Social evolution - Has nature ever rewound the tape?

Social insects such as ants, bees, wasps and termites exhibit extreme forms of altruism where some individuals remain sterile and assist other individuals in reproduction. Hamilton's inclusive fitness theory provides a powerful framework for investigating the evolution of such altruism. Using the paper wasp Ropalidia marginata, we have quantified and delineated the role of ecological, physiological, genetic and demographic factors in social evolution. An interesting feature of the models we have developed is their symmetry so that either altruism or selfishness can evolve, depending on the numerical values of various parameters. This suggests that selfish/solitary behaviour must occasionally re-emerge even from the eusocial state, It is useful to contemplate expected intermediate states during such potential reversals. We can perhaps envisage three successive steps in such a hypothetical process: i) workers revolt against the hegemony of the queen and challenge her status as the sole reproductive, ii) workers stop producing queens and one or more of them function as egg layers (functional queen/s) capable of producing both haploid as well as diploid offspring and iii) social evolution reverses completely so that a eusocial species becomes solitary, at least facultatively. It appears that the third step, namely transition from eusociality to the solitary state, is rare and has been restricted to transitions from the primitively eusocial state only. The absence of transitions from the highly eusocial state to the solitary state may be attributed to a number of 'preventing mechanisms' such as (a) queen control of workers (b) loss of spermathecae and ability to mate (c) morphological specialization (d) caste polyethism and (e) homeostasis, which must each make the transition difficult and, taken together, perhaps very difficult. However, the discovery of a transition from the highly eusocial to the solitary state can hardly he ruled out, given that little or no effort has gone into its detection. In this paper I discuss social evolution and its possible reversal and cite potential examples of stages in the transition from the social to the solitary.

Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Elastic Resources Framework in IaaS, preserving performance SLAs

Elasticity in cloud systems provides the flexibility to acquire and relinquish computing resources on demand. However, in current virtualized systems resource allocation is mostly static. Resources are allocated during VM instantiation and any change in workload leading to significant increase or decrease in resources is handled by VM migration. Hence, cloud users tend to characterize their workloads at a coarse grained level which potentially leads to under-utilized VM resources or under performing application. A more flexible and adaptive resource allocation mechanism would benefit variable workloads, such as those characterized by web servers. In this paper, we present an elastic resources framework for IaaS cloud layer that addresses this need. The framework provisions for application workload forecasting engine, that predicts at run-time the expected demand, which is input to the resource manager to modulate resource allocation based on the predicted demand. Based on the prediction errors, resources can be over-allocated or under-allocated as compared to the actual demand made by the application. Over-allocation leads to unused resources and under allocation could cause under performance. To strike a good trade-off between over-allocation and under-performance we derive an excess cost model. In this model excess resources allocated are captured as over-allocation cost and under-allocation is captured as a penalty cost for violating application service level agreement (SLA). Confidence interval for predicted workload is used to minimize this excess cost with minimal effect on SLA violations. An example case-study for an academic institute web server workload is presented. Using the confidence interval to minimize excess cost, we achieve significant reduction in resource allocation requirement while restricting application SLA violations to below 2-3%.

Evolution of social behaviour in the primitively eusocial wasp Ropalidia marginata: do we need to look beyond kin selection?

Ropalidia marginata is a primitively eusocial wasp widely distributed in peninsular India. Although solitary females found a small proportion of nests, the vast majority of new nests are founded by small groups of females. In suchmultiple foundress nests, a single dominant female functions as the queen and lays eggs, while the rest function as sterile workers and care for the queen's brood. Previous attempts to understand the evolution of social behaviour and altruism in this species have employed inclusive fitness theory (kin selection) as a guiding framework. Although inclusive fitness theory is quite successful in explaining the high propensity of the wasps to found nests in groups, several features of their social organization suggest that forces other than kin selection may also have played a significant role in the evolution of this species. These features include lowering of genetic relatedness owing to polyandry and serial polygyny, nest foundation by unrelated individuals, acceptance of young non-nest-mates, a combination of well-developed nest-mate recognition and lack of intra-colony kin recognition, a combination of meek and docile queens and a decentralized self-organized work force, long reproductive queues with cryptic heir designates and conflict-free queen succession, all resulting in extreme intra-colony cooperation and inter-colony conflict.