The credit risk(+) model with general sector correlations

We consider an enhancement of the credit risk+ model to incorporate correlations between sectors. We model the sector default rates as linear combinations of a common set of independent variables that represent macro-economic variables or risk factors. We also derive the formula for exact VaR contributions at the obligor level.

Risk Minimizing Option Pricing in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market

We address risk minimizing option pricing in a semi-Markov modulated market where the floating interest rate depends on a finite state semi-Markov process. The growth rate and the volatility of the stock also depend on the semi-Markov process. Using the Föllmer–Schweizer decomposition we find the locally risk minimizing price for European options and the corresponding hedging strategy. We develop suitable numerical methods for computing option prices.

Karnaugh map analysis and synthesis of threshold functions

A unate function can easily be identified on a Karnaugh map from the well-known property that it cons ist s only ofess en ti al prime implicante which intersect at a common implicant. The additional property that the plot of a unate function F(x, ... XII) on a Karnaugh map should possess in order that F may also be Ivrealizable (n';:; 6) has been found. It has been sh own that the I- realizability of a unate function F corresponds to the ' compac tness' of the plot of F. No resort to tho inequalities is made, and no pre-processing such as positivizing and ordering of the given function is required.

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA)problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max-min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in India.

The potential of certification for conservation and management of wild MAP resources

Medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) are an integral part of our biodiversity. In majority of MAP rich countries, wild collection practices are the livelihood options for a large number of rural peoples and MAPs play a significant role in socio-economic development of their communities. Recent concern over the alarming situation of the status of wild MAP resources, raw material quality, as well as social exploitation of rural communities, leads to the idea of certification for MAP resource conservation and management. On one hand, while MAP certification addresses environmental, social and economic perspectives of MAP resources, on the other hand, it ensures multi-stakeholder participation in improvement of the MAP sector. This paper presents an overview of MAP certification encompassing its different parameters, current scenario (Indian background), implementation strategies as well as stakeholders’ role in MAP conservation. It also highlights Indian initiatives in this direction.

Analysis of the MAP/G(a,b)/1/N queue with multiple vacations

This paper deals with a batch service queue and multiple vacations. The system consists of a single server and a waiting room of finite capacity. Arrival of customers follows a Markovian arrival process (MAP). The server is unavailable for occasional intervals of time called vacations, and when it is available, customers are served in batches of maximum size ‘b’ with a minimum threshold value ‘a’. We obtain the queue length distributions at various epochs along with some key performance measures. Finally, some numerical results have been presented.

Critical lattice size limit for synchronized chaotic state in one- and two-dimensional diffusively coupled map lattices

We consider diffusively coupled map lattices with P neighbors (where P is arbitrary) and study the stability of the synchronized state. We show that there exists a critical lattice size beyond which the synchronized state is unstable. This generalizes earlier results for nearest neighbor coupling. We confirm the analytical results by performing numerical simulations on coupled map lattices with logistic map at each node. The above analysis is also extended to two-dimensional P-neighbor diffusively coupled map lattices.

A Haplotype at the UCP1 Gene Locus Contributes to Genetic Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in Asian Indians (CURES-72)

Background: The gene encoding for uncoupling protein-1 (UCP1) is considered to be a candidate gene for type 2 diabetes because of its role in thermogenesis and energy expenditure. The objective of the study was to examine whether genetic variations in the UCP1 gene are associated with type 2 diabetes and its related traits in Asian Indians. Methods: The study subjects, 810 type 2 diabetic subjects and 990 normal glucose tolerant (NGT) subjects, were chosen from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiological Study (CURES), an ongoing population-based study in southern India. The polymorphisms were genotyped using the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) was estimated from the estimates of haplotypic frequencies. Results: The three polymorphisms, namely -3826A -> G, an A -> C transition in the 5'-untranslated region (UTR) and Met229Leu, were not associated with type 2 diabetes. However, the frequency of the A-C-Met (-3826A -> G-5'UTR A -> C-Met229Leu) haplotype was significantly higher among the type 2 diabetic subjects (2.67%) compared with the NGT subjects (1.45%, P < 0.01). The odds ratio for type 2 diabetes for the individuals carrying the haplotype A-C-Met was 1.82 (95% confidence interval, 1.29-2.78, P = 0.009). Conclusions: The haplotype, A-C-Met, in the UCP1 gene is significantly associated with the increased genetic risk for developing type 2 diabetes in Asian Indians.