streamflows at each site using a parsimonious linear periodic model; (ii) contemporaneous resampling of the resulting residuals with an appropriate block size, using moving block bootstrap (non-parametric, NP) technique; and (iii) post-blackening the bootstrapped innovation series at each site, by adding the corresponding parametric model component for the site, to obtain generated streamflows at each of the sites. It gains significantly by effectively utilizing the merits of both parametric and NP models. It is able to reproduce various statistics, including the dependence relationships at both spatial and temporal levels without using any normalizing transformations and/or adjustment procedures. The potential of the hybrid model in reproducing a wide variety of statistics including the run characteristics, is demonstrated through an application for multi-site streamflow generation in the Upper Cauvery river basin, Southern India. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Stochastic Approximation Algorithm for Quantile Estimation

In this paper, we present two new stochastic approximation algorithms for the problem of quantile estimation. The algorithms uses the characterization of the quantile provided in terms of an optimization problem in 1]. The algorithms take the shape of a stochastic gradient descent which minimizes the optimization problem. Asymptotic convergence of the algorithms to the true quantile is proven using the ODE method. The theoretical results are also supplemented through empirical evidence. The algorithms are shown to provide significant improvement in terms of memory requirement and accuracy.

Kinetic proofreading at single molecular level: aminoacylation of tRNA(Ile) and the role of water as an editor

Proofreading/editing in protein synthesis is essential for accurate translation of information from the genetic code. In this article we present a theoretical investigation of efficiency of a kinetic proofreading mechanism that employs hydrolysis of the wrong substrate as the discriminatory step in enzyme catalytic reactions. We consider aminoacylation of tRNA(Ile) which is a crucial step in protein synthesis and for which experimental results are now available. We present an augmented kinetic scheme and then employ methods of stochastic simulation algorithm to obtain time dependent concentrations of different substances involved in the reaction and their rates of formation. We obtain the rates of product formation and ATP hydrolysis for both correct and wrong substrates (isoleucine and valine in our case, respectively), in single molecular enzyme as well as ensemble enzyme kinetics. The present theoretical scheme correctly reproduces (i) the amplitude of the discrimination factor in the overall rates between isoleucine and valine which is obtained as (1.8x10(2)).(4.33x10(2)) = 7.8x10(4), (ii) the rates of ATP hydrolysis for both Ile and Val at different substrate concentrations in the aminoacylation of tRNA(Ile). The present study shows a non-michaelis type dependence of rate of reaction on tRNA(Ile) concentration in case of valine. The overall editing in steady state is found to be independent of amino acid concentration. Interestingly, the computed ATP hydrolysis rate for valine at high substrate concentration is same as the rate of formation of Ile-tRNA(Ile) whereas at intermediate substrate concentration the ATP hydrolysis rate is relatively low. We find that the presence of additional editing domain in class I editing enzyme makes the kinetic proofreading more efficient through enhanced hydrolysis of wrong product at the editing CP1 domain.

A four-timescale algorithm for constrained stochastic optimization of RED

The overall performance of random early detection (RED) routers in the Internet is determined by the settings of their associated parameters. The non-availability of a functional relationship between the RED performance and its parameters makes it difficult to implement optimization techniques directly in order to optimize the RED parameters. In this paper, we formulate a generic optimization framework using a stochastically bounded delay metric to dynamically adapt the RED parameters. The constrained optimization problem thus formulated is solved using traditional nonlinear programming techniques. Here, we implement the barrier and penalty function approaches, respectively. We adopt a second-order nonlinear optimization framework and propose a novel four-timescale stochastic approximation algorithm to estimate the gradient and Hessian of the barrier and penalty objectives and update the RED parameters. A convergence analysis of the proposed algorithm is briefly sketched. We perform simulations to evaluate the performance of our algorithm with both barrier and penalty objectives and compare these with RED and a variant of it in the literature. We observe an improvement in performance using our proposed algorithm over RED, and the above variant of it.

Multiscale stochastic approximation for parametric optimization of hidden Markov models

A two-time scale stochastic approximation algorithm is proposed for simulation-based parametric optimization of hidden Markov models, as an alternative to the traditional approaches to ''infinitesimal perturbation analysis.'' Its convergence is analyzed, and a queueing example is presented.

Optimal Parameter Trajectory Estimation in Parameterized SDEs: An Algorithmic Procedure

We consider the problem of estimating the optimal parameter trajectory over a finite time interval in a parameterized stochastic differential equation (SDE), and propose a simulation-based algorithm for this purpose. Towards this end, we consider a discretization of the SDE over finite time instants and reformulate the problem as one of finding an optimal parameter at each of these instants. A stochastic approximation algorithm based on the smoothed functional technique is adapted to this setting for finding the optimal parameter trajectory. A proof of convergence of the algorithm is presented and results of numerical experiments over two different settings are shown. The algorithm is seen to exhibit good performance. We also present extensions of our framework to the case of finding optimal parameterized feedback policies for controlled SDE and present numerical results in this scenario as well.

Optimized Policies for the Retransmission Probabilities in Slotted Aloha

In this paper, we study the behaviour of the slotted Aloha multiple access scheme with a finite number of users under different traffic loads and optimize the retransmission probability q(r) for various settings, cost objectives and policies. First, we formulate the problem as a parameter optimization problem and use certain efficient smoothed functional algorithms for finding the optimal retransmission probability parameter. Next, we propose two classes of multi-level closed-loop feedback policies (for finding in each case the retransmission probability qr that now depends on the current system state) and apply the above algorithms for finding an optimal policy within each class of policies. While one of the policy classes depends on the number of backlogged nodes in the system, the other depends on the number of time slots since the last successful transmission. The latter policies are more realistic as it is difficult to keep track of the number of backlogged nodes at each instant. We investigate the effect of increasing the number of levels in the feedback policies. Wen also investigate the effects of using different cost functions (withn and without penalization) in our algorithms and the corresponding change in the throughput and delay using these. Both of our algorithms use two-timescale stochastic approximation. One of the algorithms uses one simulation while the other uses two simulations of the system. The two-simulation algorithm is seen to perform better than the other algorithm. Optimal multi-level closed-loop policies are seen to perform better than optimal open-loop policies. The performance further improves when more levels are used in the feedback policies.

Precipitation in small systems-I. stochastic analysis

Precipitation in small droplets involving emulsions, microemulsions or vesicles is important for Producing multicomponent ceramics and nanoparticles. Because of the random nature of nucleation and the small number of particles in a droplet, the use of a deterministic population balance equation for predicting the number density of particles may lead to erroneous results even for evaluating the mean behavior of such systems. A comparison between the predictions made through stochastic simulation and deterministic population balance involving small droplets has been made for two simple systems, one involving crystallization and the other a single-component precipitation. The two approaches have been found to yield quite different results under a variety of conditions. Contrary to expectation, the smallness of the population alone does not cause these deviations. Thus, if fluctuation in supersaturation is negligible, the population balance and simulation predictions concur. However, for large fluctuations in supersaturation, the predictions differ significantly, indicating the need to take the stochastic nature of the phenomenon into account. This paper describes the stochastic treatment of populations, which involves a sequence of so-called product density equations and forms an appropriate framework for handling small systems.

Stochastic optimization for adaptive labor staffing in service systems

Service systems are labor intensive. Further, the workload tends to vary greatly with time. Adapting the staffing levels to the workloads in such systems is nontrivial due to a large number of parameters and operational variations, but crucial for business objectives such as minimal labor inventory. One of the central challenges is to optimize the staffing while maintaining system steady-state and compliance to aggregate SLA constraints. We formulate this problem as a parametrized constrained Markov process and propose a novel stochastic optimization algorithm for solving it. Our algorithm is a multi-timescale stochastic approximation scheme that incorporates a SPSA based algorithm for ‘primal descent' and couples it with a ‘dual ascent' scheme for the Lagrange multipliers. We validate this optimization scheme on five real-life service systems and compare it with a state-of-the-art optimization tool-kit OptQuest. Being two orders of magnitude faster than OptQuest, our scheme is particularly suitable for adaptive labor staffing. Also, we observe that it guarantees convergence and finds better solutions than OptQuest in many cases.

Newton-based stochastic optimization using q-Gaussian smoothed functional algorithms

We present the first q-Gaussian smoothed functional (SF) estimator of the Hessian and the first Newton-based stochastic optimization algorithm that estimates both the Hessian and the gradient of the objective function using q-Gaussian perturbations. Our algorithm requires only two system simulations (regardless of the parameter dimension) and estimates both the gradient and the Hessian at each update epoch using these. We also present a proof of convergence of the proposed algorithm. In a related recent work (Ghoshdastidar, Dukkipati, & Bhatnagar, 2014), we presented gradient SF algorithms based on the q-Gaussian perturbations. Our work extends prior work on SF algorithms by generalizing the class of perturbation distributions as most distributions reported in the literature for which SF algorithms are known to work turn out to be special cases of the q-Gaussian distribution. Besides studying the convergence properties of our algorithm analytically, we also show the results of numerical simulations on a model of a queuing network, that illustrate the significance of the proposed method. In particular, we observe that our algorithm performs better in most cases, over a wide range of q-values, in comparison to Newton SF algorithms with the Gaussian and Cauchy perturbations, as well as the gradient q-Gaussian SF algorithms. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Precipitation In Small Systems--II. Mean Field Equations More Effective Than Population Balance

Part I (Manjunath et al., 1994, Chem. Engng Sci. 49, 1451-1463) of this paper showed that the random particle numbers and size distributions in precipitation processes in very small drops obtained by stochastic simulation techniques deviate substantially from the predictions of conventional population balance. The foregoing problem is considered in this paper in terms of a mean field approximation obtained by applying a first-order closure to an unclosed set of mean field equations presented in Part I. The mean field approximation consists of two mutually coupled partial differential equations featuring (i) the probability distribution for residual supersaturation and (ii) the mean number density of particles for each size and supersaturation from which all average properties and fluctuations can be calculated. The mean field equations have been solved by finite difference methods for (i) crystallization and (ii) precipitation of a metal hydroxide both occurring in a single drop of specified initial supersaturation. The results for the average number of particles, average residual supersaturation, the average size distribution, and fluctuations about the average values have been compared with those obtained by stochastic simulation techniques and by population balance. This comparison shows that the mean field predictions are substantially superior to those of population balance as judged by the close proximity of results from the former to those from stochastic simulations. The agreement is excellent for broad initial supersaturations at short times but deteriorates progressively at larger times. For steep initial supersaturation distributions, predictions of the mean field theory are not satisfactory thus calling for higher-order approximations. The merit of the mean field approximation over stochastic simulation lies in its potential to reduce expensive computation times involved in simulation. More effective computational techniques could not only enhance this advantage of the mean field approximation but also make it possible to use higher-order approximations eliminating the constraints under which the stochastic dynamics of the process can be predicted accurately.

Study of ground state phases for spin-1/2 Falicov-Kimball model on a triangular lattice

The spin dependent Falicov-Kimball model (FKM) is studied on a triangular lattice using numerical diagonalization technique and Monte-Carlo simulation algorithm. Magnetic properties have been explored for different values of parameters: on-site Coulomb correlation U, exchange interaction J and filling of electrons. We have found that the ground state configurations exhibit long range Neel order, ferromagnetism or a mixture of both as J is varied. The magnetic moments of itinerant (d) and localized U) electrons are also studied. For the one-fourth filling case we found no magnetic moment from d- and f-electrons for U less than a critical value. `.2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Approximation Algorithms for Constrained Optimization via Simulation

We develop four algorithms for simulation-based optimization under multiple inequality constraints. Both the cost and the constraint functions are considered to be long-run averages of certain state-dependent single-stage functions. We pose the problem in the simulation optimization framework by using the Lagrange multiplier method. Two of our algorithms estimate only the gradient of the Lagrangian, while the other two estimate both the gradient and the Hessian of it. In the process, we also develop various new estimators for the gradient and Hessian. All our algorithms use two simulations each. Two of these algorithms are based on the smoothed functional (SF) technique, while the other two are based on the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) method. We prove the convergence of our algorithms and show numerical experiments on a setting involving an open Jackson network. The Newton-based SF algorithm is seen to show the best overall performance.

The actor-critic algorithm as multi-time-scale stochastic approximation

The actor-critic algorithm of Barto and others for simulation-based optimization of Markov decision processes is cast as a two time Scale stochastic approximation. Convergence analysis, approximation issues and an example are studied.

Stochastic Algorithms for Discrete Parameter Simulation Optimization

We present two efficient discrete parameter simulation optimization (DPSO) algorithms for the long-run average cost objective. One of these algorithms uses the smoothed functional approximation (SFA) procedure, while the other is based on simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA). The use of SFA for DPSO had not been proposed previously in the literature. Further, both algorithms adopt an interesting technique of random projections that we present here for the first time. We give a proof of convergence of our algorithms. Next, we present detailed numerical experiments on a problem of admission control with dependent service times. We consider two different settings involving parameter sets that have moderate and large sizes, respectively. On the first setting, we also show performance comparisons with the well-studied optimal computing budget allocation (OCBA) algorithm and also the equal allocation algorithm. Note to Practitioners-Even though SPSA and SFA have been devised in the literature for continuous optimization problems, our results indicate that they can be powerful techniques even when they are adapted to discrete optimization settings. OCBA is widely recognized as one of the most powerful methods for discrete optimization when the parameter sets are of small or moderate size. On a setting involving a parameter set of size 100, we observe that when the computing budget is small, both SPSA and OCBA show similar performance and are better in comparison to SFA, however, as the computing budget is increased, SPSA and SFA show better performance than OCBA. Both our algorithms also show good performance when the parameter set has a size of 10(8). SFA is seen to show the best overall performance. Unlike most other DPSO algorithms in the literature, an advantage with our algorithms is that they are easily implementable regardless of the size of the parameter sets and show good performance in both scenarios.