The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of nonstationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physically Based, Hydrologic Model Results Based on Three Precipitation Products

The main objective of the study is to examine the accuracy of and differences among simulated streamflows driven by rainfall estimates from a network of 22 rain gauges spread over a 2,170 km2 watershed, NEXRAD Stage III radar data, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 satellite data. The Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), a physically based, distributed parameter, grid-structured, hydrologic model, was used to simulate the June-2002 flooding event in the Upper Guadalupe River watershed in south central Texas. There were significant differences between the rainfall fields estimated by the three types of measurement technologies. These differences resulted in even larger differences in the simulated hydrologic response of the watershed. In general, simulations driven by radar rainfall yielded better results than those driven by satellite or rain-gauge estimates. This study also presents an overview of effects of land cover changes on runoff and stream discharge. The results demonstrate that, for major rainfall events similar to the 2002 event, the effect of urbanization on the watershed in the past two decades would not have made any significant effect on the hydrologic response. The effect of urbanization on the hydrologic response increases as the size of the rainfall event decreases.

An exploration framework to identify and track movement of cloud systems

We describe a framework to explore and visualize the movement of cloud systems. Using techniques from computational topology and computer vision, our framework allows the user to study this movement at various scales in space and time. Such movements could have large temporal and spatial scales such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has a spatial scale ranging from 1000 km to 10000 km and time of oscillation of around 40 days. Embedded within these larger scale oscillations are a hierarchy of cloud clusters which could have smaller spatial and temporal scales such as the Nakazawa cloud clusters. These smaller cloud clusters, while being part of the equatorial MJO, sometimes move at speeds different from the larger scale and in a direction opposite to that of the MJO envelope. Hitherto, one could only speculate about such movements by selectively analysing data and a priori knowledge of such systems. Our framework automatically delineates such cloud clusters and does not depend on the prior experience of the user to define cloud clusters. Analysis using our framework also shows that most tropical systems such as cyclones also contain multi-scale interactions between clouds and cloud systems. We show the effectiveness of our framework to track organized cloud system during one such rainfall event which happened at Mumbai, India in July 2005 and for cyclone Aila which occurred in Bay of Bengal during May 2009.

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Classification calibration dimension for general multiclass losses

We study consistency properties of surrogate loss functions for general multiclass classification problems, defined by a general loss matrix. We extend the notion of classification calibration, which has been studied for binary and multiclass 0-1 classification problems (and for certain other specific learning problems), to the general multiclass setting, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for a surrogate loss to be classification calibrated with respect to a loss matrix in this setting. We then introduce the notion of \emph{classification calibration dimension} of a multiclass loss matrix, which measures the smallest `size' of a prediction space for which it is possible to design a convex surrogate that is classification calibrated with respect to the loss matrix. We derive both upper and lower bounds on this quantity, and use these results to analyze various loss matrices. In particular, as one application, we provide a different route from the recent result of Duchi et al.\ (2010) for analyzing the difficulty of designing `low-dimensional' convex surrogates that are consistent with respect to pairwise subset ranking losses. We anticipate the classification calibration dimension may prove to be a useful tool in the study and design of surrogate losses for general multiclass learning problems.

Crop Classification using Biologically-inspired Techniques with High Resolution Satellite Image

Remote sensing provides a lucid and effective means for crop coverage identification. Crop coverage identification is a very important technique, as it provides vital information on the type and extent of crop cultivated in a particular area. This information has immense potential in the planning for further cultivation activities and for optimal usage of the available fertile land. As the frontiers of space technology advance, the knowledge derived from the satellite data has also grown in sophistication. Further, image classification forms the core of the solution to the crop coverage identification problem. No single classifier can prove to satisfactorily classify all the basic crop cover mapping problems of a cultivated region. We present in this paper the experimental results of multiple classification techniques for the problem of crop cover mapping of a cultivated region. A detailed comparison of the algorithms inspired by social behaviour of insects and conventional statistical method for crop classification is presented in this paper. These include the Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC), Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) and Ant Colony Optimisation (ACO) techniques. The high resolution satellite image has been used for the experiments.

A Classification of Homogeneous Operators in the Cowen-Douglas Class

A complete list of homogeneous operators in the Cowen-Douglas class B-n(D) is given. This classification is obtained from an explicit realization of all the homogeneous Hermitian holomorphic vector bundles on the unit disc under the action of the universal covering group of the bi-holomorphic automorphism group of the unit disc.

Cluster analysis of rainfall stations of the Indian peninsula

Principal component analysis is applied to derive patterns of temporal variation of the rainfall at fifty-three stations in peninsular India. The location of the stations in the coordinate space determined by the amplitudes of the two leading eigenvectors is used to delineate them into eight clusters. The clusters obtained seem to be stable with respect to variations in the grid of stations used. Stations within any cluster occur in geographically contiguous areas.

Classification and rating of strong-motion earthquake records

Ninety-two strong-motion earthquake records from the California region, U.S.A., have been statistically studied using principal component analysis in terms of twelve important standardized strong-motion characteristics. The first two principal components account for about 57 per cent of the total variance. Based on these two components the earthquake records are classified into nine groups in a two-dimensional principal component plane. Also a unidimensional engineering rating scale is proposed. The procedure can be used as an objective approach for classifying and rating future earthquakes.

Site classification and estimation of surface level seismic hazard using geophysical data and probabilistic approach

This paper presents the site classification of Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area using geophysical data and the evaluation of spectral acceleration at ground level using probabilistic approach. Site classification has been carried out using experimental data from the shallow geophysical method of Multichannel Analysis of Surface wave (MASW). One-dimensional (1-D) MASW survey has been carried out at 58 locations and respective velocity profiles are obtained. The average shear wave velocity for 30 m depth (Vs(30)) has been calculated and is used for the site classification of the BMP area as per NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program). Based on the Vs(30) values major part of the BMP area can be classified as ``site class D'', and ``site class C'. A smaller portion of the study area, in and around Lalbagh Park, is classified as ``site class B''. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out to map the seismic hazard in terms spectral acceleration (S-a) at rock and the ground level considering the site classes and six seismogenic sources identified. The mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for S. have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of spectral acceleration for short period and long period are mapped for rock, site class C and D with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km. In addition to this, the Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at surface level has been developed for the 5% damping and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock, site class C and D These spectral acceleration and uniform hazard spectrums can be used to assess the design force for important structures and also to develop the design spectrum.

Microprocessor-based event sequence recorder

An event sequence recorder is a specialized piece of equipment that accepts inputs from switches and contactors, and prints the sequence in which they operate. This paper describes an event sequence recorder based on an Intel 8085 microprocessor. It scans the inputs every millisecond and prints in a compact form the channel number, type of event (normal or abnormal) and time of occurrence. It also communicates these events over an RS232C link to a remote computer. A realtime calendar/clock is included. The system described has been designed for continuous operation in process plants, power stations etc. The system has been tested and found to be working satisfactorily.

K-Ar ages of biotite and muscovite from Pangong metamorphic complex, Shyok suture zone, India: Implications for the youngest post-collision metamorphic event in Ladakh Himalaya

The garnet-kyanite-staurolite and garnet-biotite-staurolite gneisses were collected from a locality within Lukung area that belongs to the Pangong metamorphic complex in Shyok valley, Ladakh Himalaya. The kyanite-free samples have garnet and staurolite in equilibrium, where garnets show euhedral texture and have flat compositional profile. On the other hand, the kyanite-bearing sample shows equilibrium assemblage of garnet-kyanite-staurolite along with muscovite and biotite. In this case, garnet has an inclusion rich core with a distinct grain boundary, which was later overgrown by inclusion free euhedral garnet. Garnet cores are rich in Mn and Ca, while the rims are poor in Mn and rich in Fe and Mg, suggesting two distinct generations of growth. However, the compositional profiles and textural signature of garnets suggests the same stage of P -T evolution for the formation of the inclusion free euhedral garnets in the kyanite-free gneisses and the inclusion free euhedral garnet rims in the kyanite-bearing gneiss. Muscovites from the four samples have consistent K-Ar ages, suggesting the cooling age (∼ 10 Ma) of the gneisses. These ages make a constraint on the timing of the youngest post-collision metamorphic event that may be closely related to an activation of the Karakoram fault in Pangong metamorphic complex.