Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of inter-ion interactions in N,N,N',N'-tetramethylethylenediammonium dithiocyanate via experimental and theoretical charge density studies

The crystal structure of the N,N,N',N'-tetramethylethylenediammonium dithiocyanate salt has been examined by experimental charge density studies from high-resolution X-ray diffraction data. The corresponding results are compared with multipole refinements, using theoretical structure factors obtained from a periodic density functional theory calculation at the B3LYP level with a 6-31G** basis set. The salt crystallizes in space group P (1) over bar and contains only a single ion pair with an inversion center in the cation. The salt has thus one unique classical N+-H center dot center dot center dot(NCS)(-) hydrogen bond but also has six other weaker interactions: four C-H center dot center dot center dot S, one C-H center dot center dot center dot N, and one C-H center dot center dot center dot C-pi. The nature of all these interactions has been examined topologically using Bader's quantum theory of "atoms in molecules" and all eight of the Koch-Popelier criteria. The experimental and theoretical approaches agree well and both show that the inter-ion interactions, even in this simplest of systems, play an integrated and complex role in the packing of the ions in the crystal. Electrostatic potential maps are derived from experimental charge densities. This is the first time such a system has been examined in detail by these methods.

Electronic phase separation in correlated oxides: The phenomenon, its present status and future prospects

Many transition metal oxide materials of high chemical purity are not necessarily monophasic. Thus, single crystals of chemically pure rare earth manganites and cobaltates of the general formula Ln1-xAxMO3 (Ln=rare earth metal, A=alkaline earth metal, M=Mn, Co) exhibit the phenomenon of electronic phase separation wherein phases of different electronic and magnetic properties coexist. Such phase separation, the length scale of which can vary anywhere between a few nanometers to microns, gives distinct signatures in X-ray and neutron diffraction patterns, electrical and magnetic properties, as well as in NMR and other spectroscopies. While the probe one employs to investigate electronic phase separation depends on the length scale, it is noteworthy that direct imaging of the inhomogeneities has been accomplished. Some understanding of this phenomenon has been possible on the basis of some of the theoretical models, but we are far from unraveling the varied aspects of this new phenomenon. Herein, we present the highlights of experimental techniques and theoretical approaches, and comment on the future outlook for this fascinating phenomenon

Diffusion Anomaly in Silicalite and VPI-5 from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on rigid and flexible framework models of silicalite and a rigid framework model of the aluminophosphate VPI-5 for different sorbate diameters are reported. The sorbate-host interactions are modeled in terms of simple atom-atom Lennard-Jones interactions. The results suggest that the diffusion coefficient exhibits an anomaly as gamma approaches unity. The MD results confirm the existence of a linear regime for sorbate diameters significantly smaller than the channel diameter and an anomalous regime observed for sorbate diameters comparable to the channel diameter. The power spectra obtained by Fourier transformation of the velocity autocorrelation function indicate that there is an increase in the intensity of the low-frequency component for the velocity component parallel to the direction of motion for the sorbate diameter in the anomalous regime. The present results suggest that the diffusion anomaly is observed irrespective of (1) the geometry and topology of the pore structure and (2) the nature of the host material. The results are compared with the work of Derouane and co-workers, who have suggested the existence of ''floating molecules'' on the basis of earlier theoretical and computational approaches.

A study on seismicity and seismic hazard for Karnataka State

This paper presents a detailed study on the seismic pattern of the state of Karnataka and also quantifies the seismic hazard for the entire state. In the present work, historical and instrumental seismicity data for Karnataka (within 300 km from Karnataka political boundary) were compiled and hazard analysis was done based on this data. Geographically, Karnataka forms a part of peninsular India which is tectonically identified as an intraplate region of Indian plate. Due to the convergent movement of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate, movements are occurring along major intraplate faults resulting in seismic activity of the region and hence the hazard assessment of this region is very important. Apart from referring to seismotectonic atlas for identifying faults and fractures, major lineaments in the study area were also mapped using satellite data. The earthquake events reported by various national and international agencies were collected until 2009. Declustering of earthquake events was done to remove foreshocks and aftershocks. Seismic hazard analysis was done for the state of Karnataka using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches incorporating logic tree methodology. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at rock level was evaluated for the entire state considering a grid size of 0.05A degrees x 0.05A degrees. The attenuation relations proposed for stable continental shield region were used in evaluating the seismic hazard with appropriate weightage factors. Response spectra at rock level for important Tier II cities and Bangalore were evaluated. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values at bedrock are presented in this work.

Integrating biodiversity and conservation with modern agricultural landscapes

To achieve food security and meet the demands of the ever-growing human populations, farming systems have assumed unsustainable practices to produce more from a finite land area. This has been cause for concern mainly due to the often-irreversible damage done to the otherwise productive agricultural landscapes. Agro-ecology is proclaimed to be deteriorating due to eroding integrity of connected ecological mosaics and vulnerability to climate change. This has contributed to declining species diversity, loss of buffer vegetation, fragmentation of habitats, and loss of natural pollinators or predators, which eventually leads to decline in ecosystem services. Currently, a hierarchy of conservation initiatives is being considered to restore ecological integrity of agricultural landscapes. However, the challenge of identifying a suitable conservation strategy is a daunting task in view of socio-ecological factors that may constrain the choice of available strategies. One way to mitigate this situation and integrate biodiversity with agricultural landscapes is to implement offset mechanisms, which are compensatory and balancing approaches to restore the ecological health and function of an ecosystem. This needs to be tailored to the history of location specific agricultural practices, and the social, ecological and environmental conditions. The offset mechanisms can complement other initiatives through which farmers are insured against landscape-level risks such as droughts, fire and floods. For countries in the developing world with significant biodiversity and extensive agriculture, we should promote a comprehensive model of sustainable agricultural landscapes and ecosystem services, replicable at landscape to regional scales. Arguably, the model can be a potential option to sustain the integrity of biodiversity mosaic in agricultural landscapes.

Seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site with detailed geotechnical, geophysical and site effect studies

This paper highlights the seismic microzonation carried out for a nuclear power plant site. Nuclear power plants are considered to be one of the most important and critical structures designed to withstand all natural disasters. Seismic microzonation is a process of demarcating a region into individual areas having different levels of various seismic hazards. This will help in identifying regions having high seismic hazard which is vital for engineering design and land-use planning. The main objective of this paper is to carry out the seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site situated in the east coast of South India, based on the spatial distribution of the hazard index value. The hazard index represents the consolidated effect of all major earthquake hazards and hazard influencing parameters. The present work will provide new directions for assessing the seismic hazards of new power plant sites in the country. Major seismic hazards considered for the evaluation of the hazard index are (1) intensity of ground shaking at bedrock, (2) site amplification, (3) liquefaction potential and (4) the predominant frequency of the earthquake motion at the surface. The intensity of ground shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) was estimated for the study area using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with logic tree methodology. The site characterization of the study area has been carried out using the multichannel analysis of surface waves test and available borehole data. One-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out at major locations within the study area for evaluating PHA and spectral accelerations at the ground surface. Based on the standard penetration test data, deterministic as well as probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis has been carried out for the entire study area. Finally, all the major earthquake hazards estimated above, and other significant parameters representing local geology were integrated using the analytic hierarchy process and hazard index map for the study area was prepared. Maps showing the spatial variation of seismic hazards (intensity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential and predominant frequency) and hazard index are presented in this work.

Co-benefits, trade-offs, barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost-competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case-by-case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land-use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces in the future will influence this process.

Conservation Properties of the Trapezoidal Rule in Linear Time Domain Analysis of Acoustics and Structures

The trapezoidal rule, which is a special case of the Newmark family of algorithms, is one of the most widely used methods for transient hyperbolic problems. In this work, we show that this rule conserves linear and angular momenta and energy in the case of undamped linear elastodynamics problems, and an ``energy-like measure'' in the case of undamped acoustic problems. These conservation properties, thus, provide a rational basis for using this algorithm. In linear elastodynamics problems, variants of the trapezoidal rule that incorporate ``high-frequency'' dissipation are often used, since the higher frequencies, which are not approximated properly by the standard displacement-based approach, often result in unphysical behavior. Instead of modifying the trapezoidal algorithm, we propose using a hybrid finite element framework for constructing the stiffness matrix. Hybrid finite elements, which are based on a two-field variational formulation involving displacement and stresses, are known to approximate the eigenvalues much more accurately than the standard displacement-based approach, thereby either bypassing or reducing the need for high-frequency dissipation. We show this by means of several examples, where we compare the numerical solutions obtained using the displacement-based and hybrid approaches against analytical solutions.

Gasification of wood particles in a co-current packed bed: Experiments and model analysis

This study focuses on addressing the propagation front movement in a co-current downdraft gasification system. A detailed single particle modeling analysis extended to the packed bed reactor is used to compare with the experimental measurement as well those available in the literature. This model for biomass gasification systems considered pyrolysis process, gas phase volatile combustion, and heterogeneous char reactions along with gas phase reactions in the packed bed. The pyrolysis kinetics has a critical influence on the gasification process. The propagation front has been shown to increase with air mass flux, attains a peak and then decreases with further increase in air mass flux and finally approaches negative propagation rate. This indicates that front is receding, or no upward movement() bra her it is moving downward towards the char bed. The propagation rate correlates with mass flux as (m) over dot `'(0.883) during the increasing regimes of the front movement The study clearly identifies that bed movement is an important parameter for consideration in a co-current configuration towards establishing the effective bed movement. The study also highlights the importance of surface area to volume ratio of the particles in the packed bed and its influence on the volatile generation. Finally, the gas composition for air gasification under various air mass fluxes is compared with the experimental results. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.