Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Constrained Linear Spectral Unmixing Technique for Regional Land Cover Mapping Using MODIS Data

Over the last few decades, there has been a significant land cover (LC) change across the globe due to the increasing demand of the burgeoning population and urban sprawl. In order to take account of the change, there is a need for accurate and up-to-date LC maps. Mapping and monitoring of LC in India is being carried out at national level using multi-temporal IRS AWiFS data. Multispectral data such as IKONOS, Landsat-TM/ETM+, IRS-ICID LISS-III/IV, AWiFS and SPOT-5, etc. have adequate spatial resolution (similar to 1m to 56m) for LC mapping to generate 1:50,000 maps. However, for developing countries and those with large geographical extent, seasonal LC mapping is prohibitive with data from commercial sensors of limited spatial coverage. Superspectral data from the MODIS sensor are freely available, have better temporal (8 day composites) and spectral information. MODIS pixels typically contain a mixture of various LC types (due to coarse spatial resolution of 250, 500 and 1000 in), especially in more fragmented landscapes. In this context, linear spectral unmixing would be useful for mapping patchy land covers, such as those that characterise much of the Indian subcontinent. This work evaluates the existing unmixing technique for LC mapping using MODIS data, using end-members that are extracted through Pixel Purity Index (PPI), Scatter plot and N-dimensional visualisation. The abundance maps were generated for agriculture, built up, forest, plantations, waste land/others and water bodies. The assessment of the results using ground truth and a LISS-III classified map shows 86% overall accuracy, suggesting the potential for broad-scale applicability of the technique with superspectral data for natural resource planning and inventory applications. Index Terms-Remote sensing, digital

Regional Differences in the Influence of Irrigation on Climate

A global climate model experiment is performed to evaluate the effect of irrigation on temperatures in several major irrigated regions of the world. The Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.3, was modified to represent irrigation for the fraction of each grid cell equipped for irrigation according to datasets from the Food and Agriculture Organization. Results indicate substantial regional differences in the magnitude of irrigation-induced cooling, which are attributed to three primary factors: differences in extent of the irrigated area, differences in the simulated soil moisture for the control simulation (without irrigation), and the nature of cloud response to irrigation. The last factor appeared especially important for the dry season in India, although further analysis with other models and observations are needed to verify this feedback. Comparison with observed temperatures revealed substantially lower biases in several regions for the simulation with irrigation than for the control, suggesting that the lack of irrigation may be an important component of temperature bias in this model or that irrigation compensates for other biases. The results of this study should help to translate the results from past regional efforts, which have largely focused on the United States, to regions in the developing world that in many cases continue to experience significant expansion of irrigated land.

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previous termBull spermnext term heads and tails have been separated by proteolytic digestion (trypsin) and previous termplasma membranesnext term have been isolated, using discontinuous sucrose density gradient centrifugation. previous termPlasma membranenext term bound Ca2+-ATPase is shown to be associated mostly with the tail previous termmembranes.next term Pyrene excimer fluorescence and diphenylhexatriene fluorescence polarization experiments indicate a more fluid lipid phase in the tail region. Differences in surface charge distribution have been found, using 1-anilinonaphthalene-8-sulfonate and Tb3+ as fluorescent probes.

Regional differentiation in bull sperm plasma-membranes

Bull sperm heads and tails have been separated by proteolytic digestion (trypsin) and plasma membranes have been isolated, using discontinuous sucrose density gradient centrifugation. Plasma membrane bound Ca2+-ATPase is shown to be associated mostly with the tail membranes. Pyrene excimer fluorescence and diphenylhexatriene fluorescence polarization experiments indicate a more fluid lipid phase in the tail region. Differences in surface charge distribution have been found, using 1-anilinonaphthalene-8-sulfonate and Tb3+ as fluorescent probes.

Regional variation in the composition and structure of mixed-species bird flocks in the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka

Mixed-species bird flocks are attractive models for the investigation of geographical variation in animal communities, as they represent a subset of the avifauna in most forested regions of the world. Yet studies of the regional variation in flock size and the composition of flocks are few, due to the predominance of studies carried out at single study site. Here, we review nine studies of mixed-species flocks conducted at 16 sites along the Western Ghats in India and in Sri Lanka. We find that flock size varies as much within this region as it does globally, with observation time being a confounding variable. Flock composition, however, is predictably related to elevation. Flocks at high elevations (>1200 m) in the Western Ghats strongly resemble flocks at high elevations in the mountain ranges of Sri Lanka in their composition, especially at the family level. We compare these flocks to flocks of other regions and make recommendations on study methodology that can facilitate comparisons across studies.

Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Male-female differences in foraging on crops by Asian elephants

Males and females may differ in morphology or behaviour because of contrasting factors affecting their reproductive success. In polygynous mammals with a marked sexual dimorphism, males are more likely to exhibit risky behaviour promoting reproductive success (Trivers 1985). In this study the authors present evidence that pubertal and adult male Asian elephants, Elephas maximus (above 15 years) incur greater risks than female-led family herds by foraging on cultivated crops which have more nutritive value than wild food plants.

Optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops using genetic algorithms

This paper presents a genetic algorithm (GA) model for obtaining an optimal operating policy and optimal crop water allocations from an irrigation reservoir. The objective is to maximize the sum of the relative yields from all crops in the irrigated area. The model takes into account reservoir inflow, rainfall on the irrigated area, intraseasonal competition for water among multiple crops, the soil moisture dynamics in each cropped area, the heterogeneous nature of soils. and crop response to the level of irrigation applied. The model is applied to the Malaprabha single-purpose irrigation reservoir in Karnataka State, India. The optimal operating policy obtained using the GA is similar to that obtained by linear programming. This model can be used for optimal utilization of the available water resources of any reservoir system to obtain maximum benefits.

An integrated model for optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops

An integrated model is developed, based on seasonal inputs of reservoir inflow and rainfall in the irrigated area, to determine the optimal reservoir release policies and irrigation allocations to multiple crops. The model is conceptually made up of two modules, Module 1 is an intraseasonal allocation model to maximize the sum of relative yields of all crops, for a given state of the system, using linear programming (LP). The module takes into account reservoir storage continuity, soil moisture balance, and crop root growth with time. Module 2 is a seasonal allocation model to derive the steady state reservoir operating policy using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). Reservoir storage, seasonal inflow, and seasonal rainfall are the state variables in the SDP. The objective in SDP is to maximize the expected sum of relative yields of all crops in a year. The results of module 1 and the transition probabilities of seasonal inflow and rainfall form the input for module 2. The use of seasonal inputs coupled with the LP-SDP solution strategy in the present formulation facilitates in relaxing the limitations of an earlier study, while affecting additional improvements. The model is applied to an existing reservoir in Karnataka State, India.

Contrained linear spectral unmixing technique for regional land cover mapping using MODIS data

Over the last few decades, there has been a significant land cover (LC) change across the globe due to the increasing demand of the burgeoning population and urban sprawl. In order to take account of the change, there is a need for accurate and up- to-date LC maps. Mapping and monitoring of LC in India is being carried out at national level using multi-temporal IRS AWiFS data. Multispectral data such as IKONOS, Landsat- TM/ETM+, IRS-1C/D LISS-III/IV, AWiFS and SPOT-5, etc. have adequate spatial resolution (~ 1m to 56m) for LC mapping to generate 1:50,000 maps. However, for developing countries and those with large geographical extent, seasonal LC mapping is prohibitive with data from commercial sensors of limited spatial coverage. Superspectral data from the MODIS sensor are freely available, have better temporal (8 day composites) and spectral information. MODIS pixels typically contain a mixture of various LC types (due to coarse spatial resolution of 250, 500 and 1000 m), especially in more fragmented landscapes. In this context, linear spectral unmixing would be useful for mapping patchy land covers, such as those that characterise much of the Indian subcontinent. This work evaluates the existing unmixing technique for LC mapping using MODIS data, using end- members that are extracted through Pixel Purity Index (PPI), Scatter plot and N-dimensional visualisation. The abundance maps were generated for agriculture, built up, forest, plantations, waste land/others and water bodies. The assessment of the results using ground truth and a LISS-III classified map shows 86% overall accuracy, suggesting the potential for broad-scale applicability of the technique with superspectral data for natural resource planning and inventory applications.