Updating reliability models of statically loaded instrumented structures

The study extends the first order reliability method (FORM) and inverse FORM to update reliability models for existing, statically loaded structures based on measured responses. Solutions based on Bayes' theorem, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, and inverse reliability analysis are developed. The case of linear systems with Gaussian uncertainties and linear performance functions is shown to be exactly solvable. FORM and inverse reliability based methods are subsequently developed to deal with more general problems. The proposed procedures are implemented by combining Matlab based reliability modules with finite element models residing on the Abaqus software. Numerical illustrations on linear and nonlinear frames are presented. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability models for existing structures based on dynamic state estimation and data based asymptotic extreme value analysis

The problem of time variant reliability analysis of existing structures subjected to stationary random dynamic excitations is considered. The study assumes that samples of dynamic response of the structure, under the action of external excitations, have been measured at a set of sparse points on the structure. The utilization of these measurements m in updating reliability models, postulated prior to making any measurements, is considered. This is achieved by using dynamic state estimation methods which combine results from Markov process theory and Bayes' theorem. The uncertainties present in measurements as well as in the postulated model for the structural behaviour are accounted for. The samples of external excitations are taken to emanate from known stochastic models and allowance is made for ability (or lack of it) to measure the applied excitations. The future reliability of the structure is modeled using expected structural response conditioned on all the measurements made. This expected response is shown to have a time varying mean and a random component that can be treated as being weakly stationary. For linear systems, an approximate analytical solution for the problem of reliability model updating is obtained by combining theories of discrete Kalman filter and level crossing statistics. For the case of nonlinear systems, the problem is tackled by combining particle filtering strategies with data based extreme value analysis. In all these studies, the governing stochastic differential equations are discretized using the strong forms of Ito-Taylor's discretization schemes. The possibility of using conditional simulation strategies, when applied external actions are measured, is also considered. The proposed procedures are exemplifiedmby considering the reliability analysis of a few low-dimensional dynamical systems based on synthetically generated measurement data. The performance of the procedures developed is also assessed based on a limited amount of pertinent Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Survey Of Software Dependability

This paper presents on overview of the issues in precisely defining, specifying and evaluating the dependability of software, particularly in the context of computer controlled process systems. Dependability is intended to be a generic term embodying various quality factors and is useful for both software and hardware. While the developments in quality assurance and reliability theories have proceeded mostly in independent directions for hardware and software systems, we present here the case for developing a unified framework of dependability—a facet of operational effectiveness of modern technological systems, and develop a hierarchical systems model helpful in clarifying this view. In the second half of the paper, we survey the models and methods available for measuring and improving software reliability. The nature of software “bugs”, the failure history of the software system in the various phases of its lifecycle, the reliability growth in the development phase, estimation of the number of errors remaining in the operational phase, and the complexity of the debugging process have all been considered to varying degrees of detail. We also discuss the notion of software fault-tolerance, methods of achieving the same, and the status of other measures of software dependability such as maintainability, availability and safety.

NUVIEW:software for display and interactive manipulation of nucleic acid models

The NUVIEW software package allows skeletal models of any double helical nucleic acid molecule to be displayed out a graphics monitor and to apply various rotations, translations and scaling transformations interactively, through the keyboard. The skeletal model is generated by connecting any pair of representative points, one from each of the bases in the basepair. In addition to the above mentioned manipulations, the base residues can be identified by using a locator and the distance between any pair of residues can be obtained. A sequence based color coded display allows easy identification of sequence repeats, such as runs of Adenines. The real time interactive manipulation of such skeletal models for large DNA/RNA double helices, can be used to trace the path of the nucleic acid chain in three dimensions and hence get a better idea of its topology, location of linear or curved regions, distances between far off regions in the sequence etc. A physical picture of these features will assist in understanding the relationship between base sequence, structure and biological function in nucleic acids.

Improved Algorithms for Reservoir Capacity Calculation Incorporating Storage-Dependent Losses and Reliability Norm

Two algorithms that improve upon the sequent-peak procedure for reservoir capacity calculation are presented. The first incorporates storage-dependent losses (like evaporation losses) exactly as the standard linear programming formulation does. The second extends the first so as to enable designing with less than maximum reliability even when allowable shortfall in any failure year is also specified. Together, the algorithms provide a more accurate, flexible and yet fast method of calculating the storage capacity requirement in preliminary screening and optimization models.

Design of laterally loaded piles in clays based on cone penetration test data: a reliability-based approach

The behaviour of laterally loaded piles is considerably influenced by the uncertainties in soil properties. Hence probabilistic models for assessment of allowable lateral load are necessary. Cone penetration test (CPT) data are often used to determine soil strength parameters, whereby the allowable lateral load of the pile is computed. In the present study, the maximum lateral displacement and moment of the pile are obtained based on the coefficient of subgrade reaction approach, considering the nonlinear soil behaviour in undrained clay. The coefficient of subgrade reaction is related to the undrained shear strength of soil, which can be obtained from CPT data. The soil medium is modelled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth, and it is described by the standard deviation and scale of fluctuation of the undrained shear strength of soil. Inherent soil variability, measurement uncertainty and transformation uncertainty are taken into consideration. The statistics of maximum lateral deflection and moment are obtained using the first-order, second-moment technique. Hasofer-Lind reliability indices for component and system failure criteria, based on the allowable lateral displacement and moment capacity of the pile section, are evaluated. The geotechnical database from the Konaseema site in India is used as a case example. It is shown that the reliability-based design approach for pile foundations, considering the spatial variability of soil, permits a rational choice of allowable lateral loads.

Queuing Models for Estimating Aircraft Fleet Availability

The availability of a small fleet of aircraft in a flying-base, repair-depot combination is modeled and studied. First, a deterministic flow model relates parameters of interest and represents the state-of-the art in the planning of such systems. Second, a cyclic queue model shows the effect of the principal uncertainties in operation and repair and shows the consequent decrease in the availability of aircraft at the flying-base. Several options such as increasing fleet size, investments in additional repair facilities, or building reliability and maintainability into the individual aircraft during its life-cycle are open for increasing the availability. A life-cycle cost criterion brings out some of these features. Numerical results confirm Rose's prediction that there exists a minimal cost combination of end products and repair-depot capability to achieve a prescribed operational availability.

Performance reliability of high-maintenance systems

The time–history of the performance of a system is treated as a stochastic corrective process, in which deterioration due to aging is counteracted at brief maintenance checks. Using a diffusion approximation for the deterioration, simple models are proposed for describing maintenance either by component replacement or by performance restoration. Equilibrium solutions of the models show that the performance has a probability distribution with exponential tails: the uncritical use of Gaussians can grossly underestimate the probability of poor performance. The proposed models are supported by recent observational evidence on aircraft track-keeping errors, which are shown to follow the modified exponential distribution derived here. The analysis also brings out the relation between the deterioration characteristics of the system and the intensity of the maintenance effort required to achieve a given performance reliability.

NUPARM and NUCGEN: software for analysis and generation of sequence dependent nucleic acid structures

Software packages NUPARM and NUCGEN, are described, which can be used to understand sequence directed structural variations in nucleic acids, by analysis and generation of non-uniform structures. A set of local inter basepair parameters (viz. tilt, roll, twist, shift, slide and rise) have been defined, which use geometry and coordinates of two successive basepairs only and can be used to generate polymeric structures with varying geometries for each of the 16 possible dinucleotide steps. Intra basepair parameters, propeller, buckle, opening and the C6...C8 distance can also be varied, if required, while the sugar phosphate backbone atoms are fixed in some standard conformation ill each of the nucleotides. NUPARM can be used to analyse both DNA and RNA structures, with single as well as double stranded helices. The NUCGEN software generates double helical models with the backbone fixed in B-form DNA, but with appropriate modifications in the input data, it can also generate A-form DNA ar rd RNA duplex structures.

Studies on design, fabrication and reliability assessment of embedded passives on a high-density interconnect (HDI) organic substrate using a sequential build-up process

One of the foremost design considerations in microelectronics miniaturization is the use of embedded passives which provide practical solution. In a typical circuit, over 80 percent of the electronic components are passives such as resistors, inductors, and capacitors that could take up to almost 50 percent of the entire printed circuit board area. By integrating passive components within the substrate instead of being on the surface, embedded passives reduce the system real estate, eliminate the need for discrete and assembly, enhance electrical performance and reliability, and potentially reduce the overall cost. Moreover, it is lead free. Even with these advantages, embedded passive technology is at a relatively immature stage and more characterization and optimization are needed for practical applications leading to its commercialization.This paper presents an entire process from design and fabrication to electrical characterization and reliability test of embedded passives on multilayered microvia organic substrate. Two test vehicles focusing on resistors and capacitors have been designed and fabricated. Embedded capacitors in this study are made with polymer/ceramic nanocomposite (BaTiO3) material to take advantage of low processing temperature of polymers and relatively high dielectric constant of ceramics and the values of these capacitors range from 50 pF to 1.5 nF with capacitance per area of approximately 1.5 nF/cm(2). Limited high frequency measurement of these capacitors was performed. Furthermore, reliability assessments of thermal shock and temperature humidity tests based on JEDEC standards were carried out. Resistors used in this work have been of three types: 1) carbon ink based polymer thick film (PTF), 2) resistor foils with known sheet resistivities which are laminated to printed wiring board (PWB) during a sequential build-up (SBU) process and 3) thin-film resistor plating by electroless method. Realization of embedded resistors on conventional board-level high-loss epoxy (similar to 0.015 at 1 GHz) and proposed low-loss BCB dielectric (similar to 0.0008 at > 40 GHz) has been explored in this study. Ni-P and Ni-W-P alloys were plated using conventional electroless plating, and NiCr and NiCrAlSi foils were used for the foil transfer process. For the first time, Benzocyclobutene (BCB) has been proposed as a board level dielectric for advanced System-on-Package (SOP) module primarily due to its attractive low-loss (for RF application) and thin film (for high density wiring) properties.Although embedded passives are more reliable by eliminating solder joint interconnects, they also introduce other concerns such as cracks, delamination and component instability. More layers may be needed to accommodate the embedded passives, and various materials within the substrate may cause significant thermo -mechanical stress due to coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) mismatch. In this work, numerical models of embedded capacitors have been developed to qualitatively examine the effects of process conditions and electrical performance due to thermo-mechanical deformations.Also, a prototype working product with the board level design including features of embedded resistors and capacitors are underway. Preliminary results of these are presented.

Prediction of inplane damping from deterministic and stochastic models

This paper reviews computational reliability, computer algebra, stochastic stability and rotating frame turbulence (RFT) in the context of predicting the blade inplane mode stability, a mode which is at best weakly damped. Computational reliability can be built into routine Floquet analysis involving trim analysis and eigenanalysis, and a highly portable special purpose processor restricted to rotorcraft dynamics analysis is found to be more economical than a multipurpose processor. While the RFT effects are dominant in turbulence modeling, the finding that turbulence stabilizes the inplane mode is based on the assumption that turbulence is white noise.

Composite Performance and Reliability Analysis for Hypercube Systems

In this paper we propose a novel technique to model and ana¿ lyze the performability of parallel and distributed architectures using GSPN-reward models.

Modeling Architecture-OS interactions using Layered Queuing Network Models

The prevalent virtualization technologies provide QoS support within the software layers of the virtual machine monitor(VMM) or the operating system of the virtual machine(VM). The QoS features are mostly provided as extensions to the existing software used for accessing the I/O device because of which the applications sharing the I/O device experience loss of performance due to crosstalk effects or usable bandwidth. In this paper we examine the NIC sharing effects across VMs on a Xen virtualized server and present an alternate paradigm that improves the shared bandwidth and reduces the crosstalk effect on the VMs. We implement the proposed hardwaresoftware changes in a layered queuing network (LQN) model and use simulation techniques to evaluate the architecture. We find that simple changes in the device architecture and associated system software lead to application throughput improvement of up to 60%. The architecture also enables finer QoS controls at device level and increases the scalability of device sharing across multiple virtual machines. We find that the performance improvement derived using LQN model is comparable to that reported by similar but real implementations.

Low-Complexity Detection in Large-Dimension MIMO-ISI Channels Using Graphical Models

In this paper, we deal with low-complexity near-optimal detection/equalization in large-dimension multiple-input multiple-output inter-symbol interference (MIMO-ISI) channels using message passing on graphical models. A key contribution in the paper is the demonstration that near-optimal performance in MIMO-ISI channels with large dimensions can be achieved at low complexities through simple yet effective simplifications/approximations, although the graphical models that represent MIMO-ISI channels are fully/densely connected (loopy graphs). These include 1) use of Markov random field (MRF)-based graphical model with pairwise interaction, in conjunction with message damping, and 2) use of factor graph (FG)-based graphical model with Gaussian approximation of interference (GAI). The per-symbol complexities are O(K(2)n(t)(2)) and O(Kn(t)) for the MRF and the FG with GAI approaches, respectively, where K and n(t) denote the number of channel uses per frame, and number of transmit antennas, respectively. These low-complexities are quite attractive for large dimensions, i.e., for large Kn(t). From a performance perspective, these algorithms are even more interesting in large-dimensions since they achieve increasingly closer to optimum detection performance for increasing Kn(t). Also, we show that these message passing algorithms can be used in an iterative manner with local neighborhood search algorithms to improve the reliability/performance of M-QAM symbol detection.

Queuing Network Models for Aircraft Availability and Spares Management

Interactions of major activities involved in airfleet operations, maintenance, and logistics are investigated in the framework of closed queuing networks with finite number of customers. The system is viewed at three levels, namely: operations at the flying-base, maintenance at the repair-depot, and logistics for subsystems and their interactions in achieving the system objectives. Several performance measures (eg, availability of aircraft at the flying-base, mean number of aircraft on ground at different stages of repair, use of repair facilities, and mean time an aircraft spends in various stages of repair) can easily be computed in this framework. At the subsystem level the quantities of interest are the unavailability (probability of stockout) of a spare and the duration of its unavailability. The repair-depot capability is affected by the unavailability of a spare which in turn, adversely affects the availability of aircraft at the flying-base level. Examples illustrate the utility of the proposed models.