Impact of moisture variations on the circulation of the south-west monsoon

The impact of moisture anomalies on the circulation of the south-west Indian monsoon has been studied with a general circulation model. Newtonian relaxation is adopted to subject the model atmosphere under sustained moisture anomalies. The impact of negative anomalies of moisture was seen as a divergent circulation anomaly, while the positive anomaly was a stronger convergent anomaly. Although the humidity fields display a resilient behaviour, and relax back to normal patterns 1–2 days after the forcing terms in humidity are withdrawn, the circulation anomalies created by the moisture variation keeps growing. A feedback between positive moisture anomalies and low level convergence exists, which is terminated in the absence of external forcings.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

Multi-decadal variation of the net downward shortwave radiation over south Asia: The solar dimming effect

The solar radiation flux at the earth's surface has gone through decadal changes of decreasing and increasing trends over the globe. These phenomena known as dimming and brightening, respectively, have attracted the scientific interest in relation to the changes in radiative balance and climate. Despite the interest in the solar dimming/brightening phenomenon in various parts of the world, south Asia has not attracted great scientific attention so far. The present work uses the net downward shortwave radiation (NDSWR) values derived from satellites (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA 2D) in order to examine the multi-decadal variations in the incoming solar radiation over south Asia for the period of 1979-2004. From the analysis it is seen that solar dimming continues over south Asia with a trend of -0.54 Wm(-2) yr(-1). Assuming clear skies an average decrease of -0.05 Wm(-2)yr(-1) in NDSWR was observed, which is attributed to increased aerosol emissions over the region. There is evidence that the increase in cloud optical depth plays the major role for the solar dimming over the area. The cloud optical depth (MERRA retrievals) has increased by 10.7% during the study period, with the largest increase to be detected for the high-level (atmospheric pressure P < 400 hPa) clouds (31.2%). Nevertheless, the decrease in solar radiation and the role of aerosols and clouds exhibit large monthly and seasonal variations directly affected by the local monsoon system, the anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions. All these aspects are examined in detail aiming at shedding light into the solar dimming phenomenon over a densely populated area. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monsoon Regimes and Processes in CCSM4. Part I: The Asian-Australian Monsoon

The simulation characteristics of the Asian-Australian monsoon are documented for the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). This is the first part of a two part series examining monsoon regimes in the global tropics in the CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, (CAM4)] to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and with ocean-atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In general, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with CAM4, and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Most aspects of the Asian-Australian monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. There is a reduction of the systematic error of rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean for the South Asian monsoon, and well-simulated connections between SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and regional South Asian monsoon precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the Australian monsoon is closer to observations in part because of contributions from the improvements of the Indonesian Throughflow and diapycnal diffusion in CCSM4. Intraseasonal variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon is much improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3 both in terms of eastward and northward propagation characteristics, though it is still somewhat weaker than observed. An improved simulation of El Nino in CCSM4 contributes to more realistic connections between the Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), though there is considerable decadal and century time scale variability of the strength of the monsoon-ENSO connection.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon

A link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and multidecadal variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is unraveled and a long sought physical mechanism linking Atlantic climate and monsoon has been identified. The AMO produces persistent weakening (strengthening) of the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature (TT) by setting up negative (positive) TT anomaly over Eurasia during northern late summer/autumn resulting in early (late) withdrawal of the south west monsoon and persistent decrease (increase) of seasonal monsoon rainfall. On inter-annual time scales, strong North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or North Annular mode (NAM) influences the monsoon by producing similar TT anomaly over Eurasia. The AMO achieves the interdecadal modulation of the monsoon by modulating the frequency of occurrence of strong NAO/NAM events. This mechanism also provides a basis for explaining the observed teleconnection between North Atlantic temperature and the Asian monsoon in paleoclimatic proxies. Citation: Goswami, B. N., M. S. Madhusoodanan, C. P. Neema, and D. Sengupta (2006), A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon

A study of vertical cloud structure of the Indian summer monsoon using CloudSat data

Precise specification of the vertical distribution of cloud optical properties is important to reduce the uncertainty in quantifying the radiative impacts of clouds. The new global observations of vertical profiles of clouds from the CloudSat mission provide opportunities to describe cloud structures and to improve parameterization of clouds in the weather and climate prediction models. In this study, four years (2007-2010) of observations of vertical structure of clouds from the CloudSat cloud profiling radar have been used to document the mean vertical structure of clouds associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its intra-seasonal variability. Active and break monsoon spells associated with the intra-seasonal variability of ISM have been identified by an objective criterion. For the present analysis, we considered CloudSat derived column integrated cloud liquid and ice water, and vertically profiles of cloud liquid and ice water content. Over the South Asian monsoon region, deep convective clouds with large vertical extent (up to 14 km) and large values of cloud water and ice content are observed over the north Bay of Bengal. Deep clouds with large ice water content are also observed over north Arabian Sea and adjoining northwest India, along the west coast of India and the south equatorial Indian Ocean. The active monsoon spells are characterized by enhanced deep convection over the Bay of Bengal, west coast of India and northeast Arabian Sea and suppressed convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the Bay of Bengal, cloud liquid water content and ice water content is enhanced by similar to 90 and similar to 200 % respectively during the active spells. An interesting feature associated with the active spell is the vertical tilting structure of positive CLWC and CIWC anomalies over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which suggests a pre-conditioning process for the northward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal variability. It is also observed that during the break spells, clouds are not completely suppressed over central India. Instead, clouds with smaller vertical extent (3-5 km) are observed due to the presence of a heat low type of circulation. The present results will be useful for validating the vertical structure of clouds in weather and climate prediction models.

The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Chromium isotope variations (delta Cr-53/52) in mantle-derived sources and their weathering products: Implications for environmental studies and the evolution of delta Cr-53/52 in the Earth's mantle over geologic time

Here we report chromium isotope compositions, expressed as delta Cr-53/ 52 in per mil (&) relative to NIST 979, measured in selected Cr-rich minerals and rocks formed by the primary magmatic as well as the secondary metamorphic and weathering processes. The main objectives of this study were: (i) to further constrain the isotope composition of the Earth's mantle Cr inventory and its possible variation during geological history, based on the analysis of globally distributed and stratigraphically constrained mantle-derived chromites; and (ii) to investigate the magnitude and systematics of Cr isotope fractionation during oxidative weathering and secondary alteration (i. e., hydration, serpentinization) of the magmatic Cr sources. Specifically, we analyzed delta Cr-53/ 52 in a set of globally distributed mantle-derived chromites (FeMgCr2O4, n = 30) collected from various locations in Europe, Asia, Africa and South America, and our results confirm that a chromite-hosted Earth's mantle Cr inventory is uniform at - 0.079 +/- 0.129& (2SD), which we named here as a ` canonical' mantle d 53/ 52 Cr signature. Furthermore our dataset of stratigraphically constrained chromites, whose crystallization ages cover most of the Earth's geological history, indicate that the bulk Cr isotope composition of the chromite-hosted mantle inventory has remained uniform, within about +/- 0.100&, since at least the Early Archean times (similar to 3500 million years ago, Ma). To investigate the systematics of Cr isotope fractionation associated with alteration processes we analyzed a number of secondary Cr-rich minerals and variably altered ultramafic rocks (i. e., serpentinized harzburgites, lherzolites) that revealed large positive delta Cr-53/ 52 anomalies that are systematically shifted to higher values with an increasing degree of alteration and serpentinization. The degree of aqueous alteration and serpentinization was quantified by the abundances of fluid-mobile (Rb, K) elements, and by the Loss On Ignition (LOI) parameter, which determines the amount of structurally bound water (OH/ H2O) present in secondary hydrated minerals like serpentine. Overall, we observed that altered ultramafic rocks that yielded the highest LOI values, and the lowest amounts of fluid mobile elements, also yielded the heaviest delta Cr-53/ 52 signatures. Therefore, we conclude that secondary alteration (i.e., hydration, serpentinization) of ultramafic rocks in near-surface oxidative environments tend to shift the bulk Cr isotope composition of the weathered products to isotopically heavier values, pointing to a dynamic redox cycling of Cr in the Earth's crustal and near-surface environments. Hence, if validated by future

Stable atmospheric methane in the 2000s: key-role of emissions from natural wetlands

Two atmospheric inversions (one fine-resolved and one process-discriminating) and a process-based model for land surface exchanges are brought together to analyse the variations of methane emissions from 1990 to 2009. A focus is put on the role of natural wetlands and on the years 2000-2006, a period of stable atmospheric concentrations. From 1990 to 2000, the top-down and bottom-up visions agree on the time-phasing of global total and wetland emission anomalies. The process-discriminating inversion indicates that wetlands dominate the time-variability of methane emissions (90% of the total variability). The contribution of tropical wetlands to the anomalies is found to be large, especially during the post-Pinatubo years (global negative anomalies with minima between -41 and -19 Tg yr(-1) in 1992) and during the alternate 1997-1998 El-Nino/1998-1999 La-Nina (maximal anomalies in tropical regions between +16 and +22 Tg yr(-1) for the inversions and anomalies due to tropical wetlands between +12 and +17 Tg yr(-1) for the process-based model). Between 2000 and 2006, during the stagnation of methane concentrations in the atmosphere, the top-down and bottom-up approaches agree on the fact that South America is the main region contributing to anomalies in natural wetland emissions, but they disagree on the sign and magnitude of the flux trend in the Amazon basin. A negative trend (-3.9 +/- 1.3 Tg yr(-1)) is inferred by the process-discriminating inversion whereas a positive trend (+1.3 +/- 0.3 Tg yr(-1)) is found by the process model. Although processed-based models have their own caveats and may not take into account all processes, the positive trend found by the B-U approach is considered more likely because it is a robust feature of the process-based model, consistent with analysed precipitations and the satellite-derived extent of inundated areas. On the contrary, the surface-data based inversions lack constraints for South America. This result suggests the need for a re-interpretation of the large increase found in anthropogenic methane inventories after 2000.

A comparison of the fine-scale structure of the diurnal cycle of tropical rain and lightning

In this study, the fine-scale structure of the diurnal variability of ground-based lightning is systematically compared with satellite-based rain. At the outset, it is shown that tropical variability of lightning exhibits a prominent diurnal mode, much like rain. A comparison of the geographical distribution of the timing of the diurnal maximum shows that there is very good agreement between the two observables over continental and coastal regions throughout the tropics. Following this global tropical comparison, we focus on two regions, Borneo and equatorial South America, both of which show the interplay between oceanward and landward propagations of the phase of the diurnal maximum. Over Borneo, both rain and lightning clearly show a climatological cycle of ``breathing in'' (afternoon to early morning) and ``breathing out'' (morning to early afternoon). Over the equatorial east coast of South America, landward propagation is noticed in rain and lightning from early afternoon to early morning. Along the Pacific coast of South America, both rain and lightning show oceanward propagation. Though qualitatively consistent, over both regions the propagation is seen to extend further in rainfall. Additionally, given that lightning highlights vigorous convection, the timing of its diurnal maximum often precedes that of rainfall in the convective life cycle. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.