Decentralized demand-supply matching using community microgrids and consumer demand response: A scenario analysis

Developing countries constantly face the challenge of reliably matching electricity supply to increasing consumer demand. The traditional policy decisions of increasing supply and reducing demand centrally, by building new power plants and/or load shedding, have been insufficient. Locally installed microgrids along with consumer demand response can be suitable decentralized options to augment the centralized grid based systems and plug the demand-supply gap. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) develop a framework to identify the appropriate decentralized energy options for demand supply matching within a community, and, (2) determine which of these options can suitably plug the existing demand-supply gap at varying levels of grid unavailability. A scenario analysis framework is developed to identify and assess the impact of different decentralized energy options at a community level and demonstrated for a typical urban residential community Vijayanagar, Bangalore in India. A combination of LPG based CHP microgrid and proactive demand response by the community is the appropriate option that enables the Vijayanagar community to meet its energy needs 24/7 in a reliable, cost-effective manner. The paper concludes with an enumeration of the barriers and feasible strategies for the implementation of community microgrids in India based on stakeholder inputs. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS ALONG THE TERRAIN GRADIENT OF DIVERSE LANDSCAPE

Land use (LU) land cover (LC) information at a temporal scale illustrates the physical coverage of the Earth's terrestrial surface according to its use and provides the intricate information for effective planning and management activities. LULC changes are stated as local and location specific, collectively they act as drivers of global environmental changes. Understanding and predicting the impact of LULC change processes requires long term historical restorations and projecting into the future of land cover changes at regional to global scales. The present study aims at quantifying spatio temporal landscape dynamics along the gradient of varying terrains presented in the landscape by multi-data approach (MDA). MDA incorporates multi temporal satellite imagery with demographic data and other additional relevant data sets. The gradient covers three different types of topographic features, planes; hilly terrain and coastal region to account the significant role of elevation in land cover change. The seasonality is another aspect to be considered in the vegetation dominated landscapes; variations are accounted using multi seasonal data. Spatial patterns of the various patches are identified and analysed using landscape metrics to understand the forest fragmentation. The prediction of likely changes in 2020 through scenario analysis has been done to account for the changes, considering the present growth rates and due to the proposed developmental projects. This work summarizes recent estimates on changes in cropland, agricultural intensification, deforestation, pasture expansion, and urbanization as the causal factors for LULC change.

Total risk rating and stability analysis of embankment dams in the Kachchh Region, Gujarat, India

A method for total risk analysis of embankment dams under earthquake conditions is discussed and applied to the selected embankment dams, i.e., Chang, Tapar, Rudramata, and Kaswati located in the Kachchh region of Gujarat, India, to obtain the seismic hazard rating of the dam site and the risk rating of the structures. Based on the results of the total risk analysis of the dams, coupled non-linear dynamic numerical analyses of the dam sections are performed using acceleration time history record of the Bhuj (India) earthquake as well as five other major earthquakes recorded worldwide. The objective of doing so is to perform the numerical analysis of the dams for the range of amplitude, frequency content and time duration of input motions. The deformations calculated from the numerical analyses are also compared with other approaches available in literature, viz, Makdisi and Seed (1978) approach, Jansen's approach (1990), Swaisgood's method (1995), Bureau's method (1997). Singh et al. approach (2007), and Saygili and Rathje approach (2008) and the results are utilized to foresee the stability of dams in future earthquake scenario. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Analysis of link-layer backoff schemes on point-to-point Markov fading links

Backoff algorithms are typically employed in multiple-access networks (e.g., Ethernet) to recover from packet collisions. In this letter, we propose and carry out the analysis for three types of link-layer backoff schemes, namely, linear backoff, exponential backoff, and geometric backoff, on point-to-point wireless fading links where packet errors occur nonindependently. In such a scenario, the backoff schemes are shown to achieve better energy efficiency without compromising much on the link layer throughput performance.

Plane wave analysis of rectangular axial-inlet, axial-outlet and transverse-inlet, transverse-outlet air cleaners

In this work, one-dimensional flow-acoustic analysis of two basic configurations of air cleaners, (i) Rectangular Axial-Inlet, Axial-Outlet (RAIAO) and (ii) Rectangular Transverse-Inlet, Transverse-Outlet (RTITO), has been presented. This 1-D analytical approach has been verified with the help of 3-D FEM based software. Through subtraction of the acoustic performance of the bare plenum (without filter element) from that of the complete air cleaner box, the solitary performance of the filter element has been evaluated. Part of the present analysis illustrates that the analytical formulation remains effective even with offset positioning of the air pipes from the centre of the cross section of the air cleaner. The 1-D analytical tool computes much faster than its 3-D simulation counterpart. The present analysis not only predicts the acoustical impact of mean flow, but it also depicts the scenario with increased resistance of the filter element. Thus, the proposed 1-D analysis would help in the design of acoustically efficient air cleaners for automotive applications. (C) 2011 Institute of Noise Control Engineering.

A POSSIBLE EVOLUTIONARY SCENARIO OF HIGHLY MAGNETIZED SUPER-CHANDRASEKHAR WHITE DWARFS: PROGENITORS OF PECULIAR TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE

Several recently discovered peculiar Type Ia supernovae seem to demand an altogether new formation theory that might help explain the puzzling dissimilarities between them and the standard Type Ia supernovae. The most striking aspect of the observational analysis is the necessity of invoking super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs having masses similar to 2.1-2.8 M-circle dot, M-circle dot being the mass of Sun, as their most probable progenitors. Strongly magnetized white dwarfs having super-Chandrasekhar masses have already been established as potential candidates for the progenitors of peculiar Type Ia supernovae. Owing to the Landau quantization of the underlying electron degenerate gas, theoretical results yielded the observationally inferred mass range. Here, we sketch a possible evolutionary scenario by which super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs could be formed by accretion on to a commonly observed magnetized white dwarf, invoking the phenomenon of flux freezing. This opens multiple possible evolution scenarios ending in supernova explosions of super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs having masses within the range stated above. We point out that our proposal has observational support, such as the recent discovery of a large number of magnetized white dwarfs by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.

Performance analysis of adaptive physical layer network coding for wireless two-way relaying

The performance analysis of adaptive physical layer network-coded two-way relaying scenario is presented which employs two phases: Multiple access (MA) phase and Broadcast (BC) phase. The deep channel fade conditions which occur at the relay referred as the singular fade states fall in the following two classes: (i) removable and (ii) non-removable singular fade states. With every singular fade state, we associate an error probability that the relay transmits a wrong network-coded symbol during the BC phase. It is shown that adaptive network coding provides a coding gain over fixed network coding, by making the error probabilities associated with the removable singular fade states contributing to the average Symbol Error Rate (SER) fall as SNR-2 instead of SNR-1. A high SNR upper-bound on the average end-to-end SER for the adaptive network coding scheme is derived, for a Rician fading scenario, which is found to be tight through simulations. Specifically, it is shown that for the adaptive network coding scheme, the probability that the relay node transmits a wrong network-coded symbol is upper-bounded by twice the average SER of a point-to-point fading channel, at high SNR. Also, it is shown that in a Rician fading scenario, it suffices to remove the effect of only those singular fade states which contribute dominantly to the average SER.

Phylogenetic analysis and molecular dating suggest that hemidactylus anamallensis is not a member of the hemidactylus radiation and has an ancient late cretaceous origin

Background of the Work: The phylogenetic position and evolution of Hemidactylus anamallensis (family Gekkonidae) has been much debated in recent times. In the past it has been variously assigned to genus Hoplodactylus (Diplodactylidae) as well as a monotypic genus `Dravidogecko' (Gekkonidae). Since 1995, this species has been assigned to Hemidactylus, but there is much disagreement between authors regarding its phylogenetic position within this genus. In a recent molecular study H. anamallensis was sister to Hemidactylus but appeared distinct from it in both mitochondrial and nuclear markers. However, this study did not include genera closely allied to Hemidactylus, thus a robust evaluation of this hypothesis was not undertaken. Methods: The objective of this study was to investigate the phylogenetic position of H. anamallensis within the gekkonid radiation. To this end, several nuclear and mitochondrial markers were sequenced from H. anamallensis, selected members of the Hemidactylus radiation and genera closely allied to Hemidactylus. These sequences in conjunction with published sequences were subjected to multiple phylogenetic analyses. Furthermore the nuclear dataset was also subjected to molecular dating analysis to ascertain the divergence between H. anamallensis and related genera. Results and Conclusion: Results showed that H. anamallensis lineage was indeed sister to Hemidactylus group but was separated from the rest of the Hemidactylus by a long branch. The divergence estimates supported a scenario wherein H. anamallensis dispersed across a marine barrier to the drifting peninsular Indian plate in the late Cretaceous whereas Hemidactylus arrived on the peninsular India after the Indian plate collided with the Eurasian plate. Based on these molecular evidence and biogeographical scenario we suggest that the genus Dravidogecko should be resurrected.

Design and Analysis of an Acknowledgment-Aware Asynchronous MPR MAC Protocol for Distributed WLANs

Multi-packet reception (MPR) promises significant throughput gains in wireless local area networks (WLANs) by allowing nodes to transmit even in the presence of ongoing transmissions in the medium. However, the medium access control (MAC) layer must now be redesigned to facilitate rather than discourage - these overlapping transmissions. We investigate asynchronous MPR MAC protocols, which successfully accomplish this by controlling the node behavior based on the number of ongoing transmissions in the channel. The protocols use the backoff timer mechanism of the distributed coordination function, which makes them practically appealing. We first highlight a unique problem of acknowledgment delays, which arises in asynchronous MPR, and investigate a solution that modifies the medium access rules to reduce these delays and increase system throughput in the single receiver scenario. We develop a general renewal-theoretic fixed-point analysis that leads to expressions for the saturation throughput, packet dropping probability, and average head-of-line packet delay. We also model and analyze the practical scenario in which nodes may incorrectly estimate the number of ongoing transmissions.

Performance analysis of adaptive physical layer network coding for wireless two-way Relaying

The analysis of modulation schemes for the physical layer network-coded two way relaying scenario is presented which employs two phases: Multiple access (MA) phase and Broadcast (BC) phase. Depending on the signal set used at the end nodes, the minimum distance of the effective constellation seen at the relay becomes zero for a finite number of channel fade states referred as the singular fade states. The singular fade states fall into the following two classes: (i) the ones which are caused due to channel outage and whose harmful effect cannot be mitigated by adaptive network coding called the non-removable singular fade states and (ii) the ones which occur due to the choice of the signal set and whose harmful effects can be removed called the removable singular fade states. In this paper, we derive an upper bound on the average end-to-end Symbol Error Rate (SER), with and without adaptive network coding at the relay, for a Rician fading scenario. It is shown that without adaptive network coding, at high Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR), the contribution to the end-to-end SER comes from the following error events which fall as SNR-1: the error events associated with the removable and nonremovable singular fade states and the error event during the BC phase. In contrast, for the adaptive network coding scheme, the error events associated with the removable singular fade states fall as SNR-2, thereby providing a coding gain over the case when adaptive network coding is not used. Also, it is shown that for a Rician fading channel, the error during the MA phase dominates over the error during the BC phase. Hence, adaptive network coding, which improves the performance during the MA phase provides more gain in a Rician fading scenario than in a Rayleigh fading scenario. Furthermore, it is shown that for large Rician factors, among those removable singular fade states which have the same magnitude, those which have the least absolute value of the phase - ngle alone contribute dominantly to the end-to-end SER and it is sufficient to remove the effect of only such singular fade states.

Formulation of a mathematical approach to regional frequency analysis

Estimation of design quantiles of hydrometeorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on index-flood approach and L-moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real-world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach (PA) in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the PA outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.

Curvature based mobility analysis and form closure of smooth planar curves with multiple contacts

This paper presents a simple second-order, curvature based mobility analysis of planar curves in contact. The underlying theory deals with penetration and separation of curves with multiple contacts, based on relative configuration of osculating circles at points of contact for a second-order rotation about each point of the plane. Geometric and analytical treatment of mobility analysis is presented for generic as well as special contact geometries. For objects with a single contact, partitioning of the plane into four types of mobility regions has been shown. Using point based composition operations based on dual-number matrices, analysis has been extended to computationally handle multiple contacts scenario. A novel color coded directed line has been proposed to capture the contact scenario. Multiple contacts mobility is obtained through intersection of the mobility half-spaces. It is derived that mobility region comprises a pair of unbounded or a single bounded convex polygon. The theory has been used for analysis and synthesis of form closure configurations, revolute and prismatic kinematic pairs. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

Analysis of Evader Survivability Enhancement by Decoy Deployment

In this paper, the strategy of an evader using a decoy, against a pursuer in a planar engagement scenario, is considered. The decoy launch angle (decoy heading) and decoy launch time are the decision variables. An analytic expression is derived for the range of decoy launch angles, as a function of launch time that guarantees the effectiveness of the decoy in luring the pursuer. This is used to define an effective launch envelope for the decoy. Extensive simulation studies are carried out for different decoy launch angles and launch time. The simulation results closely match the analytical results.