Regionalization of precipitation in data sparse areas using large scale atmospheric variables - A fuzzy clustering approach

Delineation of homogeneous precipitation regions (regionalization) is necessary for investigating frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological droughts. The conventional methods of regionalization use statistics of precipitation as attributes to establish homogeneous regions. Therefore they cannot be used to form regions in ungauged areas, and they may not be useful to form meaningful regions in areas having sparse rain gauge density. Further, validation of the regions for homogeneity in precipitation is not possible, since the use of the precipitation statistics to form regions and subsequently to test the regional homogeneity is not appropriate. To alleviate this problem, an approach based on fuzzy cluster analysis is presented. It allows delineation of homogeneous precipitation regions in data sparse areas using large scale atmospheric variables (LSAV), which influence precipitation in the study area, as attributes. The LSAV, location parameters (latitude, longitude and altitude) and seasonality of precipitation are suggested as features for regionalization. The approach allows independent validation of the identified regions for homogeneity using statistics computed from the observed precipitation. Further it has the ability to form regions even in ungauged areas, owing to the use of attributes that can be reliably estimated even when no at-site precipitation data are available. The approach was applied to delineate homogeneous annual rainfall regions in India, and its effectiveness is illustrated by comparing the results with those obtained using rainfall statistics, regionalization based on hard cluster analysis, and meteorological sub-divisions in India. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regionalization of precipitation in India-a review

Regionalization of precipitation refers to delineation of rain gauges in an area into homogeneous groups (clusters or regions). Various regionalization procedures are employed by researchers in hydrometeorology for addressing a wide spectrum of problems. This paper provides an overview of underlying concepts as well as advantages and limitations of procedures that have been developed over the past six decades. Emphasis is given to studies that have been carried out in India. Following this, gaps where more research needs to be focussed are highlighted, and challenges for regionalization in a climate change scenario are discussed.

Regionalization of extreme rainfall in India

Regionalization of extreme rainfall is useful for various applications in hydro-meteorology. There is dearth of regionalization studies on extreme rainfall in India. In this perspective, a set of 25 regions that are homogeneous in 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-day extreme rainfall is delineated based on seasonality measure of extreme rainfall and location indicators (latitude, longitude and altitude) by using global fuzzy c-means (GFCM) cluster analysis. The regions are validated for homogeneity in L-moment framework. One of the applications of the regions is in arriving at quantile estimates of extreme rainfall at sparsely gauged/ungauged locations using options such as regional frequency analysis (RFA). The RFA involves use of rainfall-related information from gauged sites in a region as the basis to estimate quantiles of extreme rainfall for target locations that resemble the region in terms of rainfall characteristics. A procedure for RFA based on GFCM-delineated regions is presented and its effectiveness is evaluated by leave-one-out cross validation. Error in quantile estimates for ungauged sites is compared with that resulting from the use of region-of-influence (ROI) approach that forms site-specific regions exclusively for quantile estimation. Results indicate that error in quantile estimates based on GFCM regions and ROI are fairly close, and neither of them is consistent in yielding the least error over all the sites. The cluster analysis approach was effective in reducing the number of regions to be delineated for RFA.

On Selection of Features for Regional Hydrologic Studies

Feature selection is an important first step in regional hydrologic studies (RHYS). Over the past few decades, advances in data collection facilities have resulted in development of data archives on a variety of hydro-meteorological variables that may be used as features in RHYS. Currently there are no established procedures for selecting features from such archives. Therefore, hydrologists often use subjective methods to arrive at a set of features. This may lead to misleading results. To alleviate this problem, a probabilistic clustering method for regionalization is presented to determine appropriate features from the available dataset. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by application to regionalization of watersheds in conterminous United States for low flow frequency analysis. Plausible homogeneous regions that are formed by using the proposed clustering method are compared with those from conventional methods of regionalization using L-moment based homogeneity tests. Results show that the proposed methodology is promising for RHYS.

Coherent rainfall zones of the Indian region

We have delineated rainfall zones for the Indian region that are coherent with respect to the variations of the summer monsoon rainfall. Within each zone, the time series of the summer monsoon rainfall at every pair of stations are significantly positively correlated, and the mean interseries correlation for each zone is high. The interseries correlation data set is analysed in order to delineate the rainfall zones, using an objective method specifically developed for the purpose. Each of the zonal averages are shown to be representative of the zone as a whole. We suggest that this regionalization is appropriate for study of the variation of the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region on interannual and larger scales.

Delineation of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions using wavelet-based global fuzzy cluster analysis

Identification of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions (HMRs) is necessary for various applications. Such regions are delineated by various approaches considering rainfall and temperature as two key variables. In conventional approaches, formation of regions is based on principal components (PCs)/statistics/indices determined from time series of the key variables at monthly and seasonal scales. An issue with use of PCs for regionalization is that they have to be extracted from contemporaneous records of hydrometeorological variables. Therefore, delineated regions may not be effective when the available records are limited over contemporaneous time period. A drawback associated with the use of statistics/indices is that they do not provide effective representation of the key variables when the records exhibit non-stationarity. Consequently, the resulting regions may not be effective for the desired purpose. To address these issues, a new approach is proposed in this article. The approach considers information extracted from wavelet transformations of the observed multivariate hydrometeorological time series as the basis for regionalization by global fuzzy c-means clustering procedure. The approach can account for dynamic variability in the time series and its non-stationarity (if any). Effectiveness of the proposed approach in forming HMRs is demonstrated by application to India, as there are no prior attempts to form such regions over the country. Drought severity-area-frequency (SAF) curves are constructed corresponding to each of the newly formed regions for the use in regional drought analysis, by considering standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the drought indicator.