On the recurrence of great subduction zone earthquakes

The last decade has witnessed two unusually large tsunamigenic earthquakes. The devastation from the 2004 Sumatra Andaman and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquakes (both of moment magnitude >= 9.0) and their ensuing tsunamis comes as a harsh reminder on the need to assess and mitigate coastal hazards due to earthquakes and tsunamis worldwide. Along any given subduction zone, megathrust tsunamigenic earthquakes occur over intervals considerably longer than their documented histories and thus, 2004-type events may appear totally `out of the blue'. In order to understand and assess the risk from tsunamis, we need to know their long-term frequency and magnitude, going beyond documented history, to recent geological records. The ability to do this depends on our knowledge of the processes that govern subduction zones, their responses to interseismic and coseismic deformation, and on our expertise to identify and relate tsunami deposits to earthquake sources. In this article, we review the current state of understanding on the recurrence of great thrust earthquakes along global subduction zones.

Paleoseismological evidence of surface faulting along the northeastern Himalayan front, India: Timing, size, and spatial extent of great earthquakes

The similar to 2500 km long Himalayan arc has experienced three large to great earthquakes of M-w 7.8 to 8.4 during the past century, but none produced surface rupture. Paleoseismic studies have been conducted during the last decade to begin understanding the timing, size, rupture extent, return period, and mechanics of the faulting associated with the occurrence of large surface rupturing earthquakes along the similar to 2500 km long Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) system of India and Nepal. The previous studies have been limited to about nine sites along the western two-thirds of the HFT extending through northwest India and along the southern border of Nepal. We present here the results of paleoseismic investigations at three additional sites further to the northeast along the HFT within the Indian states of West Bengal and Assam. The three sites reside between the meizoseismal areas of the 1934 Bihar-Nepal and 1950 Assam earthquakes. The two westernmost of the sites, near the village of Chalsa and near the Nameri Tiger Preserve, show that offsets during the last surface rupture event were at minimum of about 14 m and 12 m, respectively. Limits on the ages of surface rupture at Chalsa (site A) and Nameri (site B), though broad, allow the possibility that the two sites record the same great historical rupture reported in Nepal around A.D. 1100. The correlation between the two sites is supported by the observation that the large displacements as recorded at Chalsa and Nameri would most likely be associated with rupture lengths of hundreds of kilometers or more and are on the same order as reported for a surface rupture earthquake reported in Nepal around A.D. 1100. Assuming the offsets observed at Chalsa and Nameri occurred synchronously with reported offsets in Nepal, the rupture length of the event would approach 700 to 800 km. The easternmost site is located within Harmutty Tea Estate (site C) at the edges of the 1950 Assam earthquake meizoseismal area. Here the most recent event offset is relatively much smaller (<2.5 m), and radiocarbon dating shows it to have occurred after A.D. 1100 (after about A.D. 1270). The location of the site near the edge of the meizoseismal region of the 1950 Assam earthquake and the relatively lesser offset allows speculation that the displacement records the 1950 M-w 8.4 Assam earthquake. Scatter in radiocarbon ages on detrital charcoal has not resulted in a firm bracket on the timing of events observed in the trenches. Nonetheless, the observations collected here, when taken together, suggest that the largest of thrust earthquakes along the Himalayan arc have rupture lengths and displacements of similar scale to the largest that have occurred historically along the world's subduction zones.

Counterclockwise exhumation of a hot orogen: The Paleoproterozoic ultrahigh-temperature granulites in the North China Craton

Regional metamorphic belts provide important constraints on the plate tectonic architecture of orogens. We report here a detailed petrologic examination of the sapphirine-bearing ultra-high temperature (UHT) granulites from the Jining Complex within the Khondalite Belt of the North China Craton (NCC). These granulites carry diagnostic UHT assemblages and their microstructures provide robust evidence to trace the prograde, peak and retrograde metamorphic evolution. The P–T conditions of the granulites estimated from XMgGrt(Mg/Fe + Mg) − XMgSpr isopleth calculations indicate temperature above 970 °C and pressures close to 7 kbar. We present phase diagrams based on thermodynamic computations to evaluate the mineral assemblages and microstructures and trace the metamorphic trajectory of the rocks. The evolution from Spl–Qtz–Ilm–Crd–Grt–Sil to Spr–Qtz–Crd–Opx–Ilm marks the prograde stage. The Spl–Qtz assemblage appears on the low-pressure side of the P–T space with Spr–Qtz stable at the high-pressure side, possibly representing an increase in pressure corresponding to compression. The spectacular development of sapphirine rims around spinel enclosed in quartz supports this inference. An evaluation of the key UHT assemblages based on model proportion calculation suggests a counterclockwise P–T path. With few exceptions, granulite-facies rocks developed along collisional metamorphic zones have generally been characterized by clockwise exhumation trajectories. Recent evaluation of the P–T paths of metamorphic rocks developed within collisional orogens indicates that in many cases the exhumation trajectories follow the model subduction geotherm, in accordance with a tectonic model in which the metamorphic rocks are subducted and exhumed along a plate boundary. The timing of UHT metamorphism in the NCC (c. 1.92 Ga) coincides with the assembly of the NCC within the Paleoproterozoic Columbia supercontinent, a process that would have involved subduction of passive margins sediments and closure of the intervening ocean. Thus, the counterclockwise P–T path obtained in this study correlates well with a tectonic model involving subduction and final collisional suturing, with the UHT granulites representing the core of the hot or ultra-hot orogen developed during Columbia amalgamation.

Coherent rainfall zones: Case study for Karnataka

Generally average rainfall over meteorological subdivisions is used for assessment of the variability of monsoon rainfall. It is shown here that variations of seasonal rainfall over the meteorological subdivisions of interior Karnataka are not coherent. A methodology for delineating coherent rainfall zones is developed in this paper and applied to derive such zones for the State of Karnataka.

Coherent rainfall zones of the Indian region

We have delineated rainfall zones for the Indian region that are coherent with respect to the variations of the summer monsoon rainfall. Within each zone, the time series of the summer monsoon rainfall at every pair of stations are significantly positively correlated, and the mean interseries correlation for each zone is high. The interseries correlation data set is analysed in order to delineate the rainfall zones, using an objective method specifically developed for the purpose. Each of the zonal averages are shown to be representative of the zone as a whole. We suggest that this regionalization is appropriate for study of the variation of the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region on interannual and larger scales.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

Barriers to plantation activities in different agro-ecological zones of Southern India

This paper analyses environmental and socio-economic barriers for plantation activities on local and regional level and investigates the potential for carbon finance to stimulate the increased rates of forest plantation on wasteland, i.e., degraded lands, in southern India. Building on multidisciplinary field work and results from the model GCOMAP, the aim is to (1) identify and characterize the barriers to plantation activities in four agro-ecological zones in the state of Karnataka and (2) investigate what would be required to overcome these barriers and enhance the plantation rate and productivity. The results show that a rehabilitation of the wasteland based on plantation activities is not only possible but also anticipated by the local population and would lead to positive environmental and socio-economic effects at a local level. However, in many cases, the establishment of plantation activities is hindered by a lack of financial resources, low land productivity and water scarcity. Based on the model used and the results from the field work, it can be concluded that certified emission reductions such as carbon credits or other compensatory systems may help to overcome the financial barrier; however, the price needs to be significantly increased if these measures are to have any large-scale impact.

The hazard potential of the western segment of the Makran subduction zone, northern Arabian Sea

Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past-a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600 years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000 years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake.

High-temperature, high-pressure granulites (retrogressed eclogites) in the central region of the Lewisian, NW Scotland: Crustal-scale subduction in the Neoarchaean

Eclogites and associated high-pressure (HP) rocks in collisional and accretionary orogenic belts preserve a record of subduction and exhumation, and provide a key constraint on the tectonic evolution of the continents. Most eclogites that formed at high pressures but low temperatures at > 10-11 kbar and 450-650 degrees C can be interpreted as a result of subduction of cold oceanic lithosphere. A new class of high-temperature (HT) eclogites that formed above 900 degrees C and at 14 to 30 kbar occurs in the deep continental crust, but their geodynamic significance and processes of formation are poorly understood. Here we show that Neoarchaean mafic-ultramafic complexes in the central granulite facies region of the Lewisian in NW Scotland contain HP/HT garnet-bearing granulites (retrogressed eclogites), gabbros, Iherzolites, and websterites, and that the HP granulites have garnets that contain inclusions of omphacite. From thermodynamic modeling and compositional isopleths we calculate that peak eclogite-facies metamorphism took place at 24-22 kbar and 1060-1040 degrees C. The geochemical signature of one (G-21) of the samples shows a strong depletion of Eu indicating magma fractionation at a crustal level. The Sm-Nd isochron ages of HP phases record different cooling ages of ca. 2480 and 2330 Ma. We suggest that the layered mafic-ultramafic complexes, which may have formed in an oceanic environment, were subducted to eclogite depths, and exhumed as HP garnet-bearing orogenic peridotites. The layered complexes were engulfed by widespread orthogneisses of tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) composition with granulite facies assemblages. We propose two possible tectonic models: (1) the fact that the relicts of eclogitic complexes are so widespread in the Scourian can be taken as evidence that a >90 km x 40 km-size slab of continental crust containing mafic-ultramafic complexes was subducted to at least 70 km depth in the late Archaean. During exhumation the gneiss protoliths were retrogressed to granulite facies assemblages, but the mafic-ultramafic rocks resisted retrogression. (2) The layered complexes of mafic and ultramafic rocks were subducted to eclogite-facies depths and during exhumation under crustal conditions they were intruded by the orthogneiss protoliths (TTG) that were metamorphosed in the granulite facies. Apart from poorly defined UHP metamorphic rocks in Norway, the retrogressed eclogites in the central granulite/retrogressed eclogite facies Lewisian region, NW Scotland have the highest crustal pressures so far reported for Archaean rocks, and demonstrate that lithospheric subduction was transporting crustal rocks to HP depths in the Neoarchaean. (C) 2012 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cavitation in materials with distributed weak zones: Implications on the origin of brittle fracture in metallic glasses

Several experimental studies have shown that fracture surfaces in brittle metallic glasses (MGs) generally exhibit nanoscale corrugations which may be attributed to the nucleation and coalescence of nanovoids during crack propagation. Recent atomistic simulations suggest that this phenomenon is due to large spatial fluctuations in material properties in a brittle MG, which leads to void nucleation in regions of low atomic density and then catastrophic fracture through void coalescence. To explain this behavior, we propose a model of a heterogeneous solid containing a distribution of weak zones to represent a brittle MG. Plane strain continuum finite element analysis of cavitation in such an elastic-plastic solid is performed with the weak zones idealized as periodically distributed regions having lower yield strength than the background material. It is found that the presence of weak zones can significantly reduce the critical hydrostatic stress for the onset of cavitation which is controlled uniquely by the local yield properties of these zones. Also, the presence of weak zones diminishes the sensitivity of the cavitation stress to the volume fraction of a preexisting void. These results provide plausible explanations for the observations reported in recent atomistic simulations of brittle MGs. An analytical solution for a composite, incompressible elastic-plastic solid with a weak inner core is used to investigate the effect of volume fraction and yield strength of the core on the nature of cavitation bifurcation. It is shown that snap-cavitation may occur, giving rise to sudden formation of voids with finite size, which does not happen in a homogeneous plastic solid. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chromite-silicate chemistry of the Neoarchean Sittampundi Complex, southern India: Implications for subduction-related arc magmatism

The Neoarchean layered anorthositic complex at Sittampundi in southern India is known for its chromitite layers that are mostly associated with anorthosite (An(90-100)). The chromitites contain FeAl-rich chromites concentrated in layers between amphibole-rich layers with a dominant mineralogy of amphibole-spinel-plagiocase+/-sapphirine. The chromite-rich layers contain only amphibole and plagioclase. Mineral compositions illustrated by X-ray composition maps and profiles show subtle chemical differences. The chrome spinels are of refractory grade with Cr2O3 and Al2O3 contents varying between 34-40 wt.% and 23-28 wt.%. The chromite compositions are noticeably different from those in layered igneous intrusions of the Bushveld-Stillwater type. The existence of original highly calcic plagioclase, FeAl-rich chromite, and magmatic amphibole is consistent with derivation from a parental magma of hydrous tholeiitic composition that was most likely generated in a supra-subduction zone arc setting. In terms of mineralogy and field relations, the Sittampundi chromitites are remarkably similar to anorthosite-hosted chromitites in the Neoarchean Fiskensset anorthositic complex, Greenland. We propose that the Sittampundi chromitites formed by partial melting of unusually aluminous harzburgite in a hydrated mantle wedge above a subduction zone. This melting process produced hydrous, aluminous basalt, which fractionated at depth to give rise to a variety of high-alumina basalt compositions from which the anorthositic complex with its cumulate chromite-rich and amphibole-rich layers formed within the magma chamber of a supra-subduction zone arc. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Delineation of seismic source zones based on seismicity parameters and probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard using logic tree approach

The delineation of seismic source zones plays an important role in the evaluation of seismic hazard. In most of the studies the seismic source delineation is done based on geological features. In the present study, an attempt has been made to delineate seismic source zones in the study area (south India) based on the seismicity parameters. Seismicity parameters and the maximum probable earthquake for these source zones were evaluated and were used in the hazard evaluation. The probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard for south India was carried out using a logic tree approach. Two different types of seismic sources, linear and areal, were considered in the present study to model the seismic sources in the region more precisely. In order to properly account for the attenuation characteristics of the region, three different attenuation relations were used with different weightage factors. Seismic hazard evaluation was done for the probability of exceedance (PE) of 10% and 2% in 50 years. The spatial variation of rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values corresponding to return periods of 475 and 2500 years for the entire study area are presented in this work. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at ground surface level were estimated based on different NEHRP site classes by considering local site effects.