Methodology for Pavement Design Reliability and Back Analysis Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

Given the increasing cost of designing and building new highway pavements, reliability analysis has become vital to ensure that a given pavement performs as expected in the field. Recognizing the importance of failure analysis to safety, reliability, performance, and economy, back analysis has been employed in various engineering applications to evaluate the inherent uncertainties of the design and analysis. The probabilistic back analysis method formulated on Bayes' theorem and solved using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm has proved to be highly efficient to address this issue. It is also quite flexible and is applicable to any type of prior information. In this paper, this method has been used to back-analyze the parameters that influence the pavement life and to consider the uncertainty of the mechanistic-empirical pavement design model. The load-induced pavement structural responses (e.g., stresses, strains, and deflections) used to predict the pavement life are estimated using the response surface methodology model developed based on the results of linear elastic analysis. The failure criteria adopted for the analysis were based on the factor of safety (FOS), and the study was carried out for different sample sizes and jumping distributions to estimate the most robust posterior statistics. From the posterior statistics of the case considered, it was observed that after approximately 150 million standard axle load repetitions, the mean values of the pavement properties decrease as expected, with a significant decrease in the values of the elastic moduli of the expected layers. An analysis of the posterior statistics indicated that the parameters that contribute significantly to the pavement failure were the moduli of the base and surface layer, which is consistent with the findings from other studies. After the back analysis, the base modulus parameters show a significant decrease of 15.8% and the surface layer modulus a decrease of 3.12% in the mean value. The usefulness of the back analysis methodology is further highlighted by estimating the design parameters for specified values of the factor of safety. The analysis revealed that for the pavement section considered, a reliability of 89% and 94% can be achieved by adopting FOS values of 1.5 and 2, respectively. The methodology proposed can therefore be effectively used to identify the parameters that are critical to pavement failure in the design of pavements for specified levels of reliability. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000455. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Strength reliability and in vitro degradation of three-dimensional powder printed strontium-substituted magnesium phosphate scaffolds

Strontium ions (Sr2+) are known to prevent osteoporosis and also encourage bone formation. Such twin requirements have motivated researchers to develop Sr-substituted biomaterials for orthopaedic applications. The present study demonstrates a new concept of developing Sr-substituted Mg-3(PO4)(2) - based biodegradable scaffolds. In particular, this work reports the fabrication, mechanical properties with an emphasis on strength reliability as well as in vitro degradation of highly biodegradable strontium-incorporated magnesium phosphate cements. These implantable scaffolds were fabricated using three-dimensional powder printing, followed by high temperature sintering and/or chemical conversion, a technique adaptable to develop patient-specific implants. A moderate combination of strength properties of 36.7 MPa (compression), 242 MPa (bending) and 10.7 MPa (tension) were measured. A reasonably modest Weibull modulus of up to 8.8 was recorded after uniaxial compression or diametral tensile tests on 3D printed scaffolds. A comparison among scaffolds with varying compositions or among sintered or chemically hardened scaffolds reveals that the strength reliability is not compromised in Sr-substituted scaffolds compared to baseline Mg-3(PO4)(2). The micro-computed tomography analysis reveals the presence of highly interconnected porous architecture in three-dimension with lognormal pore size distribution having median in the range of 17.74-26.29 mu m for the investigated scaffolds. The results of extensive in vitro ion release study revealed passive degradation with a reduced Mg2+ release and slow but sustained release of Sr2+ from strontium-substituted magnesium phosphate scaffolds. Taken together, the present study unequivocally illustrates that the newly designed Sr-substituted magnesium phosphate scaffolds with good strength reliability could be used for biomedical applications requiring consistent Sr2+-release, while the scaffold degrades in physiological medium. Statement of significance The study investigates the additive manufacturing of scaffolds based on different strontium-substituted magnesium phosphate bone cements by means of three-dimensional powder printing technique (3DPP). Magnesium phosphates were chosen due to their higher biodegradability compared to calcium phosphates, which is due to both a higher solubility as well as the absence of phase changes (to low soluble hydroxyapatite) in vivo. Since strontium ions are known to promote bone formation by stimulating osteoblast growth, we aimed to establish such a highly degradable magnesium phosphate ceramic with an enhanced bioactivity for new bone ingrowth. After post-processing, mechanical strengths of up to 36.7 MPa (compression), 24.2 MPa (bending) and 10.7 MPa (tension) could be achieved. Simultaneously, the failure reliability of those bioceramic implant materials, measured by Weibull modulus calculations, were in the range of 4.3-8.8. Passive dissolution studies in vitro proved an ion release of Mg2+ and PO43- as well as Sr2+, which is fundamental for in vivo degradation and a bone growth promoting effect. In our opinion, this work broadens the range of bioceramic bone replacement materials suitable for additive manufacturing processing. The high biodegradability of MPC ceramics together with the anticipated promoting effect on osseointegration opens up the way for a patient-specific treatment with the prospect of a fast and complete healing of bone fractures. (C) 2015 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Studies on design, fabrication and reliability assessment of embedded passives on a high-density interconnect (HDI) organic substrate using a sequential build-up process

One of the foremost design considerations in microelectronics miniaturization is the use of embedded passives which provide practical solution. In a typical circuit, over 80 percent of the electronic components are passives such as resistors, inductors, and capacitors that could take up to almost 50 percent of the entire printed circuit board area. By integrating passive components within the substrate instead of being on the surface, embedded passives reduce the system real estate, eliminate the need for discrete and assembly, enhance electrical performance and reliability, and potentially reduce the overall cost. Moreover, it is lead free. Even with these advantages, embedded passive technology is at a relatively immature stage and more characterization and optimization are needed for practical applications leading to its commercialization.This paper presents an entire process from design and fabrication to electrical characterization and reliability test of embedded passives on multilayered microvia organic substrate. Two test vehicles focusing on resistors and capacitors have been designed and fabricated. Embedded capacitors in this study are made with polymer/ceramic nanocomposite (BaTiO3) material to take advantage of low processing temperature of polymers and relatively high dielectric constant of ceramics and the values of these capacitors range from 50 pF to 1.5 nF with capacitance per area of approximately 1.5 nF/cm(2). Limited high frequency measurement of these capacitors was performed. Furthermore, reliability assessments of thermal shock and temperature humidity tests based on JEDEC standards were carried out. Resistors used in this work have been of three types: 1) carbon ink based polymer thick film (PTF), 2) resistor foils with known sheet resistivities which are laminated to printed wiring board (PWB) during a sequential build-up (SBU) process and 3) thin-film resistor plating by electroless method. Realization of embedded resistors on conventional board-level high-loss epoxy (similar to 0.015 at 1 GHz) and proposed low-loss BCB dielectric (similar to 0.0008 at > 40 GHz) has been explored in this study. Ni-P and Ni-W-P alloys were plated using conventional electroless plating, and NiCr and NiCrAlSi foils were used for the foil transfer process. For the first time, Benzocyclobutene (BCB) has been proposed as a board level dielectric for advanced System-on-Package (SOP) module primarily due to its attractive low-loss (for RF application) and thin film (for high density wiring) properties.Although embedded passives are more reliable by eliminating solder joint interconnects, they also introduce other concerns such as cracks, delamination and component instability. More layers may be needed to accommodate the embedded passives, and various materials within the substrate may cause significant thermo -mechanical stress due to coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) mismatch. In this work, numerical models of embedded capacitors have been developed to qualitatively examine the effects of process conditions and electrical performance due to thermo-mechanical deformations.Also, a prototype working product with the board level design including features of embedded resistors and capacitors are underway. Preliminary results of these are presented.

Characterizing drought using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability concept

This study borrows the measures developed for the operation of water resources systems as a means of characterizing droughts in a given region. It is argued that the common approach of assessing drought using a univariate measure (severity or reliability) is inadequate as decision makers need assessment of the other facets considered here. It is proposed that the joint distribution of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (referred to as RRV in a reservoir operation context), assessed using soil moisture data over the study region, be used to characterize droughts. Use is made of copulas to quantify the joint distribution between these variables. As reliability and resilience vary in a nonlinear but almost deterministic way, the joint probability distribution of only resilience and vulnerability is modeled. Recognizing the negative association between the two variables, a Plackett copula is used to formulate the joint distribution. The developed drought index, referred to as the drought management index (DMI), is able to differentiate the drought proneness of a given area when compared to other areas. An assessment of the sensitivity of the DMI to the length of the data segments used in evaluation indicates relative stability is achieved if the data segments are 5years or longer. The proposed approach is illustrated with reference to the Malaprabha River basin in India, using four adjoining Climate Prediction Center grid cells of soil moisture data that cover an area of approximately 12,000 km(2). (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A media access and feedback protocol for reliable multicast over wireless channel

A link level reliable multicast requires a channel access protocol to resolve the collision of feedback messages sent by multicast data receivers. Several deterministic media access control protocols have been proposed to attain high reliability, but with large delay. Besides, there are also protocols which can only give probabilistic guarantee about reliability, but have the least delay. In this paper, we propose a virtual token-based channel access and feedback protocol (VTCAF) for link level reliable multicasting. The VTCAF protocol introduces a virtual (implicit) token passing mechanism based on carrier sensing to avoid the collision between feedback messages. The delay performance is improved in VTCAF protocol by reducing the number of feedback messages. Besides, the VTCAF protocol is parametric in nature and can easily trade off reliability with the delay as per the requirement of the underlying application. Such a cross layer design approach would be useful for a variety of multicast applications which require reliable communication with different levels of reliability and delay performance. We have analyzed our protocol to evaluate various performance parameters at different packet loss rate and compared its performance with those of others. Our protocol has also been simulated using Castalia network simulator to evaluate the same performance parameters. Simulation and analytical results together show that the VTCAF protocol is able to considerably reduce average access delay while ensuring very high reliability at the same time.

A Fast and Fault-Tolerant Distributed Algorithm for Near-Optimal TDMA Scheduling in WSNs

The time division multiple access (TDMA) based channel access mechanisms perform better than the contention based channel access mechanisms, in terms of channel utilization, reliability and power consumption, specially for high data rate applications in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Most of the existing distributed TDMA scheduling techniques can be classified as either static or dynamic. The primary purpose of static TDMA scheduling algorithms is to improve the channel utilization by generating a schedule of smaller length. But, they usually take longer time to schedule, and hence, are not suitable for WSNs, in which the network topology changes dynamically. On the other hand, dynamic TDMA scheduling algorithms generate a schedule quickly, but they are not efficient in terms of generated schedule length. In this paper, we propose a novel scheme for TDMA scheduling in WSNs, which can generate a compact schedule similar to static scheduling algorithms, while its runtime performance can be matched with those of dynamic scheduling algorithms. Furthermore, the proposed distributed TDMA scheduling algorithm has the capability to trade-off schedule length with the time required to generate the schedule. This would allow the developers of WSNs, to tune the performance, as per the requirement of prevalent WSN applications, and the requirement to perform re-scheduling. Finally, the proposed TDMA scheduling is fault-tolerant to packet loss due to erroneous wireless channel. The algorithm has been simulated using the Castalia simulator to compare its performance with those of others in terms of generated schedule length and the time required to generate the TDMA schedule. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm generates a compact schedule in a very less time.

RD-TDMA: A Randomized and Distributed TDMA Scheduling for Correlated Contention in WSNs

In wireless sensor networks (WSNs), contention occurs when two or more nodes in a proximity simultaneously try to access the channel. The contention causes collisions, which are very likely to occur when traffic is correlated. The excessive collision not only affects the reliability and the QoS of the application, but also the lifetime of the network. It is well-known that random access mechanisms do not efficiently handle correlated-contention, and therefore, suffer from high collision rate. Most of the existing TDMA scheduling techniques try to find an optimal or a sub-optimal schedule. Usually, the situation of correlated-contention persists only for a short duration, and therefore, it is not worthwhile to take a long time to generate an optimal or a sub-optimal schedule. We propose a randomized distributed TDMA scheduling (RD-TDMA) algorithm to quickly generate a feasible schedule (not necessarily optimal) to handle correlated-contention in WSNs. In RD-TDMA, a node in the network negotiates a slot with its neighbors using the message exchange mechanism. The proposed protocol has been simulated using the Castalia simulator to evaluate its runtime performance. Simulation results show that the RD-TDMA algorithm considerably reduces the time required to schedule.