Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

Meridional gradients in aerosol vertical distribution over Indian Mainland: Observations and model simulations

Multi-year observations from the network of ground-based observatories (ARFINET), established under the project `Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India' (ARFI) of Indian Space Research Organization and space-borne lidar `Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization' (CALIOP) along with simulations from the chemical transport model `Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport' (GOCART), are used to characterize the vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosols over the Indian landmass and its spatial structure. While the vertical distribution of aerosol extinction showed higher values close to the surface followed by a gradual decrease at increasing altitudes, a strong meridional increase is observed in the vertical spread of aerosols across the Indian region in all seasons. It emerges that the strong thermal convections cause deepening of the atmospheric boundary layer, which although reduces the aerosol concentration at lower altitudes, enhances the concentration at higher elevations by pumping up more aerosols from below and also helping the lofted particles to reach higher levels in the atmosphere. Aerosol depolarization ratios derived from CALIPSO as well as the GOCART simulations indicate the dominance of mineral dust aerosols during spring and summer and anthropogenic aerosols in winter. During summer monsoon, though heavy rainfall associated with the Indian monsoon removes large amounts of aerosols, the prevailing southwesterly winds advect more marine aerosols over to landmass (from the adjoining oceans) leading to increase in aerosol loading at lower altitudes than in spring. During spring and summer months, aerosol loading is found to be significant, even at altitudes as high as 4 km, and this is proposed to have significant impacts on the regional climate systems such as Indian monsoon. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constrained Linear Spectral Unmixing Technique for Regional Land Cover Mapping Using MODIS Data

Over the last few decades, there has been a significant land cover (LC) change across the globe due to the increasing demand of the burgeoning population and urban sprawl. In order to take account of the change, there is a need for accurate and up-to-date LC maps. Mapping and monitoring of LC in India is being carried out at national level using multi-temporal IRS AWiFS data. Multispectral data such as IKONOS, Landsat-TM/ETM+, IRS-ICID LISS-III/IV, AWiFS and SPOT-5, etc. have adequate spatial resolution (similar to 1m to 56m) for LC mapping to generate 1:50,000 maps. However, for developing countries and those with large geographical extent, seasonal LC mapping is prohibitive with data from commercial sensors of limited spatial coverage. Superspectral data from the MODIS sensor are freely available, have better temporal (8 day composites) and spectral information. MODIS pixels typically contain a mixture of various LC types (due to coarse spatial resolution of 250, 500 and 1000 in), especially in more fragmented landscapes. In this context, linear spectral unmixing would be useful for mapping patchy land covers, such as those that characterise much of the Indian subcontinent. This work evaluates the existing unmixing technique for LC mapping using MODIS data, using end-members that are extracted through Pixel Purity Index (PPI), Scatter plot and N-dimensional visualisation. The abundance maps were generated for agriculture, built up, forest, plantations, waste land/others and water bodies. The assessment of the results using ground truth and a LISS-III classified map shows 86% overall accuracy, suggesting the potential for broad-scale applicability of the technique with superspectral data for natural resource planning and inventory applications. Index Terms-Remote sensing, digital

Contrained linear spectral unmixing technique for regional land cover mapping using MODIS data

Over the last few decades, there has been a significant land cover (LC) change across the globe due to the increasing demand of the burgeoning population and urban sprawl. In order to take account of the change, there is a need for accurate and up- to-date LC maps. Mapping and monitoring of LC in India is being carried out at national level using multi-temporal IRS AWiFS data. Multispectral data such as IKONOS, Landsat- TM/ETM+, IRS-1C/D LISS-III/IV, AWiFS and SPOT-5, etc. have adequate spatial resolution (~ 1m to 56m) for LC mapping to generate 1:50,000 maps. However, for developing countries and those with large geographical extent, seasonal LC mapping is prohibitive with data from commercial sensors of limited spatial coverage. Superspectral data from the MODIS sensor are freely available, have better temporal (8 day composites) and spectral information. MODIS pixels typically contain a mixture of various LC types (due to coarse spatial resolution of 250, 500 and 1000 m), especially in more fragmented landscapes. In this context, linear spectral unmixing would be useful for mapping patchy land covers, such as those that characterise much of the Indian subcontinent. This work evaluates the existing unmixing technique for LC mapping using MODIS data, using end- members that are extracted through Pixel Purity Index (PPI), Scatter plot and N-dimensional visualisation. The abundance maps were generated for agriculture, built up, forest, plantations, waste land/others and water bodies. The assessment of the results using ground truth and a LISS-III classified map shows 86% overall accuracy, suggesting the potential for broad-scale applicability of the technique with superspectral data for natural resource planning and inventory applications.

Decision support system for regional electricity planning

Electricity appears to be the energy carrier of choice for modern economics since growth in electricity has outpaced growth in the demand for fuels. A decision maker (DM) for accurate and efficient decisions in electricity distribution requires the sector wise and location wise electricity consumption information to predict the requirement of electricity. In this regard, an interactive computer-based Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed to compile, analyse and present the data at disaggregated levels for regional energy planning. This helps in providing the precise information needed to make timely decisions related to transmission and distribution planning leading to increased efficiency and productivity. This paper discusses the design and implementation of a DSS, which facilitates to analyse the consumption of electricity at various hierarchical levels (division, taluk, sub division, feeder) for selected periods. This DSS is validated with the data of transmission and distribution systems of Kolar district in Karnataka State, India.

A novel filtering framework through Girsanov correction for the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems

Using a Girsanov change of measures, we propose novel variations within a particle-filtering algorithm, as applied to the inverse problem of state and parameter estimations of nonlinear dynamical systems of engineering interest, toward weakly correcting for the linearization or integration errors that almost invariably occur whilst numerically propagating the process dynamics, typically governed by nonlinear stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Specifically, the correction for linearization, provided by the likelihood or the Radon-Nikodym derivative, is incorporated within the evolving flow in two steps. Once the likelihood, an exponential martingale, is split into a product of two factors, correction owing to the first factor is implemented via rejection sampling in the first step. The second factor, which is directly computable, is accounted for via two different schemes, one employing resampling and the other using a gain-weighted innovation term added to the drift field of the process dynamics thereby overcoming the problem of sample dispersion posed by resampling. The proposed strategies, employed as add-ons to existing particle filters, the bootstrap and auxiliary SIR filters in this work, are found to non-trivially improve the convergence and accuracy of the estimates and also yield reduced mean square errors of such estimates vis-a-vis those obtained through the parent-filtering schemes.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

An Ensemble Kushner-Stratonovich-Poisson Filter for Recursive Estimation in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

We propose a Monte Carlo filter for recursive estimation of diffusive processes that modulate the instantaneous rates of Poisson measurements. A key aspect is the additive update, through a gain-like correction term, empirically approximated from the innovation integral in the time-discretized Kushner-Stratonovich equation. The additive filter-update scheme eliminates the problem of particle collapse encountered in many conventional particle filters. Through a few numerical demonstrations, the versatility of the proposed filter is brought forth.